Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Christina Romer made this statement on the GDP increase of 3.5% in the third quarter:
“Data released today by the Commerce Department show that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of the year. This is in stark contrast to the decline of 6.4 percent annual rate just two quarters ago. Indeed, the two-quarter swing in the rate of growth of 9.9 percentage points was the largest since 1980. Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter. This suggests that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter.”
“After four consecutive quarters of decline, positive GDP growth is an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is moving in the right direction. However, this welcome milestone is just another step, and we still have a long road to travel until the economy is fully recovered. The turnaround in crucial labor market indicators, such as employment and the unemployment rate, typically occurs after the turnaround in GDP. And it will take sustained, robust GDP growth to bring the unemployment rate down substantially. Such a decline in unemployment is, of course, what we are all working to achieve.”
Romer is correctly skeptical that we have turned the corner, while obviously needing to tout the numbers from a political standpoint. The fact that as much as half of the growth came from the cash for clunkers program is a testament to that (from the report: “Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the
third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.”) In addition, the new jobless claims remain high, at over 500,000 a week, well more than what would be needed for the job numbers to actually reverse itself. We are in a “less bad” mode at this point, but that’s not necessarily going to come as comfort to anyone facing this labor market.
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24K per car for clunkers, a total loss on the part of Americans except those rich enough to not need an auto loan.
Brilliant. The words this person uses are English. I can see that. The syntax however does not resemble any known linguistic pattern. It is full of suggestions, right direction, still have a long way to go, and a hope for reduced unemployment.
Nice to know our government officials are totally incompetent not only in their jobs, but in their ability to communicate with other English speaking persons.
The indicators she cites clearly show we are in about up to our necks in a swamp and that there is nothing we will be willing to do to fix that mess. Why is our government lying to us about this yet again? Trouble perchance?
Romer is pitiful. She reminded me of one of those blow-up punching bag toys that keeps bouncing back with a smile on its face. Kinda like the Administration.
And now we find out those 30,000 jobs that were to be created by last February’s stimulus bill is way too high….by at least 15-20% (AP). Who the heck was doing the original counting…..ACORN?
If I had to guess, I would say that government spending and programs like Cash for Clunkers were responsible for almost all the growth seen. There was also a much vaunted but I think pretty anemic spate of refilling inventory that was expected. There was a dash or two from the stimulus. The military Keynesianism of the wars. And seasonal factors where you would expect construction and building to go on. But what is important to realize is that this was the high point of Administration efforts to turn the economy around and they really didn’t.
It is going to be a really cold winter for us and the economy. Our Potemkin stock market is now a fully mature bubble and could go at any time. The Cash for Clunkers was a buy forward program, meaning that it spurred demand now at the price of depressing it later.
The Administration has not even begun to grapple with the MERS mess and this could well be the problem that finally takes down the banks and exposes their insolvency and the full extent of the fraud and Ponzi finance behind them.
The cash for clunkers program was gushed over by the progressives. In the end there was roughly double the buyers remorse than without such a program. Also the fuel increase required were so minimual (as little as one mile per gallon improvement) that no real energy savings could have been hoped for.
This was a typical government boondoggle…just like the first time home buyers credit is destined to be.
The problem with the first time home buyers program is that most of those who used it were going to buy a home anyway. So its stimulation of home buying was marginal. And if only 1 in 5 were new home buyers because of the program, that put its cost per extra new home sold at something like $40,000 per. It was a program that sounded good but was not well thought through.
Well, well, well: stupidity is not just for conservatives, eh?
IF what is stated above is true and the Cash for Clunkers program was responsible for nearly half of the economic growth, then logic would tell a person that such a program should not only be restarted, but expanded.
Not here I guess.
Oh well.
Have a nice day: :)
I don’t disagree. The fact that the CFC program has wound down does not bode well for future growth. And the state budget cycle is about to wind up again, which will probably lead to more unemployment and spending cuts. We’re in big trouble without more public investment and creative thinking. The homebuyer’s credit, on the other hand, is awful.
I dunno, the cynic in me says that CFC was too successful: it not only expanded the workforce, it had the effect of enhancing nearly all. The money did not flow on a conduit into one particular place: workers, car dealers, loan officers, junk dealers, and manufacturing concerns all benefited.
In America, if it does not please the financial services industry, it is no good.
IMHO the program should be expanded and made permanent until unemployment falls below 10% in all of the states. The money spent is actually spread throughout the economy and multiplies.
If you are concerned that the cars bought were not quite environmentally a “Good” as you would like, I would posit that ANY new car is less-polluting than many old cars.
But as I said, this does not really please the banksters, so. . . .
Blue Texan’s regularly scheduled post is up and ready: “Disgraceful: In 8 Years, George W. Bush Never Greeted Fallen Troops”
What’s MERS mess?
Does MERS Registration and Mortgage Fractionalization Extinguish Mortgage Rights?
and NY Bankruptcy Court Wipes Out MERS Registered Mortgage New Trend in Foreclosures
As someone facing this labor market, thanks for this reminder.
FunnyWheelieDiva
highly educated, very experienced, unemployed.
Nobody has said we WEREN’T up to our necks. That’s where Bush left us.
How can you say “there is nothing we will be doing to fix that mess” after the trillions loaned, guaranteed or stimulus spent?
I think she was being quite precise. We’re still in trouble, we’re working hard to get out of it, the first sign of recovery was the stock market and now the GDP looks good, but there is a long way to go.
What’s hard to understand about that?
Everybody likes to kvetch. We’re doing too much? We’re not doing enough? Surely there’s some other better way?
Why does nobody complain about the banks not lending or about businesses which won’t raise pay or employ more people? This is supposed to be a free country isn’t it? Why so much whining and complaining about gov’t instead of what will get us out of this…business expansion.
Sure sure, a lot of the gov’t stimulus stuff is (what’s the word?) half-assed. What else could gov’t do? It shoves money out the door to as many well-meaning hopefully useful projects as it can. This is not exactly what gov’t is originally designed to do and it’s unfair to blame them for how well it works.
A lot of people complain it’s not stimulating the economy. Well, now we see it actually is. But, does that stop the complaining? No. Give it a break folks. This takes time and requires the private sector to participate and so far they’ve been very hesitant to do so.
You want to blow stuff up, call on gov’t (military). You want to build things look to the private sector. The gov’t is just trying to keep the boat afloat until the financial sector is better regulated and the private sector can regain it’s feet. In an economy this big to expect gov’t to re-inflate it or somehow make it go for long is a fantasy.
As Hugh said, the stock market is hoping and praying the economy catches up. I think we should all hope for that. After a 6% decrease it has produced +3% this qtr and if you erase part of that created by the gov’t there’s still a bit of private growth. Let’s hope that continues to grow. Remember too, there is (I think) a bit more stimulus money going out the door to keep things propped up for some time to come.
Get off the “we’re all doomed!” bandwagon. That leads nowhere.