That looks like a major departure from my last whip count. That’s because there’s been a major development. House leaders have given up on trying to please Bart Stupak and will try to pass a bill without him and his bloc:
House leaders have concluded they cannot change a divisive abortion provision in President Barack Obama’s health care bill and will try to pass the sweeping legislation without the support of ardent anti-abortion Democrats [...]
Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman of California, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said the leadership will press ahead without reworking the abortion provision, which opponents say falls short in restricting taxpayer dollars for abortion coverage. He predicted some of the anti-abortion lawmakers in the party will end up voting for the overhaul anyway.
House leaders had no choice, really. The reconciliation strategy made it basically impossible to change the abortion language in this go-round; Senate Republicans made it very clear that they would vote against any effort to waive the point of order with respect to abortion; and Stupak rejected a third bill because he didn’t trust the House or Senate to actually follow through.
Waxman may be right that many anti-choice Dems will vote for the bill anyway, and surely the tactic will move to persuading them that there’s little daylight between the House and Senate provisions. That’s what got Dale Kildee to flip, although an anti-choice site thinks they got him to flip back (note the language; sure Kildee has “not decided to vote” on anything, but he’s clearly disassociated himself, on the record, with the Stupak bloc). But there are seven confirmed members of the Stupak bloc, and given this strategy, you have to put them into the No column at this point.
That means that there are 202 seemingly firm no votes against the bill, at least in advance of any other data coming in. In addition:
• Tim Holden (D-PA), who voted against the bill last time, says he’s a no vote again.
• I’m going to offset this by moving Mike Arcuri (D-NY) back to undecided. He’s made some public statements to the contrary, but I have enough information to suggest that he could easily come back to the leadership’s position in the end.
• Republicans are really targeting Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), and their official positions are undecided, so I’m taking them off the “Yes” board and into the undecided column.
• Carl Cameron raises the spectre of Sanford Bishop, Richard Neal and Tim Ryan to vote against the bill because of the abortion language, but I’m extremely dubious that they would flip, so I’ll keep an eye out, but they’re not off the Yes board yet.
UPDATE: I see Michael Capuano (D-MA) is leaning no, according to TPMDC’s reading of a letter to constituents. While the letter is quite substantive, the word “no” doesn’t appear in it, and progressives have simply been far too accommodating throughout this process for me to suspect that they would vote no now after voting yes throughout. Excepting Kucinich, I just don’t see it happening.
Add that up and you have 189 Yes and 202 No. Crucially, with the Stupak die cast, and the determination to go around him set, Nancy Pelosi and the leadership has a tremendous job ahead of them. They’re going to have to hold basically all the “Yes” votes from last time not associated with the Stupak bloc, and convert as many as 12 “No” votes. She says she has the votes, but I really don’t know if that can be done.
The raw totals, on the flip:
Definite YES:
189 Democrats.
Definite NO:
177 Republicans.
Definite NO:
25 Democrats.
18 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden.
7 Democrats & Republicans who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Joseph Cao (R), Steve Driehaus.
19 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
14 possible:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.
5 less possible:
Travis Childers, Harry Teague, Heath Shuler (severe lean no), John Barrow, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler.
21 potential Yes-No flip votes:
4 additional Stupak bloc (rumored):
Charlie Wilson, Brad Ellsworth, Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello.
17 other wary Democrats:
Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, John Spratt, Dennis Cardoza, James Oberstar, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy.




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Thank you, David. Have you had a chance to add Student Loan Reform to this tasty stew, to see if there might be any vote switches based on a Grand Reconciliation Bill?
I’m betting against that whip count. I’m thinking that House leadership wouldn’t have bailed on the Stupid group unless they knew damned well that they had the votes somewhere else. Could be wrong. Hope like hell I am.
The Fascist Democrat Party (I no longer have any respect for them either, so I’ll call it the Democrat Party too) is just hell bent on forcing this POS on us.
The right wing was right all along when they were saying that. Who knew??
I will say again, I sure hope EVERYONE that knows this is a POS bill, and KNOWS that this ends hope for real reform, makes sure they send that message by not voting for any Democrat that votes for this. I’m doing my part. Fucking fascists. Still can’t believe what’s happened to that Party.
There is simply no way to give into Stupak’s demand even if they wanted for the most part. I don’t think it was a choice so much as a realization.
I absolutely agree.
Clearly it’s not in the interest of any member to say Yes yet. The key number to watch is the No number.
POS??? The public will be spun to believe that this is greater than Medicare, Civil Rights and Social Security all rolled into one. Since most of the provisions don’t go into effect for years our grandchildren will wake up one day and realize what a POS it really is. The U.S., however, will likely collapse before they come to that realization.
Good.
This is a bad bill that deserves defeat.
I for one am not willing to sell out Women’s Reproductive Rights for 2.5% Gross Income Penalties to enforce an Individual Mandate to buy Private Insurance from Companies that can Skim 20 cents of EVERY DOLLAR instead of providing Health Care, AND WHO WILL RECEIVE 500 BILLION DOLLARS IN CORPORATE WELFARE FROM MIDDLE CLASS TAXPAYERS OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS.
Or an Excise Tax that penalizes Teachers and other Unionized Employees.
And make no mistake about it- the Senate Bill is EVEN WORSE than Stupak and Barack Hussein Obama has done NOTHING to preserve Women’s Reproductive Rights.
ill pay the fine
Good to know. Like I said, I hope like hell I’m wrong.
And Jon, if you’re still reading, I’ve been trying to get you to answer a question for me for days now. Do you know if the “fraud loophole” regarding pre-existing conditions is still in the Senate bill?? And doesn’t that make it, in effect, no new regulation at all??
Altmire still seems to be their *star* No-to-Yes flip. He gets mentioned in every article, agonizing over the ‘effect on the deficit’ of this ‘massive spending bill.’ The others appear much more skilled at avoiding the media, while Altmire can’t get out of the way of a microphone, camera, or steno pad. He’ll show up on the MSNBC nighttime shows shortly, I’ll bet.
simple
TELL CONGRESS and BARRY
we want SAME healthcare THEY get at same price
It appears we have reached the point where passing a bill that the public opposes, the left detests, and that even congressional Dems know is mostly a giant subsidy for malicious insurance companies is more politically expedient than to let it die. Once again, political $$$ contributions wins out over good policy, public popularity, and even simple human decency.
Has there ever been a time since the beginning of the Progressive Era at the turn of the last century when Congress was so openly brazen about being owned by moneyed interests? We’re back to the time when the Robber Barons controlled Congress. Sorry, America, but you’ve been sold out to the big corporations who will continue stripping away the wealth of your citizens before moving on to greener pastures in China and India. Welcome to third-world economic status.
i called 200 of them and said just that
POSTCARDS FROM THE EDGE
GIVE US THE SAME HC YOU GET
I would like to know that too.
you betcha…wink,wink smirk
I’m pretty sure that once the public gets a taste of this, they’re going to realize it’s a POS too. And therefore, I believe it’s extremely important that we constantly point out those on our side that keep saying to pass this shit that they are wrong. We’ve got to make them own it.
Somehow, we’re getting the worst of both worlds. We’re getting a right wing, corporate, piecd of shit bill AND it’s the “left” that will get
creditblame for it.This is NOT, in any way, shape, or form, a progressive bill. And those that support it either really aren’t progressives or they’ve got other motives (financial???).
I’m so tired of this whole sorry venture into “reforming” health care. HAH! Nothing could be further from the truth than this shit “reforms” health care.
ot
McCOnnell has taken almost ONE MILLION DOLLARS from executives at Toyota.
So he doesn’t have the accelerator problem, then? Lucky him.
one could only hope,…shit happens
This just hit my inbox a minute ago. Interesting.
deleted
kos from my bookmarks
Just got a text from Barry, telling me to call Congress and tell them to vote yes:
Not that I’m following through on that. Paying to receive his propaganda (10 or 20 cents per text, I think) is quite enough, thank you. And then you want to make me make a frickin’ toll call? You can’t even spring for an 800 number to support your lame-o 13 million name email list? Beyond that, this is a crap bill and once the House passes the Senate Bill, all those promises of reconciliation fixing it will be promptly forgotten.
Sorry, pal. You bullshitted me once, and that’s all you get.
For what it’s worth, the Toyota plant in Georgetown, KY has been open and operational for most of his time in the Senate so as much as I dislike him, I can’t fault him all that much for accepting campaign contributions from constituents.
(Note: I have a few cousins plus other folks I grew up with who work for Toyota in Georgetown)
yea ,gotta give the old fukker a million up front,to keep the factories whirrring
And during the era of the Robber Barons the people were willing to get out on the streets and chase the fat cats and aristocrats down like the curs and scumbags they were and are today. Aside from a few sporadic campus demonstrations were are the people? Watching the American Idol finals?
Mr. Bipartisan is certainly brazen.
I think it’s becoming clear that he’s not going to answer, as I’ve asked now several times. Takes me awhile, but eventually I get it. *g*
Don’t blame him, cause it should be something I could find out for myself. But everytime I try and search for the text of the current Senate bill, I get an epic fail. I get the original Baucus bill, or some form or another that was prior to the last vote.
This is really important because over on the Senate side (and notwithstanding some blogger’s hysteria), Durbin has said today that they will pass ANY bill that comes out of the House (including one with a P.O.), they just don’t want to open it up to ANY Senators’ amendments.
This makes it doubly important that the House bill includes the same P.O. that it had before. The Senate leaders are looking for cover, maybe, but that could work in our favor.
Let me summarize it for you in five words:
Eat sh#t and die America.
Suzanne Kosmas(D) angered her Democratic constituents en masse by voting no on HCR the first time around. They (we) were super pissed. HCR had the supposed Public Option in it – in the house version that she voted no on. Consevatives were appeased, but nonplussed. They really don’t give a rat’s ass about Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Suzanne will likely lose her seat to Dorothy Hukill. Suzanne is always saying that her district is mostly conservative. I guess she likes it that way. As is typical of most Democrats, she won’t make an effort “to sell” Progressive policy positions to her ignorant constituents. Suzanne put all her eggs in saving NASA. Then, Obama killed NASA.
Hukill will say that she could have saved NASA singlehandly. Ignorant voters will believe it.
I’m betting that Suzanne will vote YES this time because she thinks she can win back the Democrats she angered by voting yes on this now extra shitty bill with mandates to big Insurance, subsidies to big Insurance, no cost controls, and no competitive public option to keep insurance companies from skyrocketing premiums and copays.
Suzanne will now vote yes, because she has poor political instincts. She models herself after willow-in-the-wind, stand-for-nothing, lobbyist-for-a wife, Senator Bill-the-Creep Nelson.
So what IS the language/status of the anti-abortion stuff that’s in the bill NOW [without a further cave to Stupak?] Are we just talking the language of the Senate bill [Nelson's crap], which Stupak feels “isn’t strong enough,” or are we somehow talking about the language in the House bill.
Please forgive my confusion, but there are so many moving parts.
BTW, my tin foil brain came up with the idea that if the Republicans were really smart and devious, given what a piece of crap this bill is, they would find 5 or 6 of their [Republican] members who are retiring, and get/allow them to vote FOR the bill, just enough so it can pass and be an anchor around Democrats’ necks. Those “traitors” don’t have to run again, and their Republican substitutes can make some sort of lame excuse for their predecessor’s vote.
If I were a Republican [shudder], I would rather run on “look at this piece of shit the Democrats passed: mandates, IRS enforcement, yada, yada” than “those incompetent Democrats can’t do anything.”
Based on the reluctance of all those Dems in “marginal” districts to vote for the bill, it seems to me like that’s how they’re reading the tea leaves as well.
Rachel did a piece on her show last night that — if I understood it correctly — claimed/explained that provisions in the Senate version of Stupak would be just as bad as Stupak. But maybe I didn’t catch that exactly right. (Was multi-tasking at the time.) Anybody else follow it closely?
I hope this bill doesn’t pass, because I am so ideologically driven, that I would rather have tens-of-thousands die every year, millions go bankrupt, and the country go deeper into debt than to compromise on my ideology. After all Stupak and the evil Insurance companies REALLY ARE that much more important than the lives of millions! That’s how deluded I really am!
Deleted Daily Kos from my bookmarks too yesterday. I never stopped by to read what Markos or the front-pagers had to say in the first place, but some of the diaries regular people wrote were intriguing.
No more. After trashing Kucinich for standing against mandated indentured servitude to the private insurance industry, not one more click. There’s a difference between being standing up for Democrats and standing up for progressives, and Markos maed his choice – let’s not address the problem, let’s just worry about electing the Democrats. He went from rightfully opposing the Senate bill as the POS it is to manning the barricades for it as gracefully as Joe Lieberman went from being for a Medicare buy-in to being against it, the instant Democrats needed to pass crap to save their political skins – as if this will accomplish it.
Primary Dennis Kucinich because he’s won’t vote for the Senate bill! Yeah, like he’s the problem here!
3 headlining stories at major MSM sites this afternoon, all refuting different GOP-told HCR lies.
I’m wondering if they are getting vociferous complaints now about spewing that propaganda for so long, and burying stories like tent cities and Wendell Potter and the AHIP Rally & March ; Arresting the Insurance Companies / March 9th
I think they may sense passage, and are trying to wipe their fingerprints off the obstructionism.
And they’re real sorry for Iraq WMD bullsh*t, also… ;^)
Balkingpoints / www
@Balkingpoints / Twitter
If you think a lot of people are going bankrupt now, just wait until the extortionists have the feds as goons… AND for the millionth time, Health INSURANCE does not equal Health CARE. Deluded indeed.
” I would rather run on “look at this piece of shit the Democrats passed..”
If I were a marketing professional I would much rather have the republican ‘against” account than the democratic “for” account over the next two elceton cycles.
delete
Rep Alan is Grayson calling on Nancy Pelosi to allow a vote on his bill to allow all Americans to buy into Medicare. Sign the petition for a vote on a real public option that people understand and want ! http://www.wewantmedicare.com
Long story short—the Stupak “bloc” is actually composed of 4 confirmed people, not 15 like he says. He refuses to name his supporters for an obvious reason, they don’t exist. The real effect of his “amendment” is overstated and this whole exercise is essentially a way for this far right religious kook/zealot masquerading as a public servant to get his name in the media 24/7.
He also refuses to answer the question on whether The Family subsidizes his living arrangement in DC since he only pays $600/month—and Rachel traced back the deed on their property and found one of the Family’s principal members was on it.
So, Stupak is paper tiger that is using healthcare to blatantly promote himself and his hardcore religious beliefs at the expense of needy Americans.
What an asshole.
Agree with you. Shame on Daily Kos to go after Dennis, who decided to put the difficulty of sticking to principle ahead of political ease and convenience. I commend him for this honest, unhypocritical stand.
They seem to have forgotten that he pummeled this K Street phony in a Congressional hearing:
http://crooksandliars.com/logan-murphy/dennis-kucinich-pummels-doctor
Did they give it to him in the trunk of a brand new car made in America?
TRMS claims the “Stupe-arse” bloc is at MOST 6 and quite possibly only 5, including the Barster, himself. And, seems to be shrinking by the day.
It is soooooo much fun to see the anger in progressives. You Guys are the GANG THAT CAN’T SHOOT STRAIGHT. GLENN BECK FOR POTUS! This is from one of the makers who is tired of the parasitic takers ( for you progressives this means you) always getting your way . NO WHINING ALLOWED WIMPS!