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The latest poll from Suffolk University shows Democrat Jon Corzine pulling away in the New Jersey Governor’s race, holding a 42-33 lead over Republican Chris Christie, with independent Chris Daggett receiving just 7% of the vote, far less than other polls show. Unlike other polls, the Suffolk poll reflected the actual number of candidates that will be on the ballot, which does affect Daggett’s chances:
The Suffolk University poll, which included all 12 candidates whose names are printed on the ballot, points to the possibility that the confusing New Jersey ballot ultimately will hurt the campaign of independent Chris Daggett. Daggett is polling 7 percent statewide. His name appears in different locations on the ballot, depending on the county. Some counties list the candidates in rows while others use columns, yet in all 21 counties, the Democrat or Republican is listed first or second in every case.
“Independent Chris Daggett struggles to be found on the ballot, which benefits Jon Corzine, whose campaign is peaking at the right time for him,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. “The poll tells us that voters believe Corzine is the best choice of the twelve candidates and the most comfortable choice of the major three. The bottom line is that, if this trend holds, it will be an amazing comeback for Jon Corzine.”
I would think this is the most accurate way to poll that race, although it may under-count Daggett’s support to a certain extent. Importantly, undecided voters were seen as breaking to Corzine in this poll.
Corzine just released a spate of new ads over the weekend, including a bilingual spot featuring President Obama.
…perhaps Republicans should worry less about Daggett and more about the appeal of their own candidate.
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I don’t live in NJ, but because I live in a Philly burb, it’s impossible not to hear about this race.
Christie would be a disaster!
Notice the different results in the Deeds-McDonnell race in VA, where Deeds tacked way to the right and is still losing despite the recent scandalous revelations about McDonnell’s hyperconservative intentions. By contrast, Corzine’s tacked left and thus was able to define himself as different from Christie, an action which motivates the Democratic base to vote for him and helps him take advantage of Christie’s own scandals in a way that Deeds can’t.
But of course you won’t see the TradMed talk about it in these terms, since they’re programmed to pretend that, especially where one’s electoral health is concerned, conservatism is good and liberalism is bad.