Earlier this week, Jane Hamsher dared Blanche Lincoln to filibuster health care on The Rachel Maddow Show, saying that if she did “she’d have a primary opponent so fast it’d make your head spin.”

A new Research 2000 poll out of Arkansas shows that suspicion likely to be correct. Using the same wording as the New York Times Poll on the public option, 56% of Arkansas respondents are in favor of it, with only 37% opposed. Blanche Lincoln’s favorability score is down to 41%, and she is seen as generally ineffective in the Senate by a majority of respondents. In fact, when asked if she should be the Democratic nominee again, only 12% of Arkansans agreed, with 43% preferring to see someone new and 45% undecided. And if she decided to vote against a health care bill or side with Republicans in a filibuster, large pluralities in the poll say it would make them less likely to vote for her in 2010. Independents track mostly with Democrats on this front.

By filibustering health care reform, Lincoln would not be “voting her state” but voting contrary to the opinions of her state, regardless of the conventional wisdom.