Before serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke was the head of George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, operating in the Christina Romer role. During that period he parroted the rose-colored outlook of the economy that characterized the Bush Administration prior to the Great Recession they created. Matthew Yglesias finds this quote from 2006 from the Economic Report of the President, about the housing bubble:
To gauge the extent to which house price increases have reflected fundamentals, some studies compare housing prices to rents. The rent-to-price ratio is a real rate of return on housing assets in the same way that the earnings-to-price ratio measures the real rate of return on corporate stocks. Viewed as an asset, a home should bear a real return similar to the real return available on alternative assets, such as stocks and bonds. As real interest rates have fallen in the United States and in most other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, the rent-to-price ratio for housing has likewise fallen across a broad range of OECD countries. A recent OECD paper concluded that the decline in the rent-to-price ratio in the United States from 2000 through 2004 was roughly consistent with the decline in interest rates over the same period [...] During the next five years, the Administration expects the pace of home-building to decrease gradually because of demographic trends and slowly rising long-term interest rates.
That’s certainly not all. In the same Economic Report of the President from 2006, he said “The economy has shifted from recovery to sustained expansion … The U.S. economy continues to be well positioned for long-term growth,” and he projected the unemployment rate to remain at 5% through 2011. He continued the rosy predictions for the economy while Fed Chairman, well into June 2008, when he said, “The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.”
And going back to the housing market. This is from a CNBC appearance in 2005:
CNBC INTERVIEWER: “Ben, there’s been a lot of talk about a housing bubble, particularly, you know from all sorts of places. Can you give us your view as to whether or not there is a housing bubble out there?”
BERNANKE: “Well, unquestionably, housing prices are up quite a bit; I think it’s important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We’ve got a growing economy, jobs, incomes. We’ve got very low mortgage rates. We’ve got demographics supporting housing growth. We’ve got restricted supply in some places. So it’s certainly understandable that prices would go up some. I don’t know whether prices are exactly where they should be, but I think it’s fair to say that much of what’s happened is supported by the strength of the economy.
INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?
BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.
He also defended unregulated derivatives while chair of the CEA. This is testimony to former Senator Paul Sarbanes, from November 2005:
SARBANES: Warren Buffett has warned us that derivatives are time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. The Financial Times has said so far, there has been no explosion, but the risks of this fast growing market remain real. How do you respond to these concerns?
BERNANKE: I am more sanguine about derivatives than the position you have just suggested. I think, generally speaking, they are very valuable. They provide methods by which risks can be shared, sliced, and diced, and given to those most willing to bear them. They add, I believe, to the flexibility of the financial system in many different ways. With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly. The Federal Reserve’s responsibility is to make sure that the institutions it regulates have good systems and good procedures for ensuring that their derivatives portfolios are well managed and do not create excessive risk in their institutions.
Very sophisticated individuals!
It’s important to remember this cavalcade of missteps, because they reflect a conservative, laissez-faire, free-market evangelical bent to Bernanke’s thinking. It’s no accident that he called for cuts to Social Security instead of investing in job creation at yesterday’s hearing; that’s his economic orientation. It’s why the former domestic policy advisor to Dick Cheney discussed him in telling ways today:
Sure, Bernanke has made plenty of mistakes, most glaringly has been his penchant for putting the pedal to metal on the money supply, which created the housing bubble in the mid-2000s, and now threatens to spark inflation, as David Burton and I wrote in this op-ed. But Bernanke has been an important voice of caution on budget deficits and entitlement spending, and philosophically he tends to come down on the free market side of issues. I had left the Bush White House by the time Bernanke had arrived as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, but according to one of my former Cheney staff colleagues: “(Bernanke) was a very good and effective conscience for the West Wing,”
The conscience of George Bush’s West Wing. That’s who’s running monetary policy in the United States right now.



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He has got to go. Obama must be made to see this.
If for nothing else, he needs to be pink slipped for incompetence. The only people I know of who are as consistently wrong as this guy are Dick Cheney and John McCain, and both of them were asked to find other employment. Why not Bernanke was well?
Hold your breath. /s
this is clearly a depression, I guess it’s counter productive saying so in tne media, it might create a panic
don’t forget, the “great” depression was the big one, there are clearly levels below that one
reagan created a depression himself though not as severe as the bush depression, bush 1 didn’t help the reagan depression, clinton gave us a respite
but there is no question about it, this economy has contracted, assets have shrunk, wages have reduced and jobs have been lost
I don’t think there’s a single perameter for “depression” this economy does not have represented
you don’t care for teddy too much cuz he cannot survive that instruction shame on you![/s}
Bernanke became FRB Chair after I had stopped being a professional economist & was deeply involved in trying to learn about terrorism, foreign policy, etc., so I never paid much attention until his confirmation testimony. Here’s the email I sent to a friend:
Hey, I included the snark tag, just to make sure no one would take umbrage.
We are truly on the highway to hell. We retain the most incompetent, promote the least qualified, and reward the greatest criminals in America today. Weather forecasters are more accurate than these financial “experts” that control our economy. Dump Bernanke and let’s audit the fed!
Of course, with Bernanke so stunningly stupid about financial bubbles, that must reflect very badly on Krugman, who defended him against sustained attacks from me, selise & Hugh at the book salon a year ago.
he wouldn’t even address my question, “how is this not a depression?”, refused to agree or disabuse me from the claim
I think we need our own nobel price for economics!
how to get?
The Nobel prizes in economics & peace are a joke. Don’t know about the science ones. Every once in awhile you read an article about the politics in it but I don’t know the science well enough to have an opinion.
Bernanke is the joke, n’est pas?
Good Friday Evening, All.
emptywheel’s post on Prince is front-paged.
Well, the peace prize isn’t always a joke. For example when Menachem Begin won it it was well deserved. I mean, that guy is Mr. Peace. If you look up “peace” in the dictionary you’ll see his picture.
He doesn’t go unless a whole bunch of people get on the phone to their Senators (and even Republicans can play this time since it slaps down an Obama appointment) and ask them to vote No (maybe Hell No) on Bernanke’s reconfirmation.
And politely suggest his replacement might be more useful if they came from a Fed branch instead of academia and from outside of New York, somewhere like Kansas City for example. Another name to offer would be Janet Yellen.
Hey. Bernanke has helped make rich people richer. WTF else do you want?
Keep up on this topic!
Bernanke was Greenspans second, and Greenspan had alot to do with causing the problems. So what do they do put the the problems second in charge of the problem.
Bernanke never should have gotten through His confermation, and we wouldn’t have to be saying He has to go.
He and Obama say He saved us. Well if saving us is sticking a knife in our Nations back, so we cannot fight saving the banks. I have question of that. If taking trillions of our money and giving it to the banks on top of the tarp is saving us and our childrens future, I have questions on that.
We were told saving the banks was needed to keep them lending. Well now their telling us that because the banks aren’t lending they need to do something different.
Could they all think we are assholes, and will believe what ever were told?
Could they believe it doesn’t matter what we do, say, or think because we can’t do anything about it?
Could they believe they can just muddle through because we haven’t done anything to hardly even complain yet, and probably won’t no matter how bad it gets?
My bet is Bernanke keeps His job and the shit continues.
The quotes are nice but all of this is old news for those of us who have been following economic matters. Bernanke backed Greenspan’s easy money easy regulation policies, discounted the housing bubble before it burst, discounted its effects after it burst, thought the market could self-correct for it and that the Fed had only to make some mild adjustments to interest rates and intervene on an ad hoc basis to specific events, even after Bear Stearns went splat, he really didn’t modify course, investigate who had the big exposures, when things got hairy in September 2008, he was all over the board, working with Paulson and Goldman to bailout AIG for Goldman’s benefit, playing games with the Merrill sale to BAC, signing off on sending Lehman to the wall (without even a cursory check on what parties were exposed to Lehman or how bad Lehman’s balance sheet actually was), so it wasn’t so much Lehman’s uncontrolled bankruptcy but the Money Market funds which got burned by the Lehman collapse that froze credit in the shadow banking system and then precipitated a system wide freeze up, it was then and only then that Bernanke took action, and his action was to shovel money and write blank checks to the financial industry with no strings attached, leaving the banksters in charge and without even an iota of reform. Goop that he is he now talks about how he saved the world and how recovery is right around the corner even as the fundamentals continue to go south. Just as he didn’t intervene until it was too late in the housing bubble or the financial meltdown, he is doing it again as the underlying trend to depression solidifies. Put simply this guy should not only not be Fed chairman he should be branded one of the principal terrorists of our times. He has wreaked more ruination on this country than a thousand bin Ladens. This is of course impolitic to say because Bernanke is one of the elite and we are supposed to judge them by what they say about themselves and not what they actually do.
As usual, I agree with Hugh. However, I’d also strongly suggest that those who follow these issues might want to refer to Jim Brunning’s attack on Bernacke. I stand in awe (no kidding)!
I have always seen Brunning as a grotesque caricature, even for a repug. However, despite my many critiques on this blog of the ‘wall street crew’ (which Bernacke must be viewed as a charter member despite his academic background), the Kentucky senator’s blowback is far superior to anything I can add:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/03/senator-to-fed-chair-bern_n_378673.html
Bunning was great. It says so much that it took a Bunning and not the supposedly “principled” Dodd (or other Democrats) to tell the truth about Bernanke.
AFAIK Bernanke has done very well from the Fall of ’08 ’til now. The Fed Audit might show otherwise and I’m willing to wait and see what it turns up. There could well be a mixed report with both plusses and minuses to confuse us all.
I too agree that Bunning was unbelieveable, in part because his willingnes to unload on Bernanke was so unrestrained and unexpected. It took everyone for a loop precisely because truth delivered in that manner is so rare. Of course it was also completely on point. Despite the venom he spewed on him there was no hyperbole, it was very much grounded on fact.
I do see that accurately reflecting the course of actions that led to the financial collapse is crucial, but what perhaps is equally crucial is to expose the magnitude of the financial losses to the public that resulted. It is this staggering amount of public monetary losses that Bernanke apparently feels he is not obliged to reveal.
How is it exactly that revealing how much public money has been given to private firms is a breach of the Fed’s role of managing interest rates through monetary policy, which is what Bernake claims. More likely he is unwilling to reveal the amount or the beneficiaries of this public largesse because the public would be rigthly outraged. Grayson and Paul and those in the House should be commended for their efforts at fully vetting the Fed in this regard.
Also lacking is a fuller explanation as to why the financial sector has been allowed to acquire the dominance it has in the economy. It now represents 40% of corporate earnings with no demonstrable benefit to the economy at large. In large part through engaging in debt backed derivates transactions.
What is the justification for debt to be used as collateral when it is no such thing, and then to be further used in highly leveraged derivatives transactions? This needs explaining, why is it permitted. Where is the even theoretical much less actual proof that derivatives serve to manage systemic risk, as it is claimed?
If this is not shown then debt backed derivatives should be banned and in that way a great deal would be done to reduce the size and earnings of financial firms in one fell swoop. Contrary to what they may tink, financial firms are not free to engage in whatever transactions they may concoct.
I don’t see that the reduction in in the size and earnings of the finanial sector would negatively impact the general economy in any way. The money it now diverts from the productive economy would instead be put to better use.
Obama’s biggest mistake is following exactly the financial path Bush followed (with some small exceptions) and appointing Bernanke to reassure the markets he would follow the same policies. Finance should have come as the first priority and it should have been led by someone like Spitzer. Replacing Bernanke is not enough. We need a change in direction and Obama’s personal attention. Obama is almost infinitely better than Bush, but he needs to get in there and fight!