My view is that the Saturday night vote on health care reform, to proceed to debate, would not have been scheduled without a substantial likelihood that the motion would pass. Harry Reid may have bouts of ineffectual leadership, but he’s not an idiot. And while he said publicly that he’s not using reconciliation to move health care, reports show that he’s still holding out the option privately. So one by one, the ConservaDems have stated their support for the motion to proceed. Ben Nelson announced his intention today in a statement, specifically referring to reconciliation:

For more than a year, Nebraskans and all Americans have debated health care reform in their homes, at work, and with friends at hundreds of town hall meetings.
This weekend, I will vote for the motion to proceed to bring that debate onto the Senate floor. The Senate should start trying to fix a health care system that costs too much and delivers too little for Nebraskans.

Throughout my Senate career I have consistently rejected efforts to obstruct. That’s what the vote on the motion to proceed is all about.

It is not for or against the new Senate health care bill released Wednesday.

It is only to begin debate and an opportunity to make improvements. If you don’t like a bill why block your own opportunity to amend it?

As we have seen before, obstructionists are inviting a move toward reconciliation by opposing this first procedural vote. Let’s be clear. That route shrinks debate and amendments, eliminates bipartisanship and needs only 50 votes to pass a bill.

Truly, the motion to proceed is a simple hurdle to clear, and it’s very difficult for ConservaDems to make a case that they shouldn’t allow debate. Mary Landrieu made similar noises today, though she didn’t fully commit to a yes vote. Dick Durbin said today that Blanche Lincoln has told Harry Reid how she’ll vote (which Lincoln’s office denied); presumably Reid wouldn’t go forward if Lincoln told him she’d be a no.

A lot of this is about getting leverage to make certain changes to the bill. If Nelson, Landrieu, Lincoln and Lieberman aren’t willing to walk away from the table, they have no leverage.

UPDATE: Durbin has now retracted his comments about Lincoln.