This is not surprising. Giving up on women’s rights made it easier for Blue Dogs to say they extracted something for their vote. We have 33 declared no votes (apparently Loretta Sanchez is flipping around, so that’s down to 32), and in the end that’ll probably be it.

The real question is the Stupak Amendment. And though Stupak has been running his mouth, I’m not at all certain that he has locked up the votes he needs to pass it. We’ll see, and if it’s close the vote is entirely on the head of Nancy Pelosi.

The House will pass a bill tonight with a public insurance option, and that’s not insignificant. But this savage attack on women’s rights has dampened any cheer I’m supposed to get out of that. The underlying vote matters less right now than the Stupak Amendment.