This is really an object lesson in how to win and lose in Congress. Read closely the words of Bart Stupak (Coathanger – MI):

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) told reporters that regardless of the outcome of the vote on his amendment, which would severely restrict coverage of reproductive health issues, the House health care bill is headed for passage. He is whipping support for the amendment and estimates he has 225 votes. If he’s right, the amendment will pass, and he predicted enough pro-life Democrats will vote yes on the final bill to put it over the top. But if it fails, he said, enough pro-lifers — ten to 15, he said — will have been satisfied to have had their vote on the floor that they’ll turn around and support the final bill anyway. Picking up ten to 15 votes would give the bill a comfortable margin for passage.

Again, If Stupak is correct — and there’s no reason to think he’s wrong — then it’s a done deal, and the bill will pass the House.

“The forty members who stood strong with me through this whole deal, I think at least 15 will not vote for the bill no matter what, even if Stupak is adopted,” he said. “Then there might still have been ten to 15 who would vote for it even if we didn’t get our amendment.”

So enough to put it over the top?

“It should be,” he said.

He’s saying that health care reform does not have any bearing on whether the Stupak amendment passes or not. And if the 10 or 15 members he has on the amendment wouldn’t care if it passed or not, so can bet that, with enough leverage, they wouldn’t care if the amendment were held either.

Now, John Boehner’s on the floor calling the Stupak Amendment a shell game. And it is. But the shell game is that Stupak ever had 40 votes to take down the rule whatsoever. He clearly did not. He never made public the 40 names. By contrast, the Progressive Caucus had 60 names on a list claiming they would vote against any bill without a public option. But that wasn’t respected. Stupak was. Because the leadership calculated that progressives would back down, and calculated that Stupak wouldn’t. But Stupak simply didn’t have the votes. He admits that here.

…he also takes a shot at progressives:

“Now, I have not threatened that every time that we went to Rules Committee and we didn’t always get our pro-life amendments, I did not try to take down any rules. You have to pick your fights at the right time. You can’t be crying wolf all the time because you lose your wolfiness. You lose your credibility,” he said. “So I’m not going to lose my credibility. So you use it at certain times when it’s appropriate.”

You can hardly argue with him. Except he was BLUFFING and he won anyway.