We’re at a really tense time in America. The economy is improving mildly but job losses continue to mount. The stimulus package seems to have improved things and saved the country from disaster, but it wasn’t big enough, and its impact is basically peaking right now in terms of how much money is going out. This has raised real fears of a “double-dip recession”:
First, a large part of the growth we’ve had has been driven by the stimulus — but the stimulus has already had its maximum impact on the growth of GDP, will hit its maximum impact on the level of GDP in the middle of next year, and then will begin to fade out. Second, the rise in manufacturing production is to a large extent an inventory bounce — and this, too, will fade out in the quarters ahead.
I’d be more sanguine about all of this if there were any indications that private, final demand is taking off — consumers, business investment, whatever. But I haven’t seen anything suggesting that sort of thing.
Tomorrow, the White House is hosting a “jobs summit,” and some indications are they will look to the private sector to see what they are going to do. Well, with private demand still on the sidelines, there is simply no choice but to add public funding into the mix to create jobs.
Today, the AFL-CIO and other groups held a conference call to discuss a number of job creation strategies, all of which need to be considered to “flood the zone” with a number of projects. The respected economist James Galbraith, who described the budget deficit as the “lifeblood of the economy” at this point (much like he said in a recent conference), the only thing keeping the nation from utter ruin, said that the government cannot do “too much.” In fact, holding back in the initial stimulus package has complicated efforts to go back for more.
The AFL-CIO’s package, described here as a mix of social safety net strengthening, direct employment measures, aid to the states, infrastructure spending, and increased lending to small businesses (something Mark Warner has done a lot of work on) would cost between 400-500 billion dollars, and would create 4 million new jobs. Thea Lee, the labor federation’s deputy chief of staff, said they were supportive of the Economic Policy Institute’s idea to pay for the measure in the out years with a financial transactions tax that starts three years after the inception of the jobs bill. This allows for more public demand immediately while paying for it down the road, after recovery kicks in.
Keith Ellison, the Minnesota progressive Congressman, described the current state of affairs as “The Great Recession” and that workers are being decapitated by rising unemployment and job insecurity. He believed that selling a big new jobs package wouldn’t be easy, but if people understood that they would get something tangible for the spending, they would be receptive. Scaling back public efforts before recovery takes hold would be akin to the “Roosevelt Recession” of 1937-1938, Ellison said, when the fiscal hawks forced cutbacks in spending to balance budgets, and the economy went south again.
Leaders of the effort set a goal of getting something out of the House of Representatives before they left Washington for the end of the year recess on December 18. The Senate is a different matter, though Kent Conrad, as much a budget hawk as anyone, said he thought there was support in the Senate for infrastructure spending and aid to the states, two planks of the five in the AFL-CIO plan. He also cited a job creation tax credit for businesses, which some progressive groups support. The AFL-CIO’s Lee said that it wouldn’t be the best use of scarce dollars.
Whatever the outcome, there needs to be a real sense of urgency in Washington to avoid a second recession and restructure the economy with a stronger foundation for the future. I don’t know if that urgency exists at this point.
Tags: AFL-CIO, Congress, economy, infrastructure, James Galbraith, jobs, Keith Ellison, Kent Conrad, Mark Warner, state spending



18 Comments
Spotlight




Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
That seems like a reasonable request. Especially since they have been more than able to find billions for Wall Street and Wars.
Money for Jobs and Health Care. Who would think?
Clearly there aren’t enough tax cuts and tax credits in this plan to make it acceptable for the GOP to talk about before they unite to vote against it en masse. I hope, this time, no one bends over backwards to accommodate GOPs who won’t vote for the thing anyway.
Yep. We know that 30,000 will be the first of who knows how many escalations in Afghanistan, at $1M per soldier/year. We’ll be treated to a repeat of the arguments to throw money at the “war on drugs.” “We can beat this problem if we have more money to buy more toys and people.” 40 years later there are more drugs on the street than anybody ever imagined. All the troops can look forward to is a transfer from Irak to Afghanistan. Symbolic gestures by the administration while it’s business and endless war as usual. But we don’t have the money for health care or to create jobs.
Instead of creating make work jobs, why not just hold a lottery and let 4,000,000 people win $125,000 each? Cut out the middle man. Given average incomes, this would be boon to many folks, and it would put money directly into the hands of people who would spend it.
Economy improving, job losses mounting and 2+2=5.
This is a time where all issue driven non profits need to recognize that none of what they individually support will be realized as long as the corrupting influence of money in politics is not addressed!
All Unions, all non profits, all rational people should agree to join forces on that one issue first, win it and then proceed to petition a Congress — of the people once again — to redress the inequities.
Ask Jane to start working on it.
or maybe 2+2=3 ?
Robert Reich:
“So let’s be clear: The goal isn’t just more jobs. It’s more jobs with good wages. Which means the fix isn’t just temporary measures to accelerate a jobs recovery, but permanent new investments in the productivity of Americans.
What sort of investments? Big ones that span many years: early childhood education for every young child, excellent K-12, fully-funded public higher education, more generous aid for kids from middle-class and poor families to attend college, good health care, more basic R&D that’s done here in the U.S., better and more efficient public transit like light rail, a power grid that’s up to the task, and so on.”
Anyone read David’s new post over at newsdesk about Blackwater CEO Erik Prince being CIA?
There is no need for makework jobs; there are enough of those in the executive suites. But there is real work that needs to be done that is not being done because the money is not there. Maintaining roads and bridges (not new construction) for example. Backfilling lost revenues of state and local governments so they can hire back police and teachers and public health workers. Just to start the list.
The equivalent of your idea would be to extend unemployment benefits for as long as they are needed and up the benefit level to $5000 a month until the unemployment rate drops below a certain threshold. Being unemployed is pretty much a random selection during a large recession.
First of all, the administration will reject the idea because it is not theirs and might actually work (ask Reich, Stiglitz and Krugman). Secondly, the Congress will reject it because it is not their idea and might actually work. Thirdly, big business will reject it because it does not up-value their stock. Fourthly, the bank lobby will reject it because it does not put cash in their pockets.
The “second depression” is on the way because the banks have already taken all of the money and run and are preparing to do it all over again, the country be damned. Republicans will fight it tooth and nail because it is labor-related (union)and the military establishment will lobby against it because it won’t pay for guns, bombs and airplanes.
The jobs summit will be a sham, Obama will make speeches, good ideas will be thrown out and then thrown out, the week will grind to an end with no health care and no meaningful opposition to the escalation of the war and we will all be told to drink egg nog flavored kool-aide and roast our chestnuts on the fire we made from burning our furniture.
Anyone who believes for even a second that this summit will portend anything other than hot air is delusional.
We’ve just been through an era in which public infrastructure was rabidly ‘privatized’ — see Enron, just for starters. Some of my relatives worked on dams on the Columbia River, built with federal dollars in the 1930s and 1940s, that continue to power the lights, computers, sewing machines, table saws, ovens, phones, and other consumer items that are used by their descendents to this day.
That was ‘public investment’ and federal dollars.
And it pays dividends to this day.
At the time those dams were started, my grandparents were still using an outhouse, but they talked till their last days about the miracle of electric lights. The lights were a bigger deal than when the sewer came in.
The cousins who retired from public utilities still have decent pensions.
The cousins who retired from PGE (Portland Gen Electric), which was bought out by Enron had their savings and retirements vaporized.
So the AFL-CIO needs to tell some of those stories about how people’s pensions have completely vaporized — so much for the ‘efficiency’ of markets, eh?
And just today, I was checking on my elderly parents at the Assisted Living home.
Turns out, Mrs X had to move out and is now living with her daughter and son-in-law. Why? Because her savings and ‘portfolio’, which she had accumulated by frugal habits over many, many years, essentially vaporized in the past year.
And others at the Assisted Living home are worrying themselves sick over whether they can afford to remain there.
This is indeed a remarkable historical moment.
And I wish the AFL-CIO all the best in helping the American public understand how this mess translates into seniors who have saved for years, but are now having to give up their ‘independence’ to live like indigents with their children.
There is a ton of work that needs to be done in this nation, and a lot of it involves simply taking care of people so that we have a social net again.
GREAT video, BTW!
I agree with fuckno. We have a couple of bubbles going on fueled by money sloshing around from the bailouts and we have some limited effects from the stimulus, cash for clunkers, and the like. Almost all the growth we have seen is from government orders. I have always been dubious of the inventory rebuild scenario. No one ever seems to have solid numbers on it which makes me suspicious. At a guess we need $1.3-$1.5 trillion in stimulus a year for the foreseeable future to reverse our unemployment situation. We are more likely to see peanuts from Team Obama.
YOu have to be one hell of a partisan hack to claim the stimulus is working when real unemployment is at 17.5%.
What you said, rOTL, and the way you said it.
I hate to admit this, but a new book by Frank Luntz has a lot of good points worth learning (and seems less partisan than usual)—he addresses this point directly: Americans don’t really understand “infrastructure,” so it doesn’t resonate with them.
They do understand bridges and highways and potholes and dams, etc.
That’s the way we need to go.
The AFL-CIO needs less conference calls talking about solutions that are obvious to anyone who is paying attention. It needs more conference calls about how to make this happen. Having the ideas that will work the best is worth nothing in the Village. Either they flex some muscle, mobilize people, and raise some hell, or they can hold seminars on economics while the Congress passes more tax cuts.
Obama’s modus operandi is to declare all reasonable solutions “off the table” before problem-solving discussions commence thereby exasperating the participants and rendering the discussions pointless. He already floated a trial balloon signaling his intent to focus on reducing the deficit, and despite quite a lot of criticism from progressive economists, I believe he will refuse to do anything that will add to the deficit. Thus, the Job Summit is not about creating jobs; it’s about creating the appearance of caring about creating jobs.
Because of FDR’s disastrous deficit reduction experience that plunged the recovering economy back into the void in 1936-7, we can reliably predict a worse outcome next year because, as far as Main Street is concerned, our economy is still in critical condition. Since he too must know this will be the inevitable outcome, we have to ask ourselves why he would deliberately push us, our families, and the economy off the cliff.
The only answer I can come up with is the Shock Doctrine. I believe he wants to destroy the middle class and labor unions so that we become a two-class society with a rich upper class that owns all of the nation’s wealth and an impoverished and expendable worker class of drones willing to work for peanuts without benefits, job security, or a safety net.
Put another way, Obama is a lying scumbag.
Hi Mason,
I agree that the jobs summit is a PR deal to give him some more time to see if the trend in unemployment turns around so he can advocate spending more time doing nothing about the economy. Also, his problem-solving modus operandi suggests that his vaunted pragmatism is nonsense. Pragmatism is about doing what works. He takes what works off the table and then does something that balances off powerful political interests.
The United States is an increasingly desperate situation, in being unable to turn around its march toward plutocracy. All our major institutions seem captured by this trend. And a closed elitism rules the day. Here at FDL we talk about “The villagers,” and there certainly does seems to be “village” out there in the MSM supporting this trend while laughing all the way to the bank. But even among the netroots, elites rise fast, and then quickly solidify their positions in part by commiserating with each other to create their own village and villager perspectives.