There’s going to be a lot of talk about winners and losers in the media this week after today’s elections. Before knowing the outcome, I think it’s clear who one loser is – Florida Governor Charlie Crist. The success of the conservative movement in driving out a moderate Republican in NY-23 will embolden that same crowd, and Crist appears at the top of every hit list. He is facing conservative Marco Rubio in Florida’s Senate election, and Crist’s past support of the stimulus package in particular makes him an inviting target. Also, Rubio actually has some decent fundraising numbers and a campaign operation at this early stage, along with credibility among the teabaggers.

But if Crist does get tripped up in the primary, parochial factors are probably more to blame. A new poll in Florida shows Crist with an all-time low 42% approval rating. The fact is that it’s just a bad time to be a governor, especially in a state deep into recession like Florida, where the housing bubble has exploded and unemployment is on the rise. This is the factor behind Jon Corzine’s deadlocked race in New Jersey – there’s an anti-incumbent and especially an anti-gubernatorial incumbent mood out there.

Crist would be the highest-profile name to go down to defeat if Rubio does win the primary next year. And already, conservatives wanting to please the base are taking sides. This amusing story is just the beginning of the war inside the GOP:

A Florida Republican lawmaker on Monday accused Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) of hypocrisy for supporting the Conservative Party nominee in the New York special election and backing centrist GOPer Gov. Charlie Crist (Fla.) in the state’s Senate primary.

Rep. Jeff Miller (R-Fla.) said in a Facebook note in that he National Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman’s support for Hoffman is “ironic since [he] tried to force [Marco Rubio] out of the Primary in Florida.”

Cornyn late Sunday said that the local upstate New York Republican Party that nominated moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava “paid the price” for doing so without holding a primary election. Scozzafava dropped out of the race to replace former Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) on Saturday, citing poor polling and fundraising [...]

“Why are they trying to shut out the conservative vote in Florida? How come NY ‘paid the price’ for picking nominee but it would be ok for FL to do the same in the Senate,” wrote Miller.

At least something about future troubles for Democrats may be extrapolated tonight. But conservative activists seem more interested in hunting moderates in their own party and building institutional power for when they can return to the Congress or the Presidency in future years. And on that front, they’re succeeding.