Some changes from our last whip count Tuesday morning:
• I hadn’t noticed Health Shuler’s strong lean against reconciliation back in February. I’d like to see something updated, but he’s on the cusp of a no.
• Jim Marshall said Obama’s plan would bankrupt the country, so the former No vote looks like one again.
• Mike Arcuri said yet again today that he’d be a No this time around (he voted Yes last time). I’ve heard conflicting information here, but after a guy says no this many times, you start to believe him.
• Mike McMahon, from Staten Island, tells a local outlet that he’s a firm no vote.
• Ann Kirkpatrick’s not in the Stupak bloc, but her vote may be in play anyway (she voted Yes last time). Same with Dennis Cardoza.
• Having dealt with Steve Kagen in the past, I think there are as many outs in his statement as there were back in November. I’m not putting him in the count yet.
You add all this up and you get 192 Yes votes, 194 No votes, with the rest undecided. There has not been a lot of movement in the Yes direction, which is to be expected at this point, in the absence of a bill and of strong whipping from the leadership. 192 represents the baseline number of votes – which could go lower – and a target for the Democratic leadership. But I still find this exercise worthwhile for the same reasons as Steve Benen. The public simply has a right to know, even if these statements are dog whistles or negotiating ploys. Otherwise, constituents cannot react to what’s happening.
Also, I don’t just take public statements at face value, but try to get corroborating evidence, note public campaigns taken out for or against various lawmakers, and also where Obama’s barnstorming tour is headed – going to Northeast Ohio surely is a sign that Charlie Wilson’s vote is in play, for example. You can put all this together and come up with a reasonable snapshot of where the votes are, how many are needed, etc. Right now, it looks like Democrats would have to get every possible No-to-Yes flipper along with keeping every non-Stupak bloc wavering Yes vote in order to pass the bill without having to run the Stupak gauntlet. And that’s worthwhile information to know.
The full breakdown:
Definite YES:
192 Democrats.
Definite NO:
177 Republicans.
Definite NO:
17 Democrats.
16 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon.
1 Democrat who voted Yes in November:
Mike Arcuri.
21 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes
14 possible:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.
7 less possible:
Travis Childers, Harry Teague, Heath Shuler (severe lean no), John Barrow, Tim Holden, Charlie Melancon, Ben Chandler.
24 potential Yes-No flip votes:
11 Stupak bloc:
Bart Stupak, Jerry Costello, Charlie Wilson, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Joseph Cao (R), Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, Dan Lipinski.
13 other wary Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, John Spratt, Dennis Cardoza, Dale Kildee, James Oberstar.





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About FDL News Desk
Grayson introduces Public Option Act
“Congressman Alan Grayson, (D-Orlando), today introduced a bill (H.R. 4789) which would give the option to buy into Medicare to every citizen of the United States. The “Public Option Act,” also known as the “Medicare You Can Buy Into Act,” would open up the Medicare network to anyone who can pay for it.”
LINK.
David, thanks for the yeoman’s job you do so very, very well!
The Daily Kos is trying to hold Rep. Dennis Kucinich directly responsible
for blocking Health Care Reform. He will not vote for this reform bill
without at least a robust public option. If we (Democrats) had three
hundred congressmen and congresswomen like Rep. Kucinich, there would not
be a health reform problem because we would have a single payer system.
The private insurance interests and their influence peddlers have
contributed millions of dollars into congressional campaigns and now
everyone is beholden to them. Mandating individuals to purchase insurance
from these privateers will not reform the real cause of the problem. Be
thankful that we have Rep. Kucinich to set the standard for what a
congressperson should be. Keep in mind the FDL pledge (no individual
mandate without a public option).
Pass it, don’t pass it.
Either way, the Dems are toast.
I’ll move to Cleveland to work for Dennis if Kos pulls a dumbass stunt like that. The more I know about Kos the more I think he’s a klown.
Slightly off topic, but why has Howard Dean fallen into line with current HCR push, without further voicing his specific objections. Yeah, he’s at the demonstration against insurance gougers, but seems to approve of Senate bill.
Thank God for Kucinich who has to take so much abuse from his own Party.
Markos has fantasies of being an Obama appointment.
Private insurance mandate or public option, either way the Federal Government does not have that authority in the Constitution.
This bill is bad. Adding a public option does not make it any better.
I’d vote NO with Dennis Kucinich, but not for the same reasons.
Has anyone looked at the funding for DailyKos? The insurance cartel has all kinds of money to throw around.
Me too. Marcos can threaten DK with a primary run all he wants, I live in Ohio, and I say bring it on. The senate bill sucks and why progressives think forcing people to buy private health insurance is the answer is beyond me.
Watch the media circus when Sebelius talks to AHIP and acts like she is scolding greedy big insurers wih a wink while feedng them billions.
Whose side is Kos on?
Here is Kucinich on Countdown Monday evening. He stood his ground, which visibly upset Lawrence O’Donnell.
Here is Kos on Countdown Tuesday evening, denouncing Kucinich’s stance as “reprehensible” and saying that he deserves to be primaried. (The subject comes up at the half-way point, 2:28, in the video.)
Precapitulation is a very bad tactic for those who seek to win, and Kos knows it. So, I have to ask, “Whose side is he on?”
Great job, David. Can you provide more detail on the inclusion of Marcy Kaptur is in the “Stupak bloc?”
Markos has lost all touch with reality if he thinks that he’s going to be able to raise money to primary Kucinich with. Progressives hate Blanche Lincoln but they love Kucinich. Maybe some partisan Democrats and some of the sycophantic bobble heads will give but it’s just not reality.
I have to confess that I am seriously torn over HCR. I watched Bill Moyers online last night. I thought Wendell Potter was pretty convincing on why we should support the current bill, and then I thought Dr. Marcia Angell was equally compelling in her argument against it. I have a young colleague with a husband recovering from leukemia (thanks to a successful bone marrow transplant) and they are stuck here very early in their careers because of his pre-existing condition. He’ll never get insurance anywhere, so that HAS to change. On the other hand, the bill is a POS and we should scrap it and let people buy into Medicare.
I am getting *very* tired of Markos on my teevee, though.
EDIT: I may start turning off Countdown when he comes on, like I turn off Rachel when Kent Jones comes on.
Whose side is Kos on?
Apparently and disturbingly, the insurance companies or perhaps his own though they surely seem to be making common cause these days. I guess somebody finally got Markos to drink the kool aide.
I’m beginning to wonder what side MSNBC is on. Then again, one needs only to take a look at some of the advertising profile of much of their programming content to draw some quick and dirty conclusions. (Drug companies.)
As for O’Donnell? Wazzup with that guy?
I wonder if he’s getting greased by some drug company money? If his little media empire is private, there’s not any legal requirement (that I’m aware of) to disclose such relationships. Or maybe he just wants to keep the career trajectory heading north, via teevee. Whatever the case, he’s becoming tiresome, to put it nicely.
I thought his primary threat was really odd, considering his connection to Jane Hamsher and FDL’s current fundraising for Dennis. But “Phoenix Woman” has pointed out over at DK that the primary deadline has already passed. So Kos is making an empty, somewhat silly, threat for some reason.
Actually, I must give credit to DDay for pointing that out.
My hero. Dennis No Fold. Almost always the first and last one standing up for what’s right.
Kos’ denunciation wasn’t meant as a serious tactical threat. IIRC he said that Kucinich “deserves to be primaried.” It was a viceral reaction of contempt and disgust for Kucinich having stood up to “The Great One.” And the same goes for O’Donnell. Recall the contempt he heaped on John Edwards in his HuffPo rant during the primaries for possibly wrecking Obama’s chances to get elected.
This is an ideal situation for (almost) every lawmaker and every insurance company in existence. Consider: they are never going to pass this bill. They know it. Meanwhile, the insurance lobby showers both parties with tons of money. Lawmakers in conservative districts get to stand up and tell their constituents that they killed the Democratic plot to “take over health care” and to make them be “socialists”, while the ones who live in more liberal districts can say they tried to adopt health reform for the “good of the people” but there just weren’t enough liberal members of congress but “… if you send me your check for…..”. Windfall on top of windfall. Everybody gets re-elected, except for the usual changing of some seats. The insurance companies get to hide the money spent on lobbying and by including it in their bottom line, use it to justify purging their rolls of those awful, unprofitable sick people, while raising the cost by double or even triple digits on everybody else. Then the CEOs, their officers and congresscritters all get together in a posh retreat and drink and party and congratulate each other. Even in the worst case scenario for them and this bill passes, the insurance companies still get to write the rules because they wrote the bill. It all comes down to money, who has it and who wants it. Period.
I don’t know which it is or whether it’s something else entirely but he’s no longer the guy I met in Austin several years ago. That much is certain.
Kos has always flat-out hated Kucinich. I don’t agree with Kucinich on a lot of things, myself, but I don’t let that stop me from giving him credit when it’s due.
What bothered me the most about that piece is that he deliberately mispronounced his name when I have heard him pronounce it correctly before. That’s just a cheap pejorative and no different that the Republicans using the term “Democrat Party”.
Case closed. Nicely stated.
http://www.bgladd.com/Karen_bin_al_Ignagni.jpg
I respect Kucnicih for standing his ground. But i also agree with Kos, that Kucinich like Stupak and all the other wavering democraps are putting principle and ideology before the American people. TPM reports “Stupak Get A Primary Challenge From The Left. And if Kucinich votes no he should face a primary challenge too. There are times were holding onto principles is admirable. this isn’t one of them.
If conservatives stand their ground and liberals don’t, conservatives will get the carrots and liberals will get the sticks. The White House will make it a point to intimidate and punish the side that seems to be the most intimidateable, and it’s now clear which side that is.
Don’t be. There is still a requirement in the Rahm bill for women, should they need an abortion, to get special abortion insurance. There is still no provision for getting less expensive drugs from a decent country. There is still no provision for teeth or eye care. There is still no provision to break the insurance monopoly. It is, in a word, shit.
Wigwam, I agree. But for the last 25 yrs conservatives along with their cohorts in the MSM have done a masterful job in dumbing down the importance of government, and the role government plays in our day-to-day lives. Sadly, Democrats have gone along with this ‘Anti-Government’ foolishness. Liberals and Progressive have failed in persuading the American people (who are dumbs as rocks at times) why government can actually work to their benefit. Republican presidents since Ronald Reagan have championed conservatism loud and clear. While democrats like Clinton and Obama run from the being labeled a liberal or progressive.
Ed Shultz, was pathetic yesterday.
It seems like Big Insurance is buying the morality of Bloggers ie Daily Kos.
How can any Dem Respond to the Question below, in a depression.
The Democrat I am running against just voted to have everyone in the State to have to buy Blue Cross Blue Sheild Health Insurance in the middle of a Depression.
What is the House Dem or Senate Dem going to respond with?
Daily Kos, Ed, Rachel, Obama, Rahm, what are Dems going to say to their voters, after they vote to force them to buy Health Insurance? What?
DK told Ed the truth yesterday, and Ed tried to ignore him, Health Insurance Companies in the USA make money by denying people Health Care.
Voting for the Obama, Max Baucus, Insurance written health care scam will result in a lot of hard line progressives and hard line tea party candidates coming to DC.
Again I ask Obama, how are Dems going to respond to the simple question from any voter why did you vote for a Health Care Bill that makes me buy Health Insurance?
Yes voting for the Max Baucus, Obama, Health Care Scam will end the careers of a lot of spineless DEMS.
The Most Important Point about this Health Care Scam is the Max Baucus, Obama Health Care Bill is not a DEMOCRATIC BILL, it is a republican Bill.
The elites have loss complete control of the GOP, Republicans know they can’t vote for corporate give aways no more, because their Base will kill them.
Stupak on promises of a future fix to HCR:
Truer words were never spoken. (Esp. in light of Lynn Woolsey’s public option bill promise)
corps are not “companies”.
corps are not “people” as in: We the people of the United States . . .
corps(e) are the dead hand of the East India Trading, LLC, reclaiming its indentured servants . . .
I no longer see or hear the words “insurance CORPORATION” any where; maybe the next pr move will be to call them “insurance bunnies” –tho I will remember that they are still corps.
corps are not “companies”.
Our language has become a marketing tool of the corpse, and I deplore it.
I also agree with Kucinich that the “medical insurance corporation” bill is a gift written by the corps for the corps and is detrimental to humans a/k/a “people.”
karen
No, it’s the other way around. Just wanting to sign any bill called “reform” hurts people. Trying to stop a bad bill is a good thing – voting for something just so that Rahm can cross it off from the to-do list is extremely harmful. This so-called reform bill is a piece of crap and if Bush had been the one to introduce it, those who are its most ardent supporters would be eviscerating this bill for being the largest corporatist bill in a generation that would both hurt our economy as well as hurt people.
Get the Fish wrap out here comes Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emmanual with their favorite Chicago “Gumba” tactics. Get Obamacare passed.
Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln is feeling the heat, far lefties are having a cow, the vultures are out and they’re eating their own.
What a time for Massa’s story. Even if there is an ounce of truth it makes the Presidents team look like “thugs!” Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), now has his living accomodations questioned by Rachel Maddow. Christian living, no diversity. No unisex bars closeby.
As Mike Tyson once said after a big fight “I didn’t come here to play monkey!”
“That bastion of truth “Daily Kos” who’s motto “All the Treads fit to print,” can’t sanitize all of the corruption in DC, is writing “puff pieces” to put a happy face on all of the “skullduggery” leaking out of Nancy Pelosi’s back door.
As one commentator said “Politics and bribes go hand to hand.” Presidents have always twisted arms and made deals. And when two-thirds of voters are opposed to your plans, you may have no choice but “shove it down their throat!”
But when Obama promised to change the way Washington does business, we had no idea he would use the Romanian model before the 60′s and 70′s revolution.
And all the Liberal and Progressives lived happily ever after.
I see the pied piper of crazy Jane Hampster is continuing to lead her brain dead children over the cliff.
You gotta love Grayson. :)
Probably. HCR has turned into a toaster oven for them and its they’re own fault. weak indecisive leadership and when it does kick in its for the Corps. for everyone to see.
Your wrong on the PO, but the mandate is questionable.
Potter now annoys me. I’ll lay odds that he’s a friggin double agent for the Ins. mafia, he’s their ultimate weapon. He seems like he’s their worst enemy, but after all is said and done he says give them the $$ anyway? Something is very stinky about this guy. When I was in SDS back in the anti-war movement we had a guy that came to every meeting and always wanted to blow things up or start a riot or do something blatantly illegal or violent. I always thought something was wrong with this guy and eventually he ended up turning out to be what is called then and today an agent provocator. He was an FBI plant trying to get us all to do something they could arrest us for. Potter smells wrong to me. I’d want to see where this guy is in a few yrs. bet he’s retired in luxury in some hidden location.
Stupak may be a snake, but he’s smarter and a better “negotiator” than all too many of the “progressives,” who delight in handing Lucy the football yet again.
No, the problem is not what u think. The problem is Gov’t has become the willing tool of the BIG Corps. I C this in my own community where Big Corps. buy whatever parts of Gov’t and pols they need and do what they want. They get huge tax breaks by strong arming everyone and buying everyone as well and the tax bill goes on the backs of there employees and everyone else in the community. They get regs. waived or they get special laws passed just for them, that make them more competitive and stiffs everyone else. This has destroyed the credibility of Gov’t in the eyes of many of us. Oh and if u think its just Conservs. that sell out to business your wrong both parties do.
You misstate Kuch’s reason for holding out.
Completely.
It’s not on principle, it’s on POLICY and LEGISLATION as written.
No mandate, without robust Public Option.
Because, with a ROBUST Public Option, the door opens wide to eliminating the mandate before it kicks in and the door opens wide to continually whittle down the private insurance sector as we move to single payer and government run such as Medicare/VA.
But you misstate Kuch’s reason for holding out his vote, be it abortion or lack of a PO. It’s policy, not principle.
Potter has indeed either turned or was a double agent all along.
Well written, loved your comment start to finish (including the SDS one, look at how the anti war groups were infiltrated and attacked in Seattle).
Know I’m WAY late to this thread, but Margaret you had some doozy comments, and I’m with ya all the way.
Mauimom again, spot on, as were many others.
The trolls, they do themselves in every time they open their laptops.
*G*
Sooooo Palin Like.
The deadline for primary filings has already closed. Kos was krazy to utter such a threat. In a popularity contest against Kucinich – Kos will lose.