Aides in the Senate leadership expect a version of the Stupak amendment to be debated in the Senate, but only as an amendment, not embedded into the bill being merged by Harry Reid.

Amendments on the floor of the House of Representatives typically require a simple majority to pass. Because of the cloture rule, amendments in the Senate often require 60 votes to break a filibuster. It has always been likely that 60 votes would be needed for all amendments on the Senate floor. That was confirmed to me a month ago.

So if the Stupak amendment isn’t included in the merged bill from Harry Reid’s office, it would, in all likelihood, need 60 votes. And it’s very likely that it would have to be inserted through an amendment.

This is true because Reid is blending the bills, not creating new policy. He didn’t include the repeal of the insurance industry’s anti-trust exemption, for example, even though he strongly supports the provision, because it didn’t appear in the bills from the Senate HELP Committee or the Senate Finance Committee. The Stupak amendment language didn’t appear in either or those committees either. In fact, the Senate Finance Committee rejected an amendment similar to the Stupak language during their markup. Kent Conrad was the only Democrat to vote for it, and Olympia Snowe voted against it. The Senate HELP Committee did the same, with only Bob Casey crossing party lines. So there is very little opportunity for Reid to insert language rejected by both panels, barring something extraordinary.

A Senate leadership aide confirmed to me that they “expect” an amendment similar to Stupak on the Senate floor. That means they do not expect it to be embedded in the bill.

It is unclear whether there are 60 votes in the US Senate to restrict choice. In the Senate Finance and Senate HELP Committees, only Bob Casey (D-PA) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) voted for Stupak amendment language, and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) voted against it. Between those two committees, you can count 24 no votes.

Tom Harkin (IA), Christopher Dodd (CT), Barbara A. Mikulski (MD), Jeff Bingaman (NM), Patty Murray (WA), Jack Reed (RI), Bernard Sanders (I) (VT), Sherrod Brown (OH), Kay Hagan (NC), Jeff Merkley (OR), Al Franken (MN), Michael Bennet (CO), Max Baucus (MT), Jay Rockefeller (WV), John Kerry (MA), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Olympia Snowe (ME), Ron Wyden (OR), Chuck Schumer (NY), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Maria Cantwell (WA), Bill Nelson (FL), Bob Menendez (NJ), Tom Carper (DE)

Probably all the women in the Senate, excepting perhaps Kay Bailey Hutchison, could be expected to vote against this amendment as well.

Lisa Murkowski (AK), Barbara Boxer (CA), Dianne Feinstein (CA), Mary Landrieu (LA), Susan Collins (ME), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Claire McCaskill (MO), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)

That’s 33 votes, and there are 30 other Democrats in the caucus, from which only eight would be needed to block the amendment. It would be difficult for anti-choicers to get 60 votes.

If they do not succeed, we would move into conference committee with one committee including Stupak’s language, and one not.

UPDATE: Republican Susan Collins is a confirmed opponent of the Stupak amendment. I continue to stand behind my numbers. Anti-choicers do not have 60 votes in the Senate, in all likelihood.