A far more troubling milestone for the Democrats than Tuesday’s election results was reached today, as the unemployment rate jumped above 10% for the first time since 1983. 190,000 jobs were lost overall in October, and while the August and September figures were revised upward (-154,000 in Aug., -219,000 in September), the nation is still averaging around 200,000 lost jobs a month in this, the fourth month of what can be described as the “job-loss recovery.”
Weekly job loss claims for last week remained higher that what you would expect if the economy were adding jobs, so increased job loss is likely to continue in the short term. And with worker productivity surging, companies are becoming used to squeezing more out of less, potentially obviating the need for hiring new workers.
This is the dilemma facing Democrats and the White House right now. In New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday core Democratic demos did not turn out at the same rate as in 2008. This core has been hardest hit by the recession, and typically doesn’t turn out in off-year elections anyway. While some conservative Democrats are rattled, they seem not to understand that reversing the economic trajectory is the answer, and that means legislating boldly, not with timidity. Some endangered incumbents are saying they want to focus on jobs, which is correct, but that means forwarding actual policies that would create them:
Setting aside elements of the progressive wish list in order to focus on improving the labor market is a reasonable idea. But this crowd doesn’t have any actual ideas for doing that. It seems to me that there’s good reason to think that resolving uncertainty about the future direction of American energy policy and immigration policy would, in fact, help spur economic growth. But I’d also be amendable to having congress take up additional stimulus legislation as a way to spur economic growth. Or maybe they could do tax reform. But as best one can tell Tanner & Bayh & Lincoln don’t want to do any of those things or anything else. It’s sad.
I think Robert Reich has this right, and so does Paul Krugman today. There are very real dangers associated with being timid on economic policy right now, for example, with not legislating strongly on health care and energy, offering health security to individuals and businesses while lowering costs, and building a new energy economy while saving the planet from disaster and the crushing costs associated with that. And the country needs more economic stimulus. The first one was too small, and it staved off disaster but did not reverse unemployment. Just a small mini-stimulus like cash for clunkers amounted to a substantial portion of economic growth in the third quarter. We need more policies like that. Here’s Krugman:
Administration officials would presumably argue that they were constrained by political realities, that a bolder policy couldn’t have passed Congress. But they never tested that assumption, and they also never gave any public indication that they were doing less than they wanted. The official line was that policy was just right, making it hard to explain now why more is needed [...]
The problem is that it’s not clear what Mr. Obama can do about this prospect. Conventional wisdom in Washington seems to have congealed around the view that budget deficits preclude any further fiscal stimulus — a view that’s all wrong on the economics, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Meanwhile, the Democratic base, so energized last year, has lost much of its passion, at least partly because the administration’s soft-touch approach to Wall Street has seemed to many like a betrayal of their ideals.
The president, then, having failed to exploit his early opportunities, is pinned down in his too-small beachhead.
And so the cautiousness continues, with ominous consequences for Democratic political futures, but more important, for the livelihoods of millions.
UPDATE: Christina Romer of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers sends this statement:
Today’s employment report contained both signs of hope for recovery and painful evidence of continued labor market weakness.
Payroll employment declined 190,000 in October, continuing the steady trend of moderating job loss that began last spring. Furthermore, the employment loss in both August and September was revised down substantially. Importantly, employment in temporary help services, typically one of the first industries to see job gains, increased by 33,700. The motor vehicle industry also posted employment gains. These are hopeful signs that the unprecedented policy actions are working to stabilize the economy and put us on a path toward recovery.
The unemployment rate, however, rose four-tenths of a percentage point, to 10.2 percent. That this occurred despite the rise in real GDP last quarter reflects both the typical lag between GDP growth and unemployment decline, and the recent exceptional increases in productivity. Having the unemployment rate reach double-digits is a stark reminder of how much work remains to be done before American families see the job gains and reduced unemployment that they need and deserve.
UPDATE II: Former Obama economic adviser Leo Hindery pegs the effective unemployment rate at a shocking 19.2%.



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Since the government can’t solve the problem, it’s time the people start facing unemployment with their own ingenuity:
http://bit.ly/ozqT6
(satire)
Thanks ever so much for including the “effective unemployment rate,” David. Most people don’t even think about that one and yet it’s a very painful reality.
Government can’t? Government won’t. Government is much too busy throwing away our tax dollars on wars rather than using those dollars to improve the lives of the American people, individually and collectively.
Ho hum. Who could have anticipated? Well, who besides the nonentities of Krugman, Roubini, and all us cranks here at FDL. (BTW, I’m attending a lunch on Tuesday where Roubini is speakin,)
Also, BTW, the average duration of unemployment is around 27 weeks, high by historic standards, but less than a year. So if you want to know what percent of the labor force experiences some unemployment during the year, you can multiply the official number by a factor of about 3. (This is not an arithmetic operation but a rule of thumb that I observed by comparing annual data on the percent experiencing some unemployment during the year with the monthly unemployment rate, work I did back in the 1980s.) So that means close to a third of workers will experience some unemployment during the year.
I always appreciate your input on these matters.
The 19% number seems more accure to me based on personal experience. And I live in one of the places in California where unemployment is the lowest.
I do too. Economics–and job numbers analysis–is always a struggle for me to grasp.
I think that there is some consensus (even going into the recession last year) that employment recovery is going to be slow to non-existent. There is even a school of thought that it will take years upon years for employment to recover to pre-recession levels.
Ironically, this may not be altogether a bad thing – the past several slowdowns were rapidly reversed by rapid growth in low-end service jobs and transient construction jobs attendant with strong consumer recoveries. Relatively speaking, each time, ever larger numbers of higher-paying/skilled jobs (blue, sometimes white, collar) were displaced by a growing number of service jobs and increasingly non-union construction. This time, that isn’t happening because of a weaker-than-normal consumer recovery, since consumer deleveraging must come first (people must clean up the debts they owe before they’ll be comfortable splurging no more spending – whether for retail goods or homes). This creates an opportunity on jobs-creation policies that don’t rely as much as in the past on the substitution of skilled jobs with unskilled service jobs.
It’s time for a strong employment policy to focus on manufacturing and entrepreneurship, taking advantage of the weak dollar and the faster-than-expected Asian consumer recovery (we would truly be daft if we actually manage selling less to China than we did in the past, coming out of this.. but then again, our policymakers might truly be daft).
I can’t help think of the $700 BILLION that was thrown down the TARP rathole.
That’s only slightly less than the “budget neutral” number assigned to the feeble health care “reform” stuff Obama’s pimping.
For Christ’s sake, what would $700 BILLION do for education, health care, unemployment benefits, etc., and what did it “buy” us via TARP?
And BTW, where were those “deficit hawks,” both ConservaDem and Republican, when that money was being shoveled out?
The newshour host trotted out the obligatory argument about extending unemployment benefits and the guest did a good job of batting it away. He said, some would argue that extending benefits takes away the incentive to look for work. (ugh!) How do you respond to that?
She said something to the effect of: When unemployment is this high, it’s not the unemployment benefits that are keeping them out of the workforce. Unemployment benefits are only $350/week. That’s not enough to live on. So claiming that that amount of money is going to keep people from looking for work is ridiculous.
which county (if you don’t mind saying)?
eCAHN, it is obvious that Krugman, Roubini, Stiglitz, and others know nothing of value or obama would have them advising him. Those who blog at FDL don’t even know enough to get out of their jammies before they comment on the site. When you are capable of playing 11 dimensional chess and winning (as is being done now) everything has been done and pronounced “Good.”
As disappointed as I am in some of Obama’s “moderate” measures, I’m sick to death of people who say they “want their country back” as if all this destruction happened during the last nine months. JEEZ!
Yeah, let’s give it back to Bush and Cheney. Good grief!!!
The blond on MSNBC just called it The unexpected spike in unemployment. Goes to show you we don’t have to go to Fox to get teh stoopid.
(yes, I’m a little crabby.)
actually the number could be as high as 22%!
check out shadowstats sometimes, instead of just relying of government press releases.
I’m crabby too, demi.
Repukes delay extending unemployment benefits and doing other creepy stuff and then tell everyone it’s Obama’s fault. I’m sick of it.
My local PBS station aired the Civilian Conservation Corps episode of American Experience this week. Should be required watching for all Congresscritters. So very many eerie parallels, particularly the deficit hawking by those opposed to helping the down and out.
Wish I could get my head around a potential modern-day recreation. Lord knows we’ve got enough crumbling infrastructure and enough people who need work.
FunnyWheelieDiva
Marin. Last time I looked at current demographics (last Spring), Marin had the lowest rate of unemployment in the state. Can’t find the link. Ack.
The Bush Administration spent the first $350 billion, and the Obama Administration has $300 billion remaining in the TARP fund which a few weeks ago they announced would go to community banks to lend to small businesses. Just to note.
Part of my answer would be for all congresscritters, including the dolts in the Senate, to go HOME and take an up close and personal tour of their districts and write up a Honey Do list. I’m sure everyone has a “shovel ready” project.
I should also qualify my comment by saying that I’m biased. Chronic skid-row level condition of broke-ness shades one’s perception.
Oh Marin! No link necessary. *g*
thx.
Besides which, there’s a requirement to look for work and if you get audited and don’t have 3 “job contacts” which are pretty narrowly defined, they’ll take back the money from that week.
But maybe it was a reasonable question–if only for audience education. Glad the guest got it right.
FWDiva
Thank goodness. Many small businesses in my area have not made it through this year. independent retail stores, small service providers, etc. Glad they finally figured out a work-around the Big Hoover Banks.
My definition of “small business” is a little different than Cantor and Boehner’s……
The average unemployment check in the US is $1287 per month. That works out to $297 per week. The 14 week extension of benefits at $297 equals $4158. Congress also extended the homebuyer tax credit for people who ALREADY own a home. They get a $6500 credit for purchasing a second home – more than the extension for the average unemployed working stiff. Goes to show that Congress is always on the side of the wealthy.
That’s how I took it: an opportunity for the guest to speak up against the usual BS. The general tone of the interview was that people everywhere are in dire straits and they need help. They are not freeloaders (like the bankers :P)
With EACH soldier in the middle east costing us 1.3 million a year, and new building projects in Afghanistan costing billions, what could we do with THAT kind of money here?
We could start a Clean Green Jobs Initiative.
Nothing with the word “stimulus” in it will get through congress at this point.
yeah, but there is a difference between applying for three jobs a week and seriously looking for work.
The biggest economic stimulus would be a single payer system of healthcare. People would pay less, get more, and jobs would be created. Why do our electeds refuse to see the obvious?/rhetorical
They all having good paying jobs with great benefits. They don’t have to see the obvious. People who are hurting, depressed, out of work or underemployed are more inclined to try and figure out wtf is up.
Maybe?
PS, I’m one of them too.
Bailed out Wall Street is still exporting jobs !
Cue Larry Kudlow to start shrieking about how all the folks collecting unemployment are just using it for an “extended government paid vacation”
Oh, right! Hey, dakine01, would you pass me one them cocktails with a little umbrella in it and I could use a little more sunblock on my back please. /s
With Geithner, Summers and Rham well entrenched and with Obama being audaciously timid don’t expect much to change unless the economy takes a sudden nose dive. Untill the people get out on the streets demanding change it’s going to be business as usual.
Seconded.
Cocktail weenies are now being served on the promenade deck and within the Beltway.
Four Words:
In Fra Struc Ture
The Audacity of Timidity. Catchy title…
Thanks, but no thanks. *g*
Took Amtrak to Chicago this weekend. A trip of 190 miles. It took 6 hours with more than 4 unscheduled stops, 1 for a bridge insepction! Was on the French TGV in June. Traveling the same distance on the TGV would have taken 1 hour. The U.S. is falling behind in infrastructure, education and a green economy. Europe and China are leading the way but Americans are either too ignorant or too timid to realize transformational change is mandatory if the U.S. is to have any future.
I will be pilloried for this, but looking beyond the 10.2% number, it appears there is some good news in these numbers. I think soon the economy will be adding jobs.
However, I agree more needs to be done. I would support a second stimulus bill.
We’re #1 !!!
They were goading the liberal Democrats to vote for the bailout by predicting dire consequences and then did not sign on themselves, except enough to pass it. Read the news items from a year ago. It was quite the little dance that pearl-clutchers did.
We’re big TGV fans as well. I suspect that the train competes too much with our Car Gods and Oil Gods here to get anything truly decent.
And with CIT filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this week, these unemployment numbers are going to get worse.
American exceptionalism!
(It’s not just a slogan, ya know.)
Europeans love their cars as well but they recognize the value of having diverse transportation options and are willing to support it. France is currently expanding their high speed rail throughout the country. It’s truly a marvel. Most Americans just don’t have a clue. They still think they are living in the 1950′s when the U.S. was the be all end all.
One point – we don’t actually KNOW that this is the first time we’ve been back in double-digit unemployment in the past eight years. I mean, if unemployment during the Bush Administration had been over 10%, do you think they ever would have let that information be published?
In any event, blaming Obama is still like blaming the guy who cooks your breakfast for your hangover. Granted, time on that caveat is running out, but it’s still the case.
Anyone who hasn’t read The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein needs to get a copy and read it ASAP because it’s the governing corporatocracy’s current economic policy that our elected officials are carrying out.
In what sense can Obama be considered smart and politically astute. Or for that matter principled.
More than anyone else he bears the blame for the current state of affairs and it can rightly be attributed to his lack of strength. Just as nature abhors a vacuum, Obama is abhorrent. In a few short months he has managed to turn everyone against him.
The major decisions facing him at the outset were so great and complex that no one could be expected to resolve them in a flash, or so we were repeatedly told. Not those related to the self induced financial meltdown, the economy, to health care or to the misbegotten wars against terror.
However even to the uninitiated the solutions to these so called overwhelming man made problems seemed and still seem pretty straightforward. What is lacking is the strength to pursue the obvious solutions.
Obama who was heralded as the next messiah by many in a vritual apoplexy of adoration has shown himself to be nothing of the kind. He is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the elite.
Left with virtually no allies, all the heavy lifting seems to fall on the population at large. Nothing short of the threat of being unseated will move those in Congress. I think Reid is the best near term target to serve as an example and every effort should be started as of now to unseat him. He certainly has done enough to deserve it (just think Lieberman). Some credible show of strength is needed.
Barbarea Boxer recently showed what a little spine can accomplish. When faced with non-cooperative members in her energy committee she just ignored them completely and passed her mark-up with no imput from them whatsoever. They could just drop dead.
What a pathetic contrast with Obama.
I was just thinking about all the innovation we have and yet there are so many things exactly like they were in the ’50s. It would be so good for the country to have efficient means of transportation. We took the train once from San Jose to Los Angeles and it took 8 hours – the same as driving time – and it was not a comfortable trip at all. I really loved the Tube in London – perfect.
Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding.
Just try to allow the use of highway funds to build sidewalks and bike paths. At the state level, the service station owners lobby has a freakout and the road contractors lobby takes a bunch of legislators out to lunch.
And at the federal level? Just look at how oil, coal, and nuclear are trying to horn in on the climate change legislation.
It’s energy. And not just producing it. Delivering it. Our entire energy production and distribution methods are so out of date and inefficient it’s mindnumbing. I remember reading somewhere that over 50% of electricity that is produced is “lost” during distribution.
The technologoy is there to improve that. A huge, national works program, focused on new energy production methods (more wind, solar, etc.) coupled with an entirely new distribution system (new lines [preferably more underground], new everything, from production to home).
Sure, it’s a huge task. But one that is perfect for government to tackle in a Depression II. We work on that, not only does it recover the economy now, it makes it stronger and more competitive in the future.
IMO. As always, YMMV.
I saw TCU use this term, “corporatocracy,” last night. Is this term common ’round here? What about the terms “plutocracy” and “plutocrats”?
I think it’s a bit ironic that the last time unemployment was this high was during year 3 of Ronald Reagan’s first term. This current malaise is inside the first year of Obama’s first term, though perhaps it’s more correct to say it’s really in the fifth year of Bush’s last term, economically speaking at least.
Anyway, Reagan was reelected in a landslide, or close to it, in 1984. Of course, Ronnie was a saint, a gift from god, and Obama is naught but a black fellow who may well be a Muslim from Africa, so I guess that partly explains certain attitudes that seem to be standing out and apart these days.
Uhm, the Bush Administration changed the method by which unemployment had been calculated since the Great Depression. The old method is more accurate because it includes the self-employed, underemployed, and unemployed people whose benefits have run out.
The actual rate is 19.2%.
That’s right. The issue isn’t the Rahmian one of whether Democrats will remain in power or retain an adequate majority. (They aren’t using the twin majorities in the House and Senate they have now.) It’s about lives lost and lives abandoned, about stunted marriages, families and children, and stunted prospects for us all, even those not directly affected by depression and under- and unemployment (damned few of us).
It’s about the dangers of economic hardship, about political lethargy from the “winning” Democrats and absolute obstructionism from the Republicans. In desperate times, that will lead to loss of faith that government can do anything about the plight of the vast majority of Americans. When that happens, things get extreme.
When people feel they have or will soon lose everything, that they have no one to turn to and nowhere to go, they become afraid, then they get angry, then some get violent. They turn to demagogues like Limbaugh and Beck, in response to their claims that only by smashing the system can we make it work. Didn’t work for villages in Vietnam, won’t work here. But it will enrich a few and justify ever harsher actions to control the mob.
The Goopers and the national security staters are gearing up for it. They have their federalized, taser and sonic cannon-equiped police forces, fusioned together with raw data that they confuse with intelligence.
The Democrats? They just hope problems will go away before they have to do anything substantive about them, and before the electorate discovers they’ve got nothing but rhetoric and have thrown in their lot with Republicans.
As is the case with global warming, we have time and the talent to create a different outcome. But not a lot of time. And the talent’s wasting. Democratic leadership, it’s time to lead, follow or get out of the way.
I think it was the Clinton Administration that changed the way unemployment is calculated. Whether Bush or Clinton, Republican or Democrat, they are both members of an elite plutocracy.
A little bit off topic, but things could be worse, The Skeptic’s Health Journal club talks about how the Australians accidentally created a mouse superbug, that if it were a human bug could have wiped out civilization. So there’s something to smile about.
http://healthjournalclub.blogspot.com/
I’m voting for ignorance. Most Americans have never been to Europe or on a train here.
David Dayen has another fresh thread up: “Marcy Winograd Takes On Jane Harman Over Biologics”
Europe doesn’t piss away a trillion dollars per year on military nonsense, they invest it in something worthwhile instead.
Americans, in spite of their massive egos, are really not all that bright.
Wow.
I’m sorry, but I read shit like that and think that mankind not only doesn’t really have much of a chance for surviving much longer, but it also doesn’t deserve much of a chance, either.
I mean, right on the internet for all to see, step by step instructions on how to create the most dangerous biological weapon in the history of mankind.
Breaking story about another mass shooting. This time in Orlando.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/06/gateway-center-shooting-a_n_348566.html
Some have said that the planet has a disease and humans are the fever.
Only 25% of the population has a passport. The only thing most Americans know about the rest of the world are the myths and lies of the corporate media. The media has served the interests of the plutocracy well keeping Americans dumbed down through propaganda and indoctrination.
Just speaking for myself, the “New World Order” is the conspiracy of neo-conservatives for world domination by multi-national corporations. Chimpie’s Daddy proposed this in 1991. It might seem goofy and conspiratorial but sometimes conspiracies DO exist. Obviously, The Project For The New American Century, PNAC, said a little too much in their “manifesto”. That we needed a cataclysmic attack such as Pearl Harbor, to permit wars of conquest, especially in the Mideast to steal their Oil. These same neo-cons then started four or five oil wars, depending on how you count.
But nobody promotes elimination of our Constitution and replacement by corporations more than Richard Haas. Haas runs the Council of Foreign Relations. Haas and the CFR want to eliminate governments with their awkward assurances of peace, justice and law. Haas wants Goldman Sachs and Microsoft to run our government.
This last quote about terrorism ignores the fact that US neo-cons supported and provided funding to both the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
link problem, try
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2006/02/21/2003294021
I understand the differences to be that a plutocracy is a nation ruled by the rich; an oligarchy is a nation ruled by a privileged group other than the rich; a corporate oligarchy is a group of influential commercal entities, such as banks, that act at the whim of the oligarchy; and a corporatocracy is a nation ruled by corporations acting in a manner that serves their own interests.
In each case, the governing group acts with little or no regard for the Rule of Law and constitutionally protected civil rights.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutocracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligarchy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligarchy#Corporate_oligarchy
Robert Reich and Paul Krugman do not have a CLUE. It makes me cringe whenever I see them speak.
The corporations that are “recovering” NO LONGER EMPLOY AMERICAN WORKERS. What is it about that so hard to understand? They can recover all they want and we can bail them out all they want BUT IT WON’T CREATE JOBS.
UNTIL OBAMA ADDRESSES NAFTA, OFFSHORING, OUTSOURCING, UNDOCUMENTED AND TOO MANY VISAS, the jobs will not be back here and our kids will have McDonalds jobs forever. And our country will be FOREVER IN DEBT.
Reich and Krugman are stinky with NAFTA. But it is very simple. If you allow American companies WHO ARE SUBSIDIZED BY AMERICAN TAXPAYERS to act like foreign companies, or more accurately, COMPANIES WITHOUT A COUNTRY then this whole system is doomed. Thanks Clinton, you ass.
These guys HAVE IT WRONG.
This guy is dmented and what he proposes is absolute gibberish. It is incoherent.
People are always sovereign as to how they want to run their lives. They enter into societies for that purpose. There is simply no alternative. Any organization represents the interests of the people in that company. But those very same people in those companies belong to their own society apart fom the company.
To conflate the two by this moron is just literally nonsense. Are microsoft employees in Bangkok any less Thailandese. If the US government wants to steal Iraqi oil should the Iraqis cease feeling the need to defend it and cede their sovereignty to it?
It is truly amazing the amount of idiocy that people that have power over widely read journals can spew out.