At first glance, it seems like Harry Reid is catching a huge break:
Sun columnist Jon Ralston is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified as a third party in Nevada and will have a candidate in the Senate race to battle for the seat held by Majority Leader Harry Reid.
The party has filed a Certificate of Existence but needs to get 1 percent of the electorate to vote for its candidate in November to permanently qualify, according to the report.
Ralston reported that Jon Ashjian will be the Tea Party’s U.S. Senate candidate on the November ballot. Ashjian still must declare his candidacy.
Let’s break this down a bit. The Tea Party in Nevada is probably closer to the Ron Paul anti-government, foreign policy isolationist ideal than it is in some other states. Paul did very well in the 2008 Republican primary in Nevada, finishing second behind Mitt Romney (and if there wasn’t a Mormon candidate in Mormon-heavy Nevada, who knows?), and Paul-ites almost captured the Republican Party in 2008 before the GOP establishment stepped in. Heading that GOP establishment was then-state party chair and one of the GOP Senate candidates, Sue Lowden, who is bitterly opposed by the Paul faction in the state.
Lowden may not win; Danny Tarkanian, son of famous former UNLV basketball coach, is also running, and the two are running even. But if Lowden pulls it out, and even if she doesn’t, you could see a significant portion of Nevada Paul-ites switch to the Tea Party candidate just out of spite. That would make this third-party run different than most, capable of pulling 10-15% of the electorate. And I don’t think any of that would come from Reid’s number, which would make him viable to win with 40-45% of the vote.
Reid has $8.7 million in the bank and is out fundraising in California this weekend. So he can blitz the state with advertising from now to the election. Presumably the DSCC will pump a lot of money into that race to try and save the Majority Leader. Until now, it was probably futile. But if the Tea Party candidate can attract a legitimate number of votes, Reid actually has a plausible path to victory.




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Why would it be ‘just for spite’ to refuse to vote for the Chair of a state party that threw out the entire primary caucus results to appoint state delegates to national convention by conference call?
Seems to me voting against Lowden is baseline policing of a representative’s representativeness.
Terrible news. Do we have to keep him if he wins?
What you said. TWICE!
Reid has ALWAYS had a plausible path to victory, tea party or no. The state Republican party is in disarray and has a shortage of good candidates, Democratic party registration is on the rise, and Reid has an endless supply of cash. Yes his approval ratings are crummy, but so are everyone elses.
What’s with the fund raising in California? I think candidates should be able to raise moolah in their own states. And, I think that should apply for propositions too. Look at what happened to Prop 8 funded by Mormons from Utah.
California has enough problems without the wealthy giving their money to Harry. Keep it here and help your own state, sillies.
Argggh. It’s another Monday.
Goes on all the time. Over 20 years ago, when I sat next to NY senator D’Amato on the shuttle from DC to NYC, he told me he was going to CA the following week to do a fundraiser in CA. When I asked why CA, he answered that it was the wine industry connection. I concluded that anyexcuse was good enough.
That was my initial reaction too, but on second thought, since the Flaccidcratic Party is hopelessly lost we should hope Reid wins– his “leadership” will help us pull down the Flaccidcrats quicker.
It still pisses me off. I think one of the reasons that California is so hard to govern is that it is so large and diverse. Maybe we need to break into two states, or maybe we should get rid of state lines altogether.
While I’ll agree that more of the Tea Party vote would come from a Republican side, there will likely be some from Reid’s past voters. Vegas and Reno are getting hammered by the economy, and there’s likely to be some backlash there. Also, there are alot of people (like myself) who have voted Democrat in the past who could be swayed by a libertarian from the Tea Party. Fiscal responsibility from government and revival of civil liberties (you know, freedom) would go a long way with alot of voters.
“Joe Liberman is a good guy. When I asked him for a hundred thousand dollars (for the D Party) he gave it to me. Joe Lieberman votes with us on everything but the war.” – Harry Reid
Yeah, anarchy is definitely a viable alternative– just ask the people of Colorado Springs.
Reid is such a Republican hate object that I’d be rather surprised if rank-and-file teabaggers didn’t coalesce around the Republican candidate in the end. I don’t see this like NY-23, for instance, where the Democrat Owens wasn’t a high-profile candidate, and personally loathed by the GOP.
The Corporations want tax cuts as job stimulus, and by God, Harry Reid is gonna give em what they want. F**k all if tax cuts don’t work to create jobs (they don’t, its been going on for 40 years making a loss of jobs).
Harry Reid is a shitbird.
Oh good, Harry will have to run further to the right now. Just like Blanche Lincoln. Because real Dem votes don’t matter.
Triangle tea…. always bitter.
If anyone is reading this from Nevada, please find another Dem to run against Reid. Please.
Even tea voters can’t reasonably consider “fiscal responsibility” to be anything more than a slogan used by Republics when they are out of power and ignored when they are in power.
I recall how Connecticut Republicans voted en masse for Joe Lieberman, spurning their own candidate.
Dick Armey has his work cut out for him, but with umlimited corporate cash, I have faith that he can get the teabaggers back in line and vote for the Rethug.
Breaking!
CNN just reporting that Senator Evan Bayh will not seek re-election and will retire instead at the end of his term.
I guess he was just keeping it warm for Repug Dan Coats, the previous occupant, return.
Or a Green or Socialist… or simply a friendly clown from one of those casino circus acts.
Seriously?
Cue that wizard of oz song… ding dong the wicked with is (almost) dead!
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen David Dayen and the Firepup freedom Fighters:
Even if One Hung Harry Reid succeeds in savin his sorry political ass Obama better dump the pathetic bastard from Senate leadership…even Durbin would be a significant improvement and Obama wouldn’t be able to hide behind not gettin anything outta the Senate.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, IT’S ALL ABOUT THE WARS STUPID!!
Splitting it might be good. Northern and southern. Or three parts maybe, which would leave the central farming regions separate (they have very different concerns than the wastelanders or the bay area).
Getting rid of state lines is an interesting idea, although it gets problematic. It would leave you with municipal governments, and the federal government (voted in by an even larger and more diverse population). While I’m not in favor of bureaucracy, having states does handle communication and distribution of government responsibilities to the municipalities. I doubt the federal government’s ability to do that without the states.
As for California’s problem, they have two. First, their debt to GDP ratio has gone exponential. It is too expensive to fund the debt for all the services they run. They are in a debt spiral. It’s really bad news. Federal government is going to have to buy off that debt (CA’s economy is five times bigger than Greece in case anyone didn’t notice). The other half of California’s problem is they are half-assing democracy. They have their law that more or less requires all tax increases to be approved by voter referendum. Being half representative democracy, half direct democracy, is not working. They need to pick one. Personally, I think technology has made real democracy viable. People can communicate quickly, debate widely, and vote easily using the internet.
I don’t believe in the Libertarian’s free market, anti-government philosophy, but I do believe in their anti-interventionalist, pro-civil liberties philosophy. I’m not a Libertarian, but I could see where Progressives and Libertarians could find some ideas upon which they could agree. Reid is a steaming pile of incompetence, and I don’t think another Paul-ite would hurt in the Senate. At least, a Libertarian wouldn’t vote to retain Bernanke or vote to give Obama more money for his wars. I realize the Paul-ite candidate doesn’t have much chance of winning, but I see where anarchisttendencies is coming from.
It is all over the airwaves. As an Indiana resident, I say “good riddance.”
Indiana Senator Evan Bayh to Announce His Retirement
Just one local (Indiana) source.
My tag comes from how I describe my political philosophy. I describe it as libertarian with anarchist tendencies. I am a big believer in freedom (the real kind, not the neocon war machine kind). When I am confronted with a law I don’t believe is just, I am likely to ignore it and protest it. Hence, the anarchist tendencies.
I think you caught the gist of why the Tea Party comes so heavily from disillusioned Republicans. Republicans have used the slogan of fiscal responsibility, and then promptly ignored it. And it’s been obvious. So they’re losing voters to that. Someone who actually stuck to that agenda after they got into office would be a big deal. At the very least, it would be good to at least cut the ties with the Republican oligarchy.
David Dayen has a fresh cross-post with important news included: Evan Bayh To Retire
It is hard to take someone seriously when they use the completely discredited “Isolationist” falsehood. How many times and in how much detail does that have to be dealt with before people stop making this stuff up? Were the founding fathers isolationists because they wanted to have FREE TRADE with the WORLD, but NO political entanglements? If we keep our military bases on our own soil that is Isolationist? If we use the U.N. ONLY for meetings and NOT for policiy and law that is Isolationist?
It is real hard to take people seriously when they twist truth into lies.
Didn’t you get the memo? The United States military has been anointed by god to be the world’s police.
I would vote for somebody other than Reid if I had the chance. The fact that it would be labeled, clearly, as a protest vote would make me even more likely to do it.
For instance, in PA, if Arlen wins the primary, I won’t vote for him. Nor would I vote for the R primary winner. I would probably vote GP.org or even Tea Party….. something to register my dissatisfaction.
So, David- When you say: “And I don’t think any of that would come from Reid’s number, which would make him viable to win with 40-45% of the vote.”
I think you are wrong. There are many who would vote OTHER. Well, I’m projecting. But I believe at least SOME would come from Reid’s total. Is there anybody who ruins our chances for progressive legislation in the Senate more then the Leader? He has to go. I believe that I’m not alone in thinking that.
Like some other radicals I’ve read here. If we cannot get them out with a primary, get them out with a Republican, and try again next time around. I would not vote for him under any circumstances. (perhaps, if Palin is the alternative, I would not vote at all.)
PA voter, so therefore, conjecture.
cc
Actually, this might be a good thing.
With his enormous unpopularity among Democrats and bad performance record as ML, it is highly unlikely the other Senate Dems would dare give Reid the ML job again in 2011.
This could be a welcome and much needed 2-for-1 win: Reid keeps the seat in Democratic hands but we have a new ML.
We may need him to keep control of the senate, now that Bye Bye Bayh has dropped out.
Yes, there is a silver lining here. Bayh’s departure improves the chances that Reid will be replaced as Majority Leader.
I’m pulling for Harkin (I just hope his wife wakes up and resigns her job with ConocoPHillips).
I think the job goes to Dick Durbin if Reid loses his seat. Which would be a very good thing. Poor Harry Reid is too gullible, too slow to act, and too weak to use the power his office commands.
This was inevitable after the Republicans drove a stake through the heart of the Ron Paul / Tea party / Republican alliance. When the Republicans did that to them maybe they believed the “Internet only” myth. All of them had in fact been taught to literally walk their own precinct and gather support. They got real grassroots support, and were elected as delegates at the caucus. Nevada is a state where the biggest newspaper is not Republican or Democratic, it is Libertarian/Independent. There is no way they are voting for a Republican now that they can vote for their own candidate.
Don’t know if the tea party will save him, but I do know Reid is the political equivalent of decaf.
zzzzzzzzz
you so nailed it! ;]
California will never be split apart. It’s not in the cards. The best thing we can do is get the 2/3rds requirement for the budget to be changed to a simple majority, and legalize marijuana to both empty out a good portion of our prisons and take in about $3 billion a year in taxes which is now going into the underground/criminal economy.
It would also behoove us to take the prop 13 requirements away from commercial real estate, and apply it only to owner occupied first residences. I don’t see that happening anytime soon though, it would take a real strong leader that can also communicate on a lower level with the public and we haven’t had anyone like that since, well, ever.
I would like to see a massive investment (like $300 billion or so) in electric high speed rail from LA to San Francisco to Sacramento and also Las Vegas thrown into the mix. We could have financed it with bonds until Schwarzenegger went and borrowed $25 billion to make up the shortfall in the general fund (with the explicit approval of the voters I might add, although there’s a good argument to be made most of them did not understand what they were voting for), now it’ll have to be financed with a mix of public and private money. That would generate good paying jobs well into the future, with the desirable side effect of cleaning up the air.
Finally, let’s elect a Democrat as governor, Republicans have been in charge for 25 of the last 30 years and it’s time for a change.
i live in nevada– reid could run against turd blossom and lose–to many cons against to few pros
For the love of God the progressives need to run their own independant candidate vs. Reid just like the Tea Party is challenging the bought-and-paid-for GOP. Harry Harry needs to go. He’s been one of the worst Senate Majority Leaders in history whose shown no toughness or ability to get things done.
I’m tired of hearing half-assed non-relevant references to Reid’s brief boxing career. He’s shown himself to be a spineless corporate sellout and a Republican Party pushover throughout his tenure as “majority leader.” (Putting the words “leader” and “harry reid” in the same sentence is an Orwellian farce)
It’s time to take out the trash in Nevada. Vote for an independant progressive, vote for the Tea Party candidate just don’t vote for lame duck do-nothing Obama/DLC Toadie Harry Reid.
I can see it now 6 years in the Senate to get his name known nationwide and some experience under his belt then making a run for the W.H. with the full support of the TPN and the rest of us disenfranchised voters.