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Saturday is the day. There will be an historic health care vote on the floor of the House, and if the bill passes, reform will be closer than ever before. The leadership has been at this for months, counting votes and soothing concerns, and you would not expect them to bring a vote to the floor until those votes were lined up. Still, whether to wrong out every last drop of drama or as a reflection of genuine concern, news reports today are not definitive on whether or not Nancy Pelosi has the 218 votes she needs for passage. And the fact that flu-ridden Linda Sanchez will be on hand to vote, despite missing the entire week of legislating due to sickness, shows that every vote will probably count.
Pelosi has a 40-vote cushion, thanks to the addition of two new Democrats in elections on Tuesday, John Garamendi (D-CA) and Bill Owens (D-NY). President Obama is meeting with Owens today in the Oval Office, and called himself a supporter of health care reform and the House bill during the campaign.
There are some definite no votes among Democrats. The New York Times counts Ike Skelton (D-MO), Artur Davis (D-AL), Travis Childers (D-MS), Bart Gordon (D-TN), Jim Marshall (D-GA), Dan Boren (D-OK), Bobby Bright (D-AL), Collin Peterson (D-MN) and Gene Taylor (D-MS). Two of those are committee chairs, and it’s frankly amazing that they cannot be whipped into line.
Adding to those 9 definite no votes, according to a whip count at The Hill, are John Boccieri (D-OH, “citing cost-containment concerns,”), Lincoln Davis (D-TN, “wants changes to abortion-related provisions”), Parker Griffith (D-AL, definite no), Walt Minnick (D-ID, “has bucked leadership on big-ticket bills”), and Bart Stupak (D-MI, has led the anti-abortion flank).
So that’s 14 no votes.
The Washington Post suggests that there are 25 “hard no” votes, meaning Pelosi’s cushion would be down to 15. But they do not name names.
The WaPo does highlight two important pieces that threaten to take down the bill: abortion and immigration. We’ve talked extensively about the abortion provision; Bart Stupak appears to be bluffing in his contention that he has enough votes to “take down the rule” and block the bill from coming to the floor if his preferred language, which would effectively ban private insurers from covering legal reproductive choice services in the individual and small group markets, doesn’t make it in. The 30 names leaked do not include Boccieri, Skelton, Gordon and Minnick, so if that list were true, he’d be up to 34. But that’s unclear at the moment.
As far as immigration goes, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is threatening to take down the bill if it goes too far in restricting immigrants from purchasing health care insurance with their own money:
Party leaders are considering relenting on the more restrictive Senate language on illegal immigrants, in the hope of removing a contentious issue from the long list of concerns that must be worked out in a final House-Senate conference. That concerns wavering Hispanic members [...]
The lawmakers made their case in a meeting with Obama on Thursday afternoon, but they said they received no commitment. Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez (D-N.Y.) said that the Hispanic caucus has 20 votes riding on the issue and that if the language changes, “I guess they won’t have those 20 votes.” She said of Obama, “He listened to us, and he knows where we stand.”
As far as named NO votes, we have 14. Open Left says Larry Kissell is a no, and that’s backed up by my reporting last week. So call it 15.
The Hill has 30 additional Democrats in the undecided category, and that’s where the bill will live or die. Those names:
Adler, Baird, Bean, Berry, Boucher, Cardoza, Clarke, Costa, Edwards, Ellison, Etheridge, Foster, Grijalva, Herseth Sandlin, Hill, Kratovil, Kucinich, Lipinski, Markey, Massa, Matheson, Mitchell, Oberstar, Ortiz, Rodriguez, Loretta Sanchez, Shuler, Space, Sutton, Teague
You’ll notice that a few of these are progressive Democrats, like Clarke, Ellison, Kucinich, and Grijalva. They wanted a floor vote on a robust public option or an amendment allowing states to set up single-payer programs in the bill. Of those, Kucinich is probably a no, but I’d be a bit surprised if anyone joined him.
As for the rest, that’s going to be the task today – finding those votes. I’ll be working on getting this information all day, and so will a lot of other groups. Organizing for America is urging calls. So is AFSCME. And SEIU. And Health Care For America Now. MoveOn.org is taking the stick approach – members have pledged 3.5 million dollars to run primaries against any Democrat who votes against reform.
The stage is set, and we’ll be updating this throughout the day.
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57 members of the cpc signed a letter saying they would vote down a bill that did not include a “robust” public option (by their definition). the current bill unambiguously does not. (there were other pledges, but they are not so unambiguous, so i’m only counting the 57).
jane helped raise hundreds of thousands of dollars (over $400,000 last i looked) to thank them for their stand.
if they cave now and we don’t hold them accountable, then they and we will have NO credibility going forward.
A little more kindling for the fire:
Ex-Blue Cross spokesman says health insurance ‘worst product in American history
‘”I was a spokesman for BlueCross and Blueshield of Florida,” Cobb says. “Call me a spokesjerk. People who make money for buying things you don’t need. And we’re telling you lies.”‘
Thank you, Andy!
LINK.
This is not accurate. Moveon.org’s position is:
There are lots of problems with this bill. Like – no robust public option. And – exchanges are unavailable to 90% of Americans who get shoddy and expensive health insurance from their employers.