OK. I’ve basically gone through practically every member in the House. And here’s what I’ve got.

There are 258 Democratic members of the House.

There are 25 definite no votes.

Adler, Baird, Boren, Bright, Childers, A. Davis, L. Davis, Gordon, P.Griffith, Herseth Sandlin, Kissell, Kosmas, Kratovil, Marshall, Massa, Matheson, McMahon, Melancon, Minnick, Peterson, Skelton, Stupak, Tanner, Taylor, Teague

UPDATE: A source tells me McMahon may still be in play.

That leaves 233 members. I’m counting 189 firm yes votes and 44 undecideds. Democrats would need to get 29 on those 44 undecideds to pass the bill. Here’s the names of those undecideds:

Jason Altmire (D-PA) – office says he’s “reviewing the bill closely”; told Bloomberg that the leadership “doesn’t appear to have the votes”
John Barrow (D-GA) – undecided
Melissa Bean (D-IL) – office says she’s “reviewing the entire bill”
Marion Berry (D-AR) – told Fox News he’s undecided
John Boccieri (D-OH) – undecided
Rick Boucher (D-VA) – office says “still in the process of deciding”
Allen Boyd (D-FL) – office says undecided
Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) – The Hill describes him as “lean no”
Chris Carney (D-PA) – undecided
Ben Chandler (D-KY) – leaning no
Jim Cooper (D-TN) – office says undecided
Jim Costa (D-CA) – undecided
Jerry Costello (D-IL) – undecided
Steve Driehaus (D-OH) – hinging on abortion language
Chet Edwards (D-TX) – undecided
Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) – hinging on his abortion language
Bill Foster (D-IL) – office says undecided
Baron Hill (D-IN) – weighing the bill
Jim Himes (D-CT) – lean yes UPDATE: Himes just announced that he’s voting for the bill.
Tim Holden (D-PA) – office says undecided
Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) – office says undecided
Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) – reviewing the bill
Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) – might vote no because of lack of his single-payer amendment: UPDATE based on what he just emailed through the Progressive Democrats of America list, may be a yes vote after all
Dan Lipinski (D-IL) – office says undecided
Dan Maffei (D-NY) – undecided
Betsey Markey (D-CO) – office says undecided
Mike McIntyre (D-NC) – office says undecided
Harry Mitchell (D-AZ) – studying the bill UPDATE: From the comments, he’s committed to voting for the bill.
Allan Mollohan (D-WV) – supports if abortion language clarified
Glenn Nye (D-VA) – still needs to be convinced
James Oberstar (D-MN) – office says undecided UPDATE: Locals expect him to be a yes vote in the end.
Solomon Ortiz (D-TX) – undecided
Tom Perriello (D-VA) – told Morning Joe today he was “closer to yes”
Gary Peters (D-MI) – reviewing the bill
Nick Rahall (D-WV) – supports if abortion language clarified
Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) – undecided
Mike Ross (D-AR) – office says undecided
Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) – this blog post seems to suggest she supports the bill
Adam Schiff (D-CA) – no information
Kurt Schrader (D-OR) – office says undecided
Heath Shuler (D-NC) – GOP Congressman says he’s a no, but could be trash-talking
Adam Smith (D-WA) – undecided
Zack Space (D-OH) – undecided
Betty Sutton (D-OH) – no information

That’s the landscape right now. And I understand why we’re starting to hear about possible slippage on the vote. Because it’s going to be a very heavy lift.

UPDATE: Mike Arcuri (D-NY), Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN) are now in the lean yes/undecided camp. But also, Brian Baird, who announced his opposition today, may be in play.

Given all the updates, I think the count is:
23 definite nos
2 lean nos (McMahon and Baird)
45 undecided/lean yes
188 definite yes