So, you might have noticed that I took an interest in the elections last night. The scoreboard was that Democrats lost the Governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, won a nice pickup in NY-23 where they hdn’t been in office since 1871 and took a seat in CA-10 with an ideological shift toward a progressive. Gay rights suffered a defeat in Maine, but scored victories in Washington state and Kalamazoo, MI, where the word “marriage” was not on the ballot. Michael Bloomberg got a scare in New York City, Charlotte elected its first Democratic mayor in 30 years, Chapel Hill, NC elected a gay mayor, and an openly gay woman finished first for mayor of Houston, Texas.

I don’t think these results fit into a nice and neat story, despite how the media will try to graft one on it. A few thoughts:

• All politics is local. Creigh Deeds lost because he ran a bad race. Jon Corzine got sucked up by a bad economy. Doug Hoffman tried to run on national issues and local issues – most important, defying local leaders – tripped him up. John Garamendi had far more name ID in California. Bloomberg won by the skin of his teeth because he spent $100 million. People are more accepting of gay rights, but in Maine they couldn’t embrace the word “marriage.” There are local narratives for these local races.

(Incidentally, Democrats held the New Jersey state Assembly, so this was local in the sense of being about individuals, too.)

• Rough to be an incumbent: Corzine’s loss and Bloomberg’s near-loss (if the Democrat was supported at all that could have been a different story) do suggest that, in a down economy, the tendency to want to “throw the bums out” is pretty strong. It may not matter if the party in power is Republican or Democratic, however. Corzine and Bloomberg both represent the Wall Street establishment, too, although Corzine governed as more of a progressive and Bloomberg as a plutocrat.

• Taxed Enough Already (or not)!: The crackup in NY-23, defying expectations, will only cause further fissures in the Republican Party between the establishment and the conservative movement. The finger-pointing will be fast and furious. In the end, I would say that Hoffman received his institutional support, the kind that could actually get out the vote, far too late, and Dede Scozzafava got her revenge (Owens basically won the race with a strong performance in Scozzafava’s backyard). As Josh Marshall noted two anti-tax “TABOR” initiatives went down hard in Washington state and Maine, proving that the tea party movement is localized and small, very much so compared to the amount of attention it generates. But of course, the NY-23 story was all about building institutional power inside the Republican Party to make sure that conservatives are ready as the default choice when the cycle of politics return to their side.

• Don’t trust the polls. They were way off in NY-23, and only one out of eight nailed NJ-Gov (Chris Daggett losing the bulk of his support to Christie really screwed them up there). The polls were generally on in VA-Gov (59-41 McDonnell) and CA-10 (53-43 Garamendi), and the gay rights measures in Maine and Washington state were much harder to measure. Special elections are very hard to figure, especially the turnout model, which made it difficult on pollsters.

• Find the progressive economic message. I stand by my reading from yesterday about the lack of a progressive economic pushback. A moderate ran in Virginia and got trounced because he lost his base. Corzine was simply an incumbent facing a stiff headwind, and his campaign was relentlessly negative, although on the issues he was progressive. Voters in NY-23 rejected a far-right conservative (though local issues played a big role) and in CA-10 they accepted an unabashed progressive. The point is that the unemployment rate in the next year will track with Democratic fortunes. And we’re not going to do much about the unemployment rate until an economic program to get people back to work is engaged. And that means changing the narrative around economics, away from debt mania and toward public investment.

• A good night for the public option. On an immediate political level, health care got a boost last night. John Garamendi is a strong supporter of health care with a public option – he has signed the pledge not to support a bill without one. Despite being known generally as a conservative Dem, Bill Owens endorsed health care reform and the public option in the final debate. I expect both of them to be votes for the rule and the final bill, and I think Nancy Pelosi will need every vote she can get.

Now, if you want the insanely simple view, here’s Adam Nagourney.