Despite expected losses in 2010, Democrats have pickup opportunities in several Senate races, particularly if the economy recovers. One of those races is Richard Burr’s seat in North Carolina. Burr is a conservative back-bencher in a state that went for Barack Obama and kicked out conservative back-bencher Elizabeth Dole in 2008. While Burr leads in early polls, his re-elect numbers are fairly low, in the same range as Dole’s were at this stage of the campaign.

But a growing dispute between primary candidates, North Carolina locals and the DC-based Democratic campaign arm in the Senate could threaten the possibility for victory.

For months, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who has won statewide three times, was the major candidate in the race. But the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) was openly casting about for an alternative, first Rep. Bob Etheridge, and then an obscure former state Senator and Iraq war vet named Cal Cunningham. Cunningham entered the race this week, and the establishment in the Party, while not formally endorsing him, seems to be leaning in that direction.

Cunningham’s announcement leaked on the day of Elaine Marshall’s husband’s funeral, which Marshall supporters claim was a deliberate leak from the DSCC. I have been able to confirm from Swing State Project, one of the original publishers of the leak, that the DSCC had no involvement in that. But they certainly have encouraged him to run.

Marshall’s fundraising (only $164,000 on hand at the end of last quarter) and a third-place finish in a Senate primary in 2002 have been cited by some as possible reasons why she has been downgraded by national Democrats. But with Cunningham new to the race and a May primary only months away, the DSCC would probably have to endorse and invest to get Cunningham through against the more widely-known opponent:

If Democrats want Cunningham to make the race against Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), it might take the kind of primary boost they gave Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) last year.

As with Merkley and Hagan two years ago, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has made its choice known early in a second-tier race, and it’s a relatively unknown state lawmaker with a profile the party believes in. But while Hagan sailed in her primary and went on to defeat Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) in 2008, Cunningham could face a Merkley-esque primary first.

“The DSCC, if it truly believes Cunningham is going to be the strongest candidate, may have to invest in that primary,” said Ferrel Guillory, a professor at the University of North Carolina and longtime political writer in the state. “That comes at the risk of some discontent and fracturing of the Democratic Party.”

The North Carolina Democratic Party traditionally does not endorse candidates, and activists in that state expressed frustration at the DSCC publicly bigfooting into the race. Marshall is clearly capitalizing on the NC/DC divide – check out this clip from a local news station:

MARSHALL: The voters of North Carolina don’t like that somebody is trying to anoint or select their candidate. We are seeing that across the board.

There is a third candidate in the race, attorney Kenneth Lewis, who is widely regarded for his work fighting predatory lending. Here’s what he had to say about the controversy:

I mentioned Cal Cunningham’s entry into the race and that he’s seen by many as the golden boy of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), a move that echoed the machinations of 2008 to push Kay Hagan forward as the candidate to beat (because, of course, openly gay candidate Jim Neal, already declared and in the running, was deemed unelectable by the powers that be). Lewis was rankled and said “the DSCC does not contribute to candidates; it does in a general election work to defeat Republicans to get Dems elected. It won’t run ads to defeat us (meaning he and Marshall).”

While primaries can be healthy and get people talking about a race, this could end up being an example of an unhealthy one. Hopefully the DSCC hasn’t totally strained their relationship with activists in North Carolina to threaten a potential pickup, but it’s months until the primary and there’s time to turn that around.