For those of you scoring at home, I thought I’d lay out exactly what the major races are next Tuesday, November 3. From Maine to California, New Jersey to Washington state, there are several significant races on the ballot, all of which will be spun by Democrats and Republicans as indicative of the national mood. But each have their own peculiarities about them.
NJ-Gov: In New Jersey, a three-way race may be enough to save embattled incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, as he fends off Republican Chris Christie and independent (right-leaning) Chris Daggett. The polling shows this race close, but Corzine will have more money and probably a better GOTV operation in the final week. Health care has emerged as an issue late in the campaign, with Corzine vowing to opt in to a public option if New Jersey had the opportunity, and Christie vowing to opt out. That’s a clear distinction that you rarely see, and it could provide a tipping point.
VA-Gov: Democrat Creigh Deeds has been playing more like Republican lite in his campaign against Republican Bob McDonnell, and not even a late visit from the President is likely to be enough to pull this one out, as McDonnell is showing double-digit leads in the polls. Expect every Republican to state that this race and this alone means that Obama is deeply unpopular and the nation has turned on him.
NY-23: A mundane race between conservative Dem Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava got very interesting when Conservative Party candidate and teabagger dream Doug Hoffman entered the race. Hoffman has received the support of Republicans who have defied the party – Fred Thompson even cut an ad for him – and though he apparently knows nothing about the district, he has become a symbol of the war inside the GOP between the merely crazy and the truly crazy. This split has set up an opportunity for Owens to pick up a formerly GOP seat for the Democrats for the first time in this region since the 1850s, though some partisan polls show Hoffman in front. It remains to be seen if Hoffman has any institutional network to help him get out the vote. The race has generated national attention, with the LA Times and the New York Times publishing profiles yesterday.
CA-10: California Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is expected to prevail in this race over Republican David Harmer. Harmer keeps touting polls that show he wins among people who know who he is, which means exceedingly little, and conservatives have talked themselves into this surprise, but Garamendi has a lot more money and is a proven vote-getter. And, health care fans, he strongly supports a public option.
Maine – Question 1: This would repeal the gay marriage law passed by the Legislature back in the spring. The same forces that passed Prop. 8 in California have re-teamed for a reunion, but this time the No side is better equipped and better run. Still, polls have shown a tough fight, as both sides pour resources into the relatively cheap state. A win here for marriage equality supporters would mark the first time that gay marriage survived a repeal or won any ballot measure. While history is on the side of equality, this vote will show whether or not that time has arrived. The New York Times has a good update today.
Washington – Referendum 71: Washington’s Governor, Christine Gregoire, passed a law this year allowing domestic partnerships with practically all the rights of marriage. The law then goes to the voters for approval. Anti-gay groups have assailed the proposed law, even while in Maine groups with the same ideology are touting domestic partnerships as something they can live with. Polls have shown the measure winning broadly, and it would be difficult for the double-talk of “we just don’t like the word ‘marriage,’ but we don’t like domestic partnerships either!” to work.
There are also numerous big-city mayoral races across the country, including in New York City (where Michael Bloomberg and his $85 million dollar war chest looks good for re-election), Seattle, Boston, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Charlotte, Detroit and several others. Here’s a pretty good roundup.




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thanks David
Also, Washington, initiative 1033. A very bad tax-cutting initiative to the one that’s done so much damage in Colorado.
Hate is an extreme emotion yes? Having said that well I just hates me a bunch o Republican hypocrits. I try not to hate but the Repubs have and continue to hurt as many poor and needy in a race to out-due each other to be mean and nasty to America.
What that bum christie said he would plan to opt out???!!! I really dont like that guy now. . . luckily i live in VA now where we are certain to get a wingnut governor this year.
VA: the race there is actually between a Republican (not a Republican-lite) named Deeds and a Regents U-educated Talibanical Klansman.
McDonnell’s Regents U college thesis:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/McDonnell_thesis_082909.pdf
Washington’s Governor, Christine Gregoire,
passeda law this yearThis is unusually sloppy wording for dday, as it’s Civics 101 that governors sign or veto bills that become laws, they don’t pass them. Sorry to pick nits, but it’s this kind of sloppy framing that devalues the legislative in favor of the executive, which is anti-democratic in the worst way. If we want our legislators to grow nice strong spines, as they must if our democracy is to survive, then we need to reward them for this kind of good behavior. Democratic legislators took a stand to pass this law, they shouldn’t be overlooked by writing them out of the story.
And yes, they might have done better by making full marriage the law, but that’s another matter, hopefully for next term.
Keeping score? Do you live in California?
John Garamendi supports SINGLE PAYER as FORMER INSURANCE COMMISSIONER!
Of course he’ll win, California has had it with Republicans unless you live in Rural Areas, San Diego or Orange County.
From “pitchfroks and torches” at
http://comments.realclearpolitics.com/read/1/483836.html
“I’m a home grown American citizen, 53, registered Democrat all my life. Before the last presidential election I registered as a Republican because I no longer felt the Democratic Party represents my views or works to pursue issues important to me. Now I no longer feel the Republican Party represents my views or works to pursue issues important to me. The fact is I no longer feel any political party or representative in Washington represents my views or works to pursue the issues important to me. There must be someone. Please tell me who you are. Please stand up and tell me that you are there and that you’re willing to fight for our Constitution as it was written. Please stand up now. You might ask yourself what my views and issues are that I would horribly feel so disenfranchised by both major political parties. What kind of nut job am I? Will you please tell me?
Well, these are briefly my views and issues for which I seek representation:
One, illegal immigration.. I want you to stop coddling illegal immigrants and secure our borders. Close the underground tunnels. Stop the violence and the trafficking in drugs and people. No amnesty, not again. Been there, done that, no resolution. P.S., I’m not a racist. This isn’t to be confused with legal immigration.
Two, the STIMULUS bill, I want it repealed and I want no further funding supplied to it. We told you no, but you did it anyway. I want the remaining unfunded 95% repealed. Freeze, repeal.
Three: Czars, I want the circumvention of our checks and balances stopped immediately. Fire the czars. No more czars. Government officials answer to the process, not to the president. Stop trampling on our Constitution and honor it.
Four, cap and trade. The debate on global warming is not over. There is more to say.
Five, universal healthcare. I will not be rushed into another expensive decision. Don’t you dare try to pass this in the middle of the night and then go on break. Slow down!
Six, growing government control. I want states rights and sovereignty fully restored. I want less government in my life, not more. Shrink it down. Mind your own business. You have enough to take care of with your real obligations. Why don’t you start there.
Seven, ACORN. I do not want ACORN and its affiliates in charge of our 2010 census. I want them investigated. I also do not want mandatory escrow fees contributed to them every time on every real estate deal that closes. Stop the funding to ACORN and its affiliates pending impartial audits and investigations. I do not trust them with taking the census over with our taxpayer money. I don’t trust them with our taxpayer money. Face up to the allegations against them and get it resolved before taxpayers get any more involved with them. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, hello. Stop protecting your political buddies. You work for us, the people. Investigate.
Eight, redistribution of wealth. No, no, no. I work for my money. It is mine. I have always worked for people with more money than I have because they gave me jobs. That is the only redistribution of wealth that I will support. I never got a job from a poor person. Why do you want me to hate my employers? Why — what do you have against shareholders making a profit?
Nine, charitable contributions.. Although I never got a job from a poor person, I have helped many in need. Charity belongs in our local communities, where we know our needs best and can use our local talent and our local resources. Butt out, please. We want to do it ourselves.
Ten, corporate bailouts. Knock it off. Sink or swim like the rest of us. If there are hard times ahead, we’ll be better off just getting into it and letting the strong survive. Quick and painful. Have you ever ripped off a Band-Aid? We will pull together. Great things happen in America under great hardship. Give us the chance to innovate. We cannot disappoint you more than you have disappointed us.
Eleven, transparency and accountability. How about it? No, really, how about it? Let’s have it. Let’s say we give the buzzwords a rest and have some straight honest talk. Please try — please stop manipulating and trying to appease me with clever wording. I am not the idiot you obviously take me for. Stop sneaking around and meeting in back rooms making deals with your friends. It will only be a prelude to your criminal investigation. Stop hiding things from me..
Twelve, unprecedented quick spending. Stop it now.
Take a breath. Listen to the people. Let’s just slow down and get some input from some nonpoliticians on the subject. Stop making everything an emergency. Stop speed reading our bills into law. I am not an activist. I am not a community organizer. Nor am I a terrorist, a militant or a violent person. I am a parent and a grandparent. I work. I’m busy. I’m busy. I am busy, and I am tired. I thought we elected competent people to take care of the business of government so that we could work, raise our families, pay our bills, have a little recreation, complain about taxes, endure our hardships, pursue our personal goals, cut our lawn, wash our cars on the weekends and be responsible contributing members of society and teach our children to be the same all while living in the home of the free and land of the brave.
I entrusted you with upholding the Constitution. I believed in the checks and balances to keep from getting far off course. What happened? You are very far off course. Do you really think I find humor in the hiring of a speed reader to unintelligently ramble all through a bill that you signed into law without knowing what it contained? I do not. It is a mockery of the responsibility I have entrusted to you. It is a slap in the face. I am not laughing at your arrogance. Why is it that I feel as if you would not trust me to make a single decision about my own life and how I would live it but you should expect that I should trust you with the debt that you have laid on all of us and our children. We did not want the TARP bill.. We said no. We would repeal it if we could. I am sure that we still cannot. There is such urgency and recklessness in all of the recent spending.
From my perspective, it seems that all of you have gone insane. I also know that I am far from alone in these feelings. Do you honestly feel that your current pursuits have merit to patriotic Americans? We want it to stop. We want to put the brakes on everything that is being rushed by us and forced upon us. We want our voice back. You have forced us to put our lives on hold to straighten out the mess that you are making. We will have to give up our vacations, our time spent with our children, any relaxation time we may have had and money we cannot afford to spend on you to bring our concerns to Washington . Our president often knows all the right buzzword is unsustainable. Well, no kidding.. How many tens of thousands of dollars did the focus group cost to come up with that word? We don’t want your overpriced words Stop treating us like we’re morons.
We want all of you to stop focusing on your reelection and do the job we want done, not the job you want done or the job your party wants done. You work for us and at this rate I guarantee you not for long because we are coming. We will be heard and we will be represented. You think we’re so busy with our lives that we will never come for you? We are the formerly silent majority, all of us who quietly work , pay taxes, obey the law, vote, save money, keep our noses to the grindstone and we are now looking up at you. You have awakened us, the patriotic freedom spirit so strong and so powerful that it had been sleeping too long.. You have pushed us too far. Our numbers are great. They may surprise you. For every one of us who will be there, there will be hundreds more that could not come. Unlike you, we have their trust. We will represent them honestly, rest assured. They will be at the polls on voting day to usher you out of office. We have cancelled vacations. We will use our last few dollars saved. We will find the representation among us and a grassroots campaign will flourish. We didn’t ask for this fight. But the gloves are coming off. We do not come in violence, but we are angry. You will represent us or you will be replaced with someone who will. There are candidates among us when he will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes that you have made of our constitution.
Democrat, Republican, independent, libertarian. Understand this. We don’t care. Political parties are meaningless to us Patriotic Americans are willing to do right by us and our Constitution and that is all that matters to us now. We are going to fire all of you who abuse power and seek more. It is not your power. It is ours and we want it back. We entrusted you with it and you abused it. You are dishonorable. You are dishonest. As Americans we are ashamed of you. You have brought shame to us. If you are not representing the wants and needs of your constituency loudly and consistently, in spite of the objections of your party, you will be fired. Did you hear? We no longer care about your political parties. You need to be loyal to us, not to them. Because we will get you fired and they will not save you. If you do or can represent me, my issues, my views, please stand up. Make your identity known. You need to make some noise about it. Speak up. I need to know who you are. If you do not speak up, you will be herded out with the rest of the sheep and we will replace the whole @#$%& congress if need be one by one. We are coming. Are we coming for you? Who do you represent? What do you represent? Listen. Because we are coming. We the people are coming.”