Some movement since I last updated:

Dan Maffei and Bill Owens, two central New York Congressmen who voted yes last time, are undecided.

Larry Kissell is a confirmed no.

According to the Hill, Marion Berry is a member of the Stupak 12 (which I have as a baker’s dozen), and Ike Skelton is a definite no.

So if you add all that up, you get 194 yes votes and 191 no votes. I’ll show my work:

I’m assuming that all Republicans save Joseph Cao are a no, and all Democrats who voted yes before who haven’t definitively come out as a maybe are still a yes.

There were 39 Democratic No votes before. One of them was Parker Griffith, now a Republican, and one of them was Eric Massa, now the saltiest salt not in Congress. In addition, three other Democrats who voted yes last time (Wexler, Murtha, and Abercrombie) have either resigned or died.

Of the 37 remaining Democratic No votes, we have 14 definite nos (I’ve documented all of these with a link somewhere on the site in the past):

Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton

That leaves 23 potential flippers, though only 13 have made noises in that direction so far:

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Mike McMahon, Scott Murphy.

The other 10 haven’t said boo. They are:

Travis Childers, Harry Teague, Lincoln Davis, Heath Shuler, John Barrow, Jim Marshall, Tim Holden, Charlie Melancon, Jim Matheson, Ben Chandler

In addition, there are the Stupak 13, who were all yes votes last time:

Bart Stupak, Jerry Costello, Charlie Wilson, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Joseph Cao, Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, Dale Kildee, Dan Lipinski, James Oberstar.

Kildee has said he’s not in the bloc, but he was quoted in the Politico “fix it in reconciliation” article as someone with concerns about the abortion language.

Then there are 10 other former Yes votes who have expressed concerns, though none are an out-and-out no yet:

Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens.

Some of those may have something to do with the abortion language, but I haven’t added them to the Stupak bloc yet.

If you add up those numbers, you get 194 confirmed yes, 191 confirmed no, with the rest in the middle. Obviously, this is fluid right now, especially in advance of actual bill language. But you can see why the leadership is still talking to Stupak. The votes are very hard to find without his bloc.

UPDATE: The Hill has John Spratt as moving from Yes to Undecided, so if you add that, it’s down to 193-191. A lot of these “undecideds” are just using the vote as leverage, so it’s hard to get an accurate count.