Decided to do something a little different. I’m using CoverItLive liveblogging software to cover the State of the Union address. It will automatically update, so no need to refresh. You can register your thoughts in the comments. You have to click on either one of these links and they will appear in a popup window.

FDL News State of the Union

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…OK, so management is happier with me doing this direct to the site, so here goes. I don’t think this will be too happy a speech no matter what platform I use.

Anyways…

Everything we’re hearing is that this will be a “centrist” speech. And given the policies we’ve heard, that’s no surprise. The call to repeal DADT must be the bone to the base.

…OK, the President has entered the building. I have the text of the speech and am looking over it now as he spends several minutes with the handshakes, et al.

…He’s going to lead with the jobs bill and offer a real defense of the stimulus. Again, he’s in a box because it’s so hard to prove a negative.

…Obama on health care will say: “Do not walk away from reform.”

…Setting the scene with the long struggle of America, how we’ve had to persevere and fight. “These were the times that tested the courage of our convictions, and the strength of our union.” Actually coming back to some of the themes of the 2004 DNC keynote.

…”The worst of the storm has passed, but the devastation remains.” This is an “I feel your pain” moment. And it’s something Congress does need to hear.

…This is starting with a very solemn tone. Talking about the letters written by children with stories of economic devastation. “Change has not come fast enough…”

…This is the Obama of the campaign, the post-partisan Obama, the “overcome the numbing weight of our politics” guy.

…I actually don’t mind this, the “story of America” stuff, offering a sense of optimism for America. I’m more of a “tell me what you do” guy, but this is necessary stuff to show that the President understands the plight.

…This is actually reminiscent of the Carter “A Crisis of Confidence” speech, especially the line: “it’s time the American people get a government that matches their
decency; that embodies their strength.”

…Now starts into policy with the economy.

… “We all hated the bank bailout. I hated it. You hated it. It was about as popular as a root canal.” Then says he can’t just do what’s popular, but what’s necessary. This started OK, but the defense is a bit off.

…At least he said that the previous Administration started it, and most of the money has been recovered, and that he’s seeking to get the rest of the money with a fee on the biggest banks… Lieberman actually clapped at that one.

…The first solid policy line: “If these firms can afford to hand out big bonuses again, they can afford a modest fee to pay back the taxpayers who rescued them in their time of need.”

…Ooh, he passed 25 different tax cuts! And now is proposing more! Hilariously, the Republicans won’t stand and clap for tax cuts because the evil Obama cut them. Obama refers to it: “I thought I’d get some applause on that one.”

…Now, this is probably a good-playing bit, politically. They cut taxes in a hidden way to “nudge” more spending, so nobody knows about it. So calling it to everyone’s attention isn’t bad. And defending the Recovery Act is necessary for a defense of his policies and of activist government.

…Personal stories of people and businesses improved by the Recovery Act. A lot of these people are in the box with the First Lady tonight.

…Obama calls for a new jobs bill. “Jobs must be our number one focus in 2010.” Hey, at least the spending freeze is down below the jobs bill.

…This part focuses specifically on small businesses, and in particular small business lending. “So tonight, I’m proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat.” Decent policy, smart politics. Politically speaking, this is a pretty slick speech so far without resorting to just kicking the left.

…Boehner’s such a tool.

…Here’s the job creation tax credit, and eliminating capital gains taxes on small business investment, and carry-back tax breaks. Now we’re seeing the centrism at work. Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts.

…Heavy focus on high-speed rail here. That’s pretty fantastic. When did mass transit ever hit a George W. Bush SOTU.

…Cash for caulkers gets a mention here, and the ubiquitous “end the tax breaks for companies who ship jobs overseas.” Haven’t Democrats been running on that for a decade? Why hasn’t that been taken care of yet?

…Urges the Senate to pass the jobs bill “without delay.” Sounds like he’s pushing them to pass the House’s bill, but most of the steps he mentioned are Senate-friendly, not House-friendly.

…Ooh, there’s some red meat. Calls last decade “the lost decade” and characterizes the craptastic agenda of the previous Administration.

…”How long should America put its future on hold?” Basically saying that establishment foot-dragging is allowing America to fall behind. Right, we should be a parliamentary democracy like Germany or a planned economy like China! (I don’t think that was the implication).

…Some rah-rah-ism: “Well I do not accept second-place for the United States of America.”

…His new foundation starts with “serious financial reform.” So far, this is the right pitch.

…Key graf:

The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes.
And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back until we get it right.

Obama hasn’t made many veto threats.

…OK, this energy section isn’t going to feel so great.

… “A new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants in this country” – Republicans love it, but that’s because it signals corporate welfare. Nuclear power plants are EXPENSIVE. Also calls for offshore oil and gas development and clean coal technologies. Ugh. And he calls for passing a comprehensive clean energy bill without mentioning the words “cap and trade.”

…Nice giving of rhetorical space to climate deniers. THis is actually out of the Frank Luntz playbook for passing climate change legislation, believe it or not. Link.

…Setting a goal of doubling exports over the next five years. Need details on that one. But the trade deficit definitely needs to be reversed. “National Export Initiative”?

…Ah, now I see, this is about ramming through corporate-written trade deals. Does make a nod to enforcing trade agreements.

…Basically wants to pass the trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia. COLOMBIA.

…Sorry, I had some clogged Toobz.

…OK, so I missed the education section and the health care section. I don’t know if anyone will be happy with the health care words. He said “don’t walk away from reform” but offered pretty much no road map. I didn’t expect details but I don’t know what that was.

…Now, he’s on to spending, and he’s making a partisan case that the spending problems came from the Bush Administration.

…I hate the relationship between families tightening their belts and government having to do the same. Governments aren’t families.

…”And if I have to enforce this discipline by veto, I will.” That’s the killer point. He’s saying he’ll veto any discretionary spending increase. Pelosi is basically heckling him from behind.

…”We will not continue tax cuts for oil companies, investment fund managers, and those
making over $250,000 a year. We just can’t afford it.”

…This is a really hard section to take. The speech wasn’t bad until this sop to misguided public opinion.

…Obama the deficit hawk: “I will issue an executive order that will allow us to go forward, because I refuse to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans. And when the vote comes tomorrow, the Senate should restore the pay-as-you-go law that was a big reason why we had record surpluses in the 1990s.”

…Such a lame explanation. The freeze won’t take place until next year, when everything will be FINE! Democrats openly laughed at that, and they’re right.

This is the ultimate triangulation. “Some on the left say/some on the right say…”

…Strong line. “if we just make fewer investments in our people, extend tax cuts for wealthier Americans, eliminate more regulations, and maintain the status quo on health
care, our deficits will go away. The problem is, that’s what we did for eight years. That’s what helped lead us into this crisis.”

…This is the Obama the reformer section, with talk of ending lobbyist controls and increasing transparency, what have you.

…Talking about Citizens United decision right in front of the Supreme Court. “I don’t think American elections should be bankrolled by America’s most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities.” Calling for some unidentified bill to correct the decision.

…And now earmark reform, the silliest, most irrelevant Washington gimmick. “Porkbusters!”

…Here comes Obama the conciliator. “We have to reform how we work with one another.” I do appreciate his statement that there are some issues where people just disagree, and that’s OK.

…”But what frustrates the American people is a Washington where every day is
Election Day.” This is getting to the heart of Senate reform. He’s talking about holds, he’s talking about endless filibusters. This is useful.

…”I will not give up on changing the tone of our politics.” The admonition to Democrats is good, but that has to include Obama as well: “To Democrats, I would remind you that we still have the largest majority in decades, and the people expect us to solve some problems, not run for the hills.”

…This is a really good sequence.

And if the Republican leadership is going to insist that sixty votes in the Senate are required to do any business at all in this town, then the responsibility to
govern is now yours as well. Just saying no to everything may be good short-term politics, but it’s not leadership. We were sent here to serve our citizens, not our ambitions.

Calling for monthly meetings with Democratic and Republican leadership, which is a sop, but turning the tables on Republican obstructionism is good.

…An awkward turn to national security. And nothing here is surprising so far, we all love America, etc.

…He also said he’s not interested in re-litigating the past. Pretty minimal focus on the underpants bombing (I would argue about as much as it deserved).

…Pretty unequivocal on the transition point in Afghanistan: “In Afghanistan, we are increasing our troops and training Afghan Security Forces so they can begin to take the lead in July of 2011, and our troops can begin to come home.”

…”We are responsibly leaving Iraq to its people.” I thought that would get more applause. Obama should actually make more of the fact that we are getting out of Iraq by the end of 2011.

…Here’s the “support our veterans” part of the speech. Interestingly, the DADT repeal isn’t here. It’s one line, further on down the line. ONE LINE. They massively oversold that part of the speech, and will absolutely draw a backlash.

…Obama the no-nukes leader: again, this is a very good part of the Obama agenda that should get more attention. He hasn’t wavered from this call for an end to all nuclear weapons on this planet.

…Obama the Axis of Evil reciter: North Korea and Iran facing increasing “isolation” and “growing consequences.”

…Obama the diplomat: lists a bunch of global initiatives. Follows up with the emphasis on Haiti.

…Why did Guinea get dissed?

…Here’s the part with the DADT repeal, connected to a series of actions on protecting minority rights. “This year, I will work with Congress and our military to finally repeal the law that denies gay Americans the right to serve the country they love because of who they are.” He ad-libbed “This is the right thing to do.”

…Immigration got one line in the speech as well. Again, sounds like a bold commitment.

…Back to the “crisis of confidence” part. Talks about Americans losing faith in our biggest institutions. This is a fairly important bit, but I don’t know if the pitch is quite right. I do think you have to attend to the cynicism and disappointment.

…This is very good, but it doesn’t totally match with the lived experience of the Administration. He’s been willing to deal and willing to settle way too much to make this claim.

But remember this – I never suggested that change would be easy, or that I
can do it alone. Democracy in a nation of three hundred million people can be noisy and messy and complicated. And when you try to do big things and make big changes, it stirs passions and controversy. That’s just how it is.

Those of us in public office can respond to this reality by playing it safe and avoid telling hard truths. We can do what’s necessary to keep our poll numbers high, and get through the next election instead of doing what’s best for the next generation.

But I also know this: if people had made that decision fifty years ago or one hundred years ago or two hundred years ago, we wouldn’t be here tonight. The only reason we are is because generations of Americans were unafraid to do what was hard; to do what was needed even when success was uncertain; to do what it took to keep the dream of this nation alive for their children and grandchildren.

…This is actually an adult argument, so I do appreciate it. Nobody’s ever said that Obama can’t give a good speech. Excise the intellectually dishonest budget stuff and this is decent enough.

…That’s it. He needs to pay attention to some of his final words… “I don’t quit.” So don’t.