I barely even know what Paul Krugman is arguing here. In both of his posts attacking anyone calling into question the lack of disclosure on the part of Jonathan Gruber, he acknowledges that Gruber should have disclosed his relationship. That’s really the end of the game here. Nobody is really saying that Gruber didn’t come to his conclusions honestly (though I’ll return to this in a moment) or isn’t saying now what he wouldn’t have said if he was not under contract. The problem is that the White House repeatedly used Gruber as an “objective source” while he was under contract, and neither the White House nor Gruber bothered to disclose that fact for months. That’s all too common in our political culture, and a legitimate problem.
Glenn Greenwald has an appropriate response. For instance, Glenn notes that Gruber’s explanation to Krugman, which offers new information, makes this even more troubling:
I was contracted with HHS for technical modeling assistance. When designing a policy like this, policy makers want to consider a million different permutations: different AVs, tax credit amounts, employer assessments, etc. Basically, in a perfect world, we would all just rely on CBO for all these permutations. But CBO has limited resources and can’t work directly with the administration. So I provided the administration & congress (mostly senate finance) with the kind of modeling that CBO does to help them narrow options to a more manageable list that they could send to CBO.
It makes sense to use modeling to get a preview of CBO analysis, and Gruber’s models are recognized as among the best. But like the White House, members of the Senate Finance Committee like John Kerry, who put together the structure of the excise tax, were publicly saying things like “this bill will raise wages, don’t trust me, trust independent expert Jonathan Gruber,” when at the time Gruber was working with the Committee on their modeling. Greenwald:
Anyone listening to this would have had no idea that Gruber wasn’t just some independent authority, but was actively working with both the administration and Kerry’s Committee in exchange for large payments. Not disclosing that — and instead affirmatively selling Gruber as some kind of detached, objective expert (“hey, don’t listen to me; listen to that independent expert over there”) — is just wrong. As Sunstein himself argued, people who are truly “independent” have more credibility in the eyes of many than those who are on the government payroll. For that reason, to depict someone who is actually in the latter category as being in the former is simply deceitful. How could anyone possibly defend that?
Perhaps this blind spot on the part of Krugman could just be academic courtesy to a colleague who is working on a proposal he favors. But I want to add something to this about the nature of Gruber’s views. Merrill Goozner notes in the comments of Krugman’s piece that Gruber, in fact, has changed those views, or at least allowed for more ambiguity in them, prior to this year.
Two years ago, in a paper published on the NBER website, he showed that raising co-pays and deductibles harms patients, especially those with chronic diseases. He has both admitted that the misnamed Cadillac tax will raise co-pays and said in published comments that “there is no evidence” that it will cause harm. This is diametrically opposed to what his research showed before working for the Obama administration.
Similarly, Larry Mishel, the EPI economist who has lots of experience on wage issues, confirmed in an FDL blog comment that Gruber admitted to him he “exaggerated” the case for wage growth when health costs decrease:
I think his error in the case I’m criticizing is that he’s a health care economist and doesn’t know the details about wage trends. I, on the other hand, have been studying wages for thirty years or more. Gruber clearly over-reached with the argument about health care driving wage trends and has acknowledged that to me privately (yesterday).
Mishel says this while defending Gruber over his contract with HHS. But it’s a huge point. I have no problem with Gruber being a technical modeler for the government. I have a somehwat bigger problem with his talking about the health care bill upon which he has been contracted without disclosure. I have a bigger problem with other politicians citing him as an “objective source” when he’s working for the government. But I have the biggest problem with Gruber selectively articulating his confidence with this or that element of the bill unless called on it. He has neglected the work of his own research into the effects of higher co-pays and deductibles. He has admitted to exaggerating when talking about health care and wage trends. But he wouldn’t have acknowledged any of this in a one-way conversation when he wrote an op-ed, or in a conversation with a journalist either unaware of countervailing data or inclined to believe his pronouncements. Only when an economist like Larry Mishel or a labor writer like Steven Greenhouse calls him on his statements does he walk them back.
That’s something of a second-order issue with Gruber, but it doesn’t speak well of him. And it goes to the heart of the non-disclosure; he doesn’t disclose FACTS in the same way he doesn’t disclose the nature of his financial relationships – or rather, he only does when he has to. The need for disclosure is one thing – but there’s also the need for fact-checking in journalism, to ensure that opinion-makers aren’t given the leeway to maximize their views and minimize any contradictory information.



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Thanks, David, the more scrutiby Gruber is subject to the poorer he looks.
And, in a matter of this importance, nothing is a ‘second-order issue.’
Corruption and purchased opinion, and wrongful use of facts to boot, are simply wrong.
The Grubergate saga continues. Honestly I don’t know why Gruber and his allies don’t just quit while they’re ahead. Say there should have been more disclosure and be done with it. If we get into parsing his memos it will become clear that he was not objective. You could not get that stuff published in any peer-reviewed journal.
Great job deconstructing this guy Gruber. The bottom line is he is discredited and so is the corrupt administration and Kerry et al that hired Gruber. It goes a long way to explain the motiviation of Obama. They wanted a corrupt HCR bill all along that favored the industry at the expense of the middle and lower class. Change we can believe in?
Greenwald has an update today, with news that the NYT public editor has come out slamming several non-disclosure problems at NYT lately, including Gruber. Krugman simply has nowhere left to go on this issue.
Only question now is–is the horse too far out of the barn for this to make any difference at this point…
Wonder if Krugman’s being considered for a govt position.
One thing that is clear…Marcy hit on a very sore spot regarding the way the press and op ed pages work in this country. The attacks, while invalid and painful, are behavioral confirmation of the truth they would prefer to keep hidden.
Go Marcy. (and Bmaz) your fans come here because they already “know” that you are seeking validity and truth to the best of your ability. In that, you may not always do it perfectly, but when you put the value of validity above the value of being right or making money for someone else…it shows.
I am very disappointed to find that Krugman is a “shill”. I am very grateful to Marcy for helping us see it.
May I gently suggest that, on most issues, Krugman is our friend.
He was a lonely voice in the wilderness back in the bad old days.
We should be able to criticize Krugman’s stand on Gruber without throwing him out with the bathwater.
I think it is obvious what has happened here. In spite of everything Krugman is actually a fairly humble man. As such he (I do the same thing) can get very stubbornly defensive about certain points, and this is one of them.
And what is the point? Academia is well known for its insidious politics, but there is one thing that all parties agree upon. Their lifeblood of funding flows to them mostly from the government at one level or another. It is a given. They could not exist without it. For Krugman and Gruber, the suggestion that money coming from the government had anything to do with their work is about the same as saying my politics are selected for me by the fact I get drinking water from the Sierra Nevada. Well I am surrounded by right wing Republicans drinking the same water, so how could that be the controlling variable?
I predict Krugman will recant eventually.
Govt. purchase of good PR is an old and thoroughly bad practice. What is annoying here is the collateral damage to the reputation of veal pen homeboy Krugman. Credibility is like virginity, once you’ve lost it, you’re fucked.
Perhaps he already has one in the model of what Greenwald was criticizing Sunstein for advocating for (covert government employees designed to give the appearance of being independent in order to deceive the public)
Maybe there will be an opening at Treasury shortly?
David,
Thanks for this post. A bit OT but related…
I just want to share a personal experience that happened to me yesterday. I was talking with a friend who is a teacher. The friend shared about the teacher union’s health insurance company re-enrollment period presentation. The company rep explained that premiums would be going up and explained it in a way to beg a question from the listening audience, “Why?”. Of course someone asked, “Why are they going up?”
The rep explained, in a very rehearsed manner, that claims rose by $800,000 dollars the past year, also in a way to lead the audience to ask, “Why?”
Again, the rep explained in a nice practiced delivery that approximately 80% of the claims were due to three people.
The teachers all looked at one another, they knew who among them had fought critical illnesses the past year. They became resentful of the presentation. It was delivered in such a way as to try and “turn the crowd” on the older and sick peers among them. A manipulation of the masses to perform “death panels” so the insurance companies come away with clean hands and more money. The union voted to find a new health insurance company.
I pointed out, that unfortunately, the teachers were put into a “loose-loose” because now the three peers were “pre-existing conditions” and were probably denied coverage by the new company.
I shared the story at a larger family birthday dinner later the same day. My father then repeated countless similar stories from associations that he sits on the boards for. He said in their cases, the board committed to funding the difference in costs for those fighting health issues and were equally disgusted by the inability for the provider to present from the perspective of equity of care. Often, the board sought new insurance with inclusion of those with preexisting conditions.
My father agreed that insurance companies are death panels but they want to pass the actions onto the policy holders as a way to wipe their hands clean.
The friend who is a teacher stated, “I resent a presentation that attempts to make me think pure evil thoughts about others.”
Seems that some of us are too young to remember the expression “cut off your nose to spite your face.”
You’ve described Gruber’s problems pretty well.
Comparing the post by Mishel to some of the op-ed articles written by Gruber, the biggest difference is not in their conclusions but in their presentation of issues. Mishel presents facts as he understands them and disclaimers where the results are ambiguous. Gruber appears to cherry pick in order to bolster his predetermined expectations. Whether those expectations are purely driven by consultant pay from the Obama administration or from his own firmly held ideology is pretty much irrelevant. The question is whether his conclusions are biased based upon what he wanted his model to prove. On that question the jury is still out because transparency is not the order of the day.
Yet even the issue of whether Gruber is non-biased is not as interesting as the question of which motivations created which outcomes. Was the Obama administration interested in Gruber because of his predetermined positions or was the White House persuaded by Gruber to support concepts like the excise tax in public because of a large payout. Did they pick him with the intent of trying to avoid a trail back to Obama as the actual architects of the legislation or did they hire Gruber because they had no plan of their own. The White House opacity problem seems to be a bit bigger than Gruber and his research methods.
A bigger issue for some critics may be in viewing the dialogs defending Gruber’s approach as a canary in a coal mine. The dwindling chirps of dissent telling us that Team Obama continues to have a covert agenda that they promote via government paid proxies. An agenda we can only discover as we attempt to fathom the proxies they choose to use and their motivations. We have no reason to believe that this problem is an isolated incident.
Perhaps Krugman’s defense of Gruber has more than a little to do with defending the Obama blank slate approach to government and a bit less to do with Gruber’s research.
If there were an opening Summers or even Rubin are more likely choices than Krugman. Krugman never worked for Goldman Sachs nor in the banking industry nor was he an ambivalent regulator. Krugman would be a potential loose cannon.
David, you misrepresented Gruber’s duty to disclose government sources of funding in the NEJM Perspective that he wrote. Are you ready to admit that you exaggerated yet?
I am let his model run all the scenarios not just the ones Congress picks. Drug Prices the same price as Canada and Mexico, National Healthcare on the French or Japanese model.
If you only model what Congress picks as healthcare you only get the answer Congress wants.
Diary Klynn Death Panel Diary! I’m saving this comment in my files.
The perfect world model;
“I was contracted with HHS for technical modeling assistance. When designing a policy like this, policy makers want to consider a million different permutations: different AVs, tax credit amounts, employer assessments, etc. Basically, in a perfect world, we would all just rely on CBO for all these permutations. But CBO has limited resources and can’t work directly with the administration. So I provided the administration & congress (mostly senate finance) with the kind of modeling that CBO does to help them narrow options to a more manageable list that they could send to CBO.”
If anyone in America can read this without losing hope that our government has no intention of serving the people of this country, tell me how. Business as usual is to murder x amount of people for the monetary justification it provides.
We are a country of fools as we allow the psychopath’s to rule. After seeing a shill write the rules, is there any thing else that you can say?
You’re probably right but as a public face they could try appeasing the left with him.
Still defending Gruber’s actions against all comers?
Can you disclose what your connection is to Gruber, since you seem to know what he was thinking?
Wow, since the beginning I felt, ok it was simple, all Gruber did was fail to disclose and he should have (just as Krugman stated). But now, I have to wonder (far beyond what I originally even considered) but not only has it been admitted and determined he’s worked very closely/directly with the policy makers in the Senate, but more importantly, that he’s changed his own opinions on how the “Cadillac tax” will impact people. So, why do the same exact numbers/modeling now cause him to change his views on how it will impact people? Does he give any rationale for the change of heart? Has the money (which I thought still might not have impacted his objectivity and work) tainted him? Methinks he doth protest too much (as well as his colleague Mr. Krugman).
Now, after first blush and further investigation, I’m beginning to imagine the unimaginable here and go far far beyond what I’d originally thought was just a simple issue of non disclosure. Perhaps his previous stellar modeling credentials may now also be suspect? Let’s hope there was no cherry picking of modeling and number crunching going on here. Let’s hope there wasn’t any say, having a preconceived policy outcome you want and making the facts fit the policy outcome. I am highly suspect in light of what Gruber has previously stated and now admitted. Wow.
Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to not disclose. What a shame. Damn, damn, damn.
“Nobody is really saying that Gruber didn’t come to his conclusions honestly”
Umm…some questions
What Assumptions are in the model?
What are the model’s sensitivity to variables and their changes?
Are there Feedback loops?
Are the feedback loops first, second ot higher order differential?
Are the feedback loops linear or non-linear?
Is the model both Open Source and peer reviewed?
How was the model tested (it is programming)?
How was the model calibrated?
All I’ve seen in Grubers papers is assertions presented as conclusions. Noting in detail on method, just some vague references to “synthetic companies”.
I think of Krugman as a scholar and a bit of a public intellectual. It would never occur to me to think of him as a friend. And like ever public figure, every time he talks or writes, i assess what he does in light of what I know and what is going on. He has been so strident on this disclosure issue that it makes me wonder why.
Gotta pay $800,000 to get your Qs answered. Or maybe a lot more. Sounds like what Obama got was the model results, not the model itself.
Krugman knows well just how badly the US needs a public alternative to private health insurance corporations, and an end to the patent monopolies and no-compete policies given to the pharmaceutical industry. Yet, he sides with an utterly atrocious bill that prioritizes just these two elements and nothing else.
I wonder if he is through some arrangement taking money from either or both of these industries?
It is disheartening to hear such stories, klynn.
It is true that a small percentage of patients accounts for a large chunk of health care expenditures, and for reasons that are unsurprising:
• Five percent of the population accounts for almost half (49 percent) of total health care expenses.
• The 15 most expensive health conditions account for 44 percent of total health care expenses.
• Patients with multiple chronic conditions cost up to seven times as much as patients with only one chronic condition
Link.
I trust the teachers grilled the presenter in terms of average costs of various plans and comparisons of benefits, copays and all the other variables that allow for better decision-making. It sounds, though, as if they got side-tracked.
From the longer view, of course, there needs to be vigorous efforts to keep facts such as these before the US public:
Per capitl health expenditures by country, 2007 (in US dollars)
US = $6,096
Luxembourg = $5,178
Norway = $4,080
Switzerland = $4,011
Austria = $3,418
And so on.
Link.
That is utterly disgusting.
Oy, banksters are on cspan. Watched it once, which was one too many.
http://letters.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2010/01/16/krugman/permalink/b714eeacf657b05208bbd77a1662e8e5.html
It is a proprietary model, therefore not subject to peer review (no testing, replication, examination, etc. by other experts). Isn’t that handy? Just read the third paragraph in this document.
Pls see the link in 31 above.
So you’re no doubt aware that this refers to the HHS Office of Health Reform, not the White House Office of Health Reform? I realize that one is supposed to coordinate with the other, but there’s an extra layer to get to ASPE, as there should be.
Here you go, fatster. The HHS/OHR is headed by Jeanne Lambrew, Ph.D., the White House OHR is headed by Nancy-Ann DeParle.
http://www.healthindustrywashingtonwatch.com/2009/05/articles/obama-transition-news/hhs-office-of-health-reform-established/
The report generated by the models, together with its inputs and assumptions, are accessible to peer-review. Evaluations prepared for the government (and many other organizations) frequently use software or packages which are not open source, in fact most do. The report contains all the numbers necessary to check the results and assumptions. It doesn’t contain the capability to re-run the simulation is all.
How many people here do any kind of numbers or peer-review stuff? It’s just unbelievable some of the things people dream up.
There is another reason why hiring an expert modeler is important, but I haven’t seen commented on.
One of the key issues that any proposal must face is the CBO estimate. Like any other estimate, the accuracy of these values depends (to a large extent) on what predictor variables are or are not included. If you knew what the predictors (and their weights) were, you could tailor your proposal to include elements that will help (get a good CBO estimate) while avoiding elements that would hurt. You could also sneak in things that SHOULD be held against the proposal, but express them in a way that CBO either doesn’t include or weights very low.
In short: if you knew the CBO’s model, you could play around until your own proposal got a good score even if your proposal – under a more sophisticated model – would not and should not get a good score.
Even shorter: if you knew the CBO’s model and were good at modeling, yourself, you could game the system.
Furthermore, if you had the best modeler on your side, you could prevent the “other side” from doing what I’m talking about.
In other words: I, for one, am not so sanguine about the fact that the Admin went out and hired the best modeler available. This can be read in two very different ways: that they wanted the best possible proposal or that they wanted to make sure that their proposal got a good CBO score regardless of whether it deserved such.
You are highly misinformed.
Gruber’s model is proprietary. It is not published. It is a secret.
So why not approach this issue by apologizing for the non disclosure piece and the potential conflict of interest issue. Apologize for the “fake scandal” comment and then move on to how many other “experts” agree or disagree with Gruber’s conclusions?
That is tough to imagine
Gruber, like Krugman, is part of a small circle of ueber-elite academics, with national or international reputations and teaching at Ivy League schools or their rivals.
Gruber’s specialty is health economics. That he would have been inclined to agree with the Obama administration’s proposed policies was obvious. Indeed, it would have been an essential part of the White House’s vetting process. Its game is politics – Dawn Johnsen’s name is a tool, not an appointment, for example. It is not in the business of picking the best person for the job or the best policy we can afford. The White House would have no more hired a truly independent voice to defend its health insurance choices than Bush would have hired Noam Chomsky to advise him on Haitian policy.
What the White House bought from Gruber was his agreement and his apparent independence. The substantive work it could have put together itself or from a variety of other sources or claimed it didn’t need. That Gruber’s “independence” would last only for as long as word about his contracts was not widespread was an acceptable risk. In the end, it lasted for months and got Obama almost a bill.
This furor isn’t likely to have much impact on the House-Senate negotiations or the final vote. It will be one more straw on the anti-Obama democrats’ back.
As a lawyer, it disturbs me to see what I see as the difference between analysis and advocacy. It’s much like the difference between what a Justice Dept lawyer should be writing and Yoo memos. In law, it is obvious that there is a role for advocacy, so the fact that there were advocate memos isn’t the problem. It’s that that style of memo was written by someone who was supposed to be in an analyis role. I don’t know how much advocacy there is in economics, but I can accept that you should be able to hire yourself a cheerleader economist who will tell you how to sell what you want through its good points and even write up stuff about it. But you have to be clear that he is in that role because it is not the same as the analysis you expect from an independent academic. The whole system is for presenting both sides, strengths and weaknesses in research, as can be seen by Gruber’s prior work. To them switch to taking out the weaknesses and overstating the strengths to advocate without a clearly disclosed change of hats is really dangerous. Maybe nobody will get tortured, but when it comes right down to it, people with chronic conditions who can’t afford those copays and deductibles could die over this. And even when it isn’t life and death, ethics and transparency matter.
He has an evaluation contract to satisfy. He has to send reports to ASPE. They have standards, and want to know what the assumptions are, what the numbers were it was fed, why, and what the outcome was, and what it means. He doesn’t have to turn over the code to reproduce them, or explain how it works. He does have to explain his results and assumptions.
No, I assure you, I am not misinformed.
Why? All of your apologies go in one direction. There were serious innuendos of misconduct and corruption here and at Glenn Greenwald’s. Will there be the appropriate apologies for those, too?
In fact, David Dayen’s piece here is more than an innuendo. He’s asserting mistatements of fact in the analysis. He’s basing it on the use of the word “exaggerate” among the economists (none of whom have alleged such mistatements or willfully wrong analysis). I refer you to this piece written by bystander at Glenn’s, and to my reply:
http://letters.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2010/01/16/krugman/permalink/b9a927e7d7596a941e3bbe269bf38e92.html
http://letters.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2010/01/16/krugman/permalink/2ac023ba1d9117fca34715773df05539.html
I have zero interest in arguing with you (because I’ve read your recent posts). Suffice it to say that his model – as in: the parameters and weights – are *not* published. He only publishes the predictions from the model. Babble all you wish in an attempt to walk back what you said. I’m through.
So, apparently (see 42), you might contact ASPE and ask if they will share with you what they know about the model, the data fed into it, how they were crunched (oh, and be sure and ask about weights applied to the variables), and the results. Since taxpayers’ dollars are involved in this, you would be doing a service to all of us who are curious about how our money gets spent.
Ooops. Didn’t see this comment you made prior to mine @ 45. Apologies, as I do not intend to be an irritant to you in any way.
Refer you to John Cole (h/t DCLaw1 at Glenn’s).
http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=32684
He’s strident in defense of his “friends.” Summers, Bernanke and now Gruber have all come under (deserved) public criticism, and Krugman publicly defended them.
Also, he may not be someone you want to invite over for board games and cocktails, but Krugman is a liberal ally. I wouldn’t be so Manichean about those with whom you disagree. It’ll get lonely fast. (And I don’t mean to pick on you specifically. It seems to be the trend around here, and I’m with you guys on the need to defeat this bill).
There are 2 main left positions on the current HCR (1) the bill is bad but it’s the best we can do right now and is a good starting point for further reform, and (2) the bill is worse than the status quo and needs to be defeated. Those who fall into category (1) aren’t our enemy. They may be wrong (and it appears we’ll find out since some kind of bill will pass). But turning away anyone who disagrees with you on this one issue is, well, short-sighted and self-destructive.
Thanks for the insult. What I was referring to was his reports that he must turn in to the government in satisfaction of his contract with ASPE. I’m not walking back anything. People here are sure this is a slamdunk case of corruption although everybody is careful not to use that word. It isn’t. Mr. Dayen doesn’t have the facts to show that Jonathan Gruber twisted a single result, but he certainly is making the accusation.
The HHS contract in no way requires that Gruber hand over his parameters and weights, only that he apply his proprietary model.
It’s very similar to when you buy the right to run Windows on your PC. You bought the function, not the way it works. Tax dollars are used for exactly this all the time. Buying the use of Gruber’s model is no different.
(This is soooo off the point. That we – as in: the taxpayers – bought the use of Gruber’s model is no big deal. The only reason that I’m discussing this at all is I’m correcting the suggestion that anyone can check Gruber’s results by plugging in the same numbers. No-one other than Gruber can do this. How the model works has never been subjected to peer review since it’s never been disclosed. Only the output from the model is available. Now, I suppose you could try to reverse engineer the model by getting Gruber to publish a huge number of input/output patterns, but he’s too smart for that, so don’t hold your breath.)
Edit: I wrote this before Fatster posted again … sorry to be prickly
“The report contains all the numbers necessary to check the results and assumptions.”
That, to be blunt, was BS and was what made be say that you are highly misinformed. To check the results you would need the weights and no report includes them.
(Now I really am done with you. I’ve watched you post things that are demonstrably wrong and then walk them back before. It’s a waste of time arguing with you because you do not exhibit the typically mammalian ability to alter behavior based on previous experience.)
Vote for Brown and kill the bill.
It is the only way.
Thanks again for the insult.
i’ve agreed before this that i am one of the people who made accusations. i said gruber was an idiot and that one of his studies was bogus. i’ve also stated why i think that.
if i’m wrong, i would very much like to be corrected. furthermore, i will certainly apologize if you can make a good case that i was probably (probably, not even certainly) wrong.
but if i’m not wrong would it be possible to stop accusing me of not apologizing as though i’ve done something i shouldn’t have?
Where were these innuendos? Gruber failed to disclose his relationship to the government. In fact, he deliberately chose not to disclose that relationship to the popular press, but disclosed it to the NEJM, which is a professional publication that he had to have a good relationship with. That’s not an innuendo, that’s a statement. It’s been made repeatedly. The implication that Gruber might have been influenced by his contract with the government is a natural one. It’s the reason that conflict of interest laws exist in government.
Don’t try to turn this around as some sort of sliming of Gruber. It isn’t. He failed to tell people he was trying to influence where his bread and butter was coming from, which was from the very people he was praising.
I lived with government COI rules for most of my career. I know how they work and why they are there. Gruber must have understood them when he starting working for the government. He violated their spirit when he failed to disclose his relationship with the government while advocating for its policies. Whether that was through deliberate deceit or a sense of his own omniscience is immaterial.
Spot on comment. I agree.
Gruber chose to interpret the 95-96-97 shift to HMO health – and the cost increase reduction that caused, as the reason wages were going up (4% to 6% unemployment had no effect I guess – supply and demand are important only when you want them to be).
He interprets a study – the Rand study ending in 82 of a small group – 2000 families – 6000 persons – over a short period – 3 or 5 years – which showed that a small deductible was useful to control costs and did not affect health care outcomes – as saying the more out of pocket the lower health costs will be. Way too simple and wrong headed for a smart MIT fellow to say (I say that with a heavy heart being MIT’65).
It was bias – bought anf paid for,
It was through the direct intervention of Larry Summers that Gruber held a position in the Clinton White House in 1997-1998-according to Gruber’s own acknowledgment in a foreword to one of Gruber’s books he penned.
Summers and Gruber both have alma mater connections to MIT and Harvard.In fact, Gruber was one of Summers’ students.
Summers was also in the Clinton administration as Treasury Secretary.Summers is presently an economic advisor to the current President Obama.
I thought it worth posting about vitae for the sake of the record.
Bmaz has specifically focused on the “fake scandals” comment by Krugman.
I am storing your comment in my tiny little memory banks. Interesting.
model available for peer review – no
assumptions available for review except in the most general terms – no
You need to get your facts straight.
Making obviously important parameters de minimis reflects bias
Ignoring the limitations of data being used to create assumptions (such as 2000 family over 3 to 5 year Rand study that said a small deductible was useful and did not harm health outcomes) that “prove” administration/corporate ins co desired design reflects bias.
Misusing the 95-96-97 changeover to HMOs that held down health costs increases, saying they caused wage increases, is really bad logic that had to be purchased as Gruber is too smart to be that foolish.
Now we know that the bias was paid for.
that makes sense. Why would folks have a “sense of” “omniscience” in this political environment?
Even the peasants are questioning
According to a graph Rayne posted last Sunday in a thread for the Seminal entitled “Follow the Money” ,Gruber received three $$$ million in grants from 2000-2009.
Which ,imho, would indicate that he should have been familiar with the disclosure requirement.
Now, the description afforded the no bid contact for this proprietary model of Gruber’s states it has been used for other reform-and that it is an extension of ongoing work .
Anybody know what other reform this model has/is being used for?
Was there full disclosure on all the other contracts bewteen 2000-2009?
Just asking, for the sake of the record .
Here is an article from Politico that gives some additional info along these lines,including a brief reference to Ms. Lambrew :
Health Care Zeke: The other Emanuel – Carrie Budoff Brown …Feb 26, 2009 … Ezekiel Emanuel, Rahm’s big brother, is emerging as a key player in Obama’s … He sat on the Clinton administration’s health care task force. …. think health care is even a limited right — it doesn’t work that way. …
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/19368.html – Cached – Similar
You are aware that right after Gruber signed his $95K contract that the very same day the WH booked Gruber to come visit? Gruber then immediately the very next day met with Orzag for almost two hours and after that Orzag and others in the WH started touting Gruber up as an independent confirmation.
Having been a Financial Analyst, I’ve had to turn over everything to other departments within the organization that I was in as well as turn over everything to outside agencies. Being opaque is how you lose your funding.
Gruber also works for the supposedly independent CBO, so yeah, bribing CBO personnel is a good way to get a good score, but also a good way to destroy our government.
Ondelette,
I may or may not agree with your position,but may I say I respect the considerable courage of your convictions?
Beautifully said, Earl of H. And can I just say it? I love Marcy! Krugman, not so much, at least on this matter.
Assuming your experience with government-funded research is much more recent, I’d like to ask a question. There was a requirement that the following statement was to accompany all publications resulting from NIH-funded research:
“This publication was made possible by Grant Number ________ from _________” or “The project described was supported by Grant Number ________ from ________” and “Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the [name of awarding office or NIH].”
It is shown in this document; just scroll down to the heading “Rights in Data (Publication and Copyrighting)” which is a little over half-way through the document.
My question to you, if you’d be so kind: Do you know if this requirement has been rescinded? I’ve searched for the answer and haven’t been able to find it. I’m being nit-picky, perhaps, but I would like to know.
Thanks.
Go to grants.gov. Read through the details about applications for grants and about executing them. You will find that they make provisions for keeping some things proprietary, and other provisions for things not to be. While you’re there, do an advanced search on PA-07-070. It’s the NIH grant that makes up $284,613 of the $780,000+ that everybody is bellyaching about. It isn’t a contract, it isn’t single source, and it was first offered in 2006, and Gruber is P.I. of one award of it at National Bureau of Economic Research.
That inaccuracy in the reporting, and that alone, already means that the assessment of the money he got from the government, and where it came from, and what it was for, is in error here at FDL. So maybe before we start asking if Gruber bent the numbers, we should ask if FDL did. Sorry to put it that way, but that’s how the outside world is going to see it if they start to do the digging.
my bold:
maybe i’m misunderstanding, but i’m pretty sure “everybody” is an exaggeration. would you please be specific as to the people and instances you are referring to? iirc, the number was something like $400,000 and referred to a contract (but i could be misremembering).
p.s. any chance of a response to my comment @ 54?
This explanation also implies Gruber was seeking to “preview” what he CBO would come up with, if it were to analyze a given option. You can’t pass that off as yet another view, in addition to CBO.
That also presumes that the real world operates within the CBO frame: the 10 year budget window.
Ondelette thank you for bringing that up! When Gruber was on Bush’s payroll he sided with the Bush admin.
http://projectreporter.nih.gov/project_info_description.cfm?aid=7586202
I can be more specific: Rayne originally called it a contract in the spreadsheet, it got picked up from there by Jane Hamsher, and then from that it’s been pasted in as the number on the petition, and cited by Glenn Greenwald. It has from there been rehashed by mulitple commenters: $780,000+ in money funneled to Gruber to promote the administration’s health plan. Only the amount I mentioned wasn’t a contract, wasn’t related to doing the numbers for the administration, and was a grant to study the effects of Medicare D from the National Institute on Aging.
As for what you say, I’m not talking about whether or not you agree with Gruber on his conclusions, or think his conclusions are wrong, as do some others, e.g. Larry Mishel. That is not why anyone makes the statements that Dr. Krugman.
I’m talking about accusing him of actual wrongdoing, of altering outcomes for money, of the administration paying him to come to some result. There has been a lot of insinuation, and some outright statement of that. Personally, I don’t think there is a case for it, many others don’t who know far more about what he does than I, and it in no way has been conclusively shown. As such, it’s very much premature for such accusations, if they ever will have any basis. Nobody is going to apologize to people at FDL, people believe that those who do such insinuation and use such numbers are willfully misstating the case.
i’m not trying to be a jerk, but could you possibly give links so i know exactly what posts you are referring to?
i haven’t made my “idiot” or “bogus” comments regarding the excise tax issue. rather it was regarding two nov reports on costs. i think gruber used bogus inputs to his model (cbo data that they said couldn’t be used the way he used it) for his nov 2 and nov 27 reports and have asked for independent verification or correction. if you also want to take a look the relevant links are here:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2010/01/13/gruber/#comment-81132
ondelette, if you’re still here, may I ask you about this question of yours, which I’ve seen you ask over at EW’s place as well. I’m not sure how to interpret it.
While I very much respect expert opinion, to me, experts who are going to step into the broader public forum have a responsibility to be able to explain and justify everything they say in lay terms. Many can’t do that, and there’s a dividing line between one kind of genius and another, but I digress.
A corollary: There are no stupid questions in the agora — iow, experts who’ve stepped into the agora must be able to respond to questions about their work or challenges to it in lay terms, without defensiveness. It is never good enough to wave at knowledge too specialized for the plebs to grasp and then expect the plebs to shut up.
I’m asking as someone who’s been editing scholars for forty years, btw. So many of them have seemed shocked when it hit them that I also expected them to be writers if they were going to, y’know, publish a book.
i bet you’d be surprised.
Whatever the exact amounts involved, here are some relevant facts:
The NIH GRANT was awarded to NBER with Gruber as Principal Investigator. That $285,000 pays for direct costs (computer time, stipends, equipment, some salary support for Gruber) and indirect costs (overhead) to NBER and maybe some to MIT. The work done with this grant is legitimate academic research on Medicare Part D. It has nothing to do with the current issue.
If the total we are talking about is the remaining $500,000 in consulting fees, this money was not for academic research. Gruber was paid directly as a consultant to use his “proprietary statistically sophisticated flexible” model. The words in quotation marks from the contract are weasel words, period. That Gruber did not assiduously disclose that he was getting paid to consult with the Administration on HCR, not to do research, is the issue. Not whether he is honest or truthful or reliable. He is all of those things, I am sure. Which is strange. Why would be allow this particular work to be presented as the product of “research” when he knew it was not? His reputation is essential. All he had to do was be totally up front at all times (it is not up to us to check on his sources of funding and potential conflicts of interest).
Sorry to get back to this so late. My experience is with DoD and with research and development, not pure scientific research. The DoD always has a requirement for labeling publications produced for it. What those are depend on the classification of the document, and the particular agency or agencies involved.
Thank you … it is time for people to question the belief by many in the liberal blogosphere in the innate goodness of mr. gruber … the assumption that the views that he spouts forth in support of the cadillac tax are sincere and honest. Especially considering the fact that he was hardly forthcoming about the big money that he was being paid by the obama administration.
I also think that it is way past time for folks in the liberal blogosphere to question their assumptions on mr. krugman as well.
Z
Thanks ever so much for your kind response. Glad to know that requirement, which is part and parcel of federal conracts, continues. As such, I would think it would apply to Gruber’s contract, too. Oh, well, one more mystery.
I have.
Bob in AZ
You betcha.