Just a brief word on the church of the savvy smugly saying that whip counts efforts like this are misguided because of all the “wiggle room.” I’m building that into my analysis. I think I’m representing an accurate snapshot in time of where the House is at on this bill. People are going to guess about this anyway, so a whip count that takes into account other information has plenty of value, more than a simple info dump.
In other words, NBC, I’m way ahead of you.
Here’s the last one. Notable developments since then:
• As I wrote earlier today, the Stupak bloc seems to be eroding. Steve Dreihaus, formerly a No, is moving into the undecided camp, while Charlie Wilson and James Oberstar frankly sound like Yes votes. I’m sticking them there and taking them off the board. I’m keeping Marcy Kaptur in with the Stupak-curious camp.
• Ben Chandler is a firm no. Not a surprise – he voted against the bill last time.
• I know that Luis Gutierrez says he’s a no and confirmed it with a statement, but there are too many variables here. Constituents calling his office are hearing something very different. So I’m not taking him off the Yes board, for now. He’s on my watch list.
• Vic Snyder’s a yes, but I think we knew that.
• The Hill’s whip count shows Henry Cuellar telling the Investor’s Business Daily that he’s in the Stupak bloc. First of all, IBD is a crazy organization and not to be trusted. Second, I’ve heard contradictory information on Cuellar, who said he could live with the immigration language and you have to balance the good with the bad. So I’m keeping him at Yes.
• John Spratt saying that Obama’s done a magnificent job with health care makes me think he’ll be there at the end. Also, the reconciliation bill has to go through his Budget Committee. I know he has a real tough re-election fight this time around, but I’m moving him back to Yes.
• The two votes in the House that the leadership may lose specifically because of pairing the student loan bill in reconciliation are Paul Kanjorski and Allen Boyd. They both voted against SAFRA in the House last year. Kanjorski is more crucial, because he was a yes on health care in November. It’s speculative, so they’re still both in the undecided camp.
• Harry Teague’s getting a lot of pressure, but doesn’t yet seem like a firm no.
• CNN pegs Tim Bishop, a former yes vote, as an undecided. That sounds plausible.
If you put that all together, you get 191 Yes votes and 202 No votes, with the rest undecided. Actually, with the erosion of the Stupak coalition, I think that the leadership is in slightly better shape right now than before, although they really need the final language to start whipping in earnest. Then you’ll see some more Yes votes.
The raw totals, on the flip:
Definite YES:
191 Democrats.
Definite NO:
177 Republicans.
Definite NO:
25 Democrats.
19 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler.
6 Democrats & Republicans who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Joseph Cao (R).
18 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
15 possible:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague.
3 less possible:
Travis Childers, Heath Shuler (severe lean no), John Barrow.
20 potential Yes-No flip votes:
4 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello.
16 other wary Democrats:
Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, Dennis Cardoza, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Bishop.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 18 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 38.




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About FDL News Desk
I don’t care what others say; you’re doing an invaluable service with these updates; please keep at it.
Yes, David, this is great work. Thank you.
I’m thinking we may have to start calling Mr Dayen – Whippersnapper.
Love the “Stupak-curious” label..
House Dems and other Dems must be going crazy trying to find the upside for voting for a bill that 54% of americans hate.
I understand Obama and Rahm goal to trash the Democratic party, and hurt the Democratic majority in congress. (Obama craves the idea of working with republicans, Obama is a trojan horse, he is no friend of progressives at all)
I also understand the slow walk or delay tactics to protect dems from primary challenges.
What I don’t understand is how Dems that vote for this Bill think they have a career in politics, it is not like the voters are going to forget you voted to make them buy Health Care from Blue Cross Blue Sheild
Donald Trump said the Chinese view american politicians as complete idiots.
If a Dem vote for this Bill I will have to agree with the CHinese we have some IDIOTS in congress. I mean a lot of them.
Thanks David.
It must be Friday, when I saw the Miracle Whip graphic my first thought was that it might be a post about the Lady Gaga/Beyonce “Telephone” video.
Given Pelosi today says the PO is off the table and will NOT be part of the House recon, doesn’t that screw up ALL polling, now that there IS no PO?
No, because all discussion past and present of a PO falls under the “if we can’t dazzle ‘em with brilliance, let’s baffle ‘em with bullshit” heading. House and Senate Dems have known from the outset the leadership had no intention of passing a bill with a public option.
You’ve seen that too, eh?
I am so confused. Can you clear something up for me? Yesterday I thought Jane said they may drop student direct funding for another year to get the bill through, now here and elsewhere I am hearing it will be paired with the health bill to get the bill through. Please explain?
It would be pretty disgusting if the No side prevailed, and I were happy the bill failed – for all the wrong reasons, because of all the wrong people.
Why all the talk about the P.O. vote count while ignoring the critical problem?
The HCR fiasco in the Senate must be KILLED because of the individual mandate!! Adding a public option does not extract the individual mandate from the legislation, nor will it in any meaningful way adequately counterbalance it.
Until and unless the individual mandate is extracted, which just will not happen, we are all DELUDING ourselves if we think that the P.O. will fix this catastrophe-in-the-making.
The legislation must be killed, period.
Thank you FDL, David. Fancy Nancy today surely did away with any waverers when she declared victory for the lobbyists. Now we are really dealing with the yay or nay for Universal Insurance Care. When do you think Health Care will enter the discussion?
Didn’t want to but I hadda. “g”
NOvember is not off the table, Nancy.
Big profile and interview with Jason Altmire on ABC’s Diane Sawyer sobfest last night (that woman’s voice always makes me think she’s gonna start crying momentarily).
I bet Altmire will flip to YES — he’s getting the kind of exposure only a flipper would get right now.
I am appalled by this bill – and now by the fact they are hoping to attach the student loan bill to health care to “force it through”. I really, really want the HCR to fail. I doubt if there will be any constitutional challenges to it – who has the money for a legal battle? And the door the bill opens is soooo scary.
Here is a telling story – I spoke this afternoon with two bright co-workers. They asked my opinion on the health care bill, knowing I always have an opinion. Neither one knew that this bill forces us to buy insurance or be fined/jailed. One of them even argued a bit about it, claiming that could not possibly be in the bill. But they know that I am a politics junkie and were quickly convinced. These two people work in media and had no idea. I cannot imagine how much of the population has no clue what they are getting into with this health care bill. Thanks, MSM, for once again doing a fine job of letting the populace know what is really going on in the political world. !@#$!@$
I’m with you, buddy!
That changed really fast yesterday. Jane was right when she wrote her post, and the calls started going to Capitol Hill. By the late afternoon, it looked like it had worked. Now the bills appear to be paired.
This administration is not working for the people. We bought the snake oil and the snake oil makers bought the messenger. We were fucked from the get go. It is time to move on. where to is the question.
Thanks. That clears it up.
As Greenwald said, they were for the PO until it looked like it might actually happen, then out came the knives.
Which Congress people (undecideds) can I call and ask to vote NO?
It would be helpful to have phone numbers if not too much to ask.
Quit voting for these a:$&;/”s who have no principles. I get so tired of the line “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”. It is crap, the good isn’t there.
They won’t fix it later they will be even weaker then. Hasn’t their actions with the banks, health care, etc. convinced people that there is no difference of any measure beyeen the two parties. Vote for a third party or just write in a name. I for one will vote my conscience.
Amazes me how many people treat a contest. It affects so many people and the many elected offials are not gutless as many think, but they are voting for the people that feed them with campaign contributions. They are just so use to so many people buying their bull, and rightfully thinking that, so they know idiots will keep boting for them
Toll-free Congress switchboard phone numbers, from (((((Katymine))))):
1 (800) 828 – 0498
1 (800) 459 – 1887
1 (800) 614 – 2803
1 (866) 340 – 9281
1 (866) 338 – 1015
1 (877) 851 – 6437
and personally I would call everyone
Same here. I’m working on Neil Abercrombie’s campaign for governor of Hawaii. Last night, I rode home with 3 other volunteers, and had previously had a conversation with an Abercrombie HQ staffer who was surprised at hearing of a hotbed of anger from the grassroots about the HCR. All four of those folks, who are very active politically JUST DID NOT KNOW ABOUT THE MANDATE and were, of course, appalled to learn about it.
One guy insisted that we have a mandate here in Hawaii. I had to carefully explain that Hawaii has a mandate that requires employers to give health ins coverage to employees who work at least 20 hours per week. That’s why so many kids in Hawaii, including my daughter,. are given only 19 hour a week jobs at Mickey D’s and similar places. They have no insurance.
I am just stunned by how confused the public, including politically aware people, are about this whole situation. The Dems will have hell to pay if this evil bill passes and people really learn what’s in it. Meanwhile, the Repugs are laughing.
(((((katymine)))))
Hi ya, Elliott!
I’m very glad to see Tim Bishop isn’t drinking the Kool-Aid on the Senate health care bill. As an activist in his district I can tell you he’s in serious trouble. The Dems just lost an Assembly district they held for a decade here… the last time the Republicans held that seat in the state house they also held NY-1. There’s a serious tax revolt brewing for anyone paying attention.
This bill is political suicide for congressmen in competitive districts. They better have commitments from D.C. law firms or lobbyists for a new job come next January if they intend to vote for it, especially without a Medicare expansion or public option.
*waving!*
Really, really great work!
And I loved this:
I’m one of Baron Hill’s constituents, and I’d be quite surprised if he voted “No”. I don’t think that’s the message he’s been getting from the local progressives, although my info may be out of date.
What I want to know is did Ratfood and Southern Dragon save that video to their desk top? Yuz guyz. Sheesh. But, I luvs yaz.
An example of ‘how they do it’.
Money for nothing and chicks for free.
Save your breath. As I mentioned before, when this bill passes, you will eat your gruel and be happy with it.
The cheering from the newspapers and TV stations will drown out ANY complaints or anger you may have.
It does not matter any longer what is in the bill or not in the bill. There is only one thing which matters; Democratic leaders want it passed, period.
The public has no role in this now. It’s over.
No single payer, no public option, no real cost containment, a mandate that you buy private insurance or pay a fine, and failing that, be jailed.
You will eat it. You will like it. And, there will be nothing you can do about it.
And the bad taste will kill real reform for decades.
“Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 18 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 38″
For those who are wanting this bill to die, the above quote can be reworded to state “14 out of the remaining uncommitted 38 need to vote no”. 18 of them already have once.
It is all a charade. These guys are holding out til the last minute to get as much as they can.
In the end, after getting something, they will fold.
This deal is done.
FDL is like freerepublic but without the racism and homophobia.
You are right, if the bill passes. That’s why I hold out some hope that it will fail. The vote in the house will be close.
This would be amusing if it wasn’t so sad. The bill itself is a weak joke that will have the effect of making the Democrats responsible for a dysfunctional health care system that they never supported or created, while doing nothing at all to fix it.
At the procedural level, this bill easily could have and should have been enacted last year, but the Democratic Party is too lazy, stupid, corrupt, and scared of its own shadow, and Obama too vain, weak, distant, and self-absorbed to lead. So, now there is the worst of all worlds, surrounded by false drama that impresses absolutely no one other than a handful of politics geeks.
Bottom line: “Much sound and fury signifying nothing.” The Democrats richly deserve the ass-kicking they’re going to get this fall.
Full disclosure, I am a libertarian. That means I don’t give a rat’s ass about abortion. I also don’t want to pay for someone else’s health care unless I am satisfied that their predicament is no fault of their own. It seems to me, that whatever you think “reform” is, this ain’t it!. If you want to cover folks with pre-existing issues, you need to have a government option because that is welfare, not insurance. Insurance is for stuff that does not happen to you every day, like hurricanes and car wrecks.
Having said I don’t like socialism, this is worse. This is crony capitalism. The government is going to hold a gun to your head and make you purchase a policy from an “approved provider” and fine you if you don’t. I hear proponents say that it is just like auto insurance that is required in most states. It is not. I can choose to walk or take public transportation. For the first time in history, you will have to buy a product from a private entity as a condition of citizenship.
Try this on for size. I am a Second Amendment kind of guy and I have a lot of friends. Police can’t be everywhere all the time, so I think you should have a gun for your personal well being. I don’t care if you don’t want or need a gun, I know best. Smith & Wesson has contributed to my campaign and they are willing to supply a few guns to the indigent that can’t afford their own if they can get on the “approved provider” list. If you won’t cooperate, we will fine your pacifist ass. Yeah, it sounds crazy. As a libertarian, I would never subject you to such a fate. Nonetheless, it is an apples to apples comparison. Kill this bill!
screwed up by FDL’s software
Mable, I’m a lifelong Democrat and not a libertarian, but no one is wrong about everything. I see plenty of areas, especially in social policy, where I’d be agreeing with libertarians. Example would be gay marriage. As far as I’m concerned, the gov’t should give every couple who wants to get hitched a civil union and leave “marriage” a private matter. That whole debate could be solved in 20 minutes if people wanted to do it. Another one is personal gun ownership. If I am on the jury and someone makes modern art out of a burglar and winds up on trial for doing it, I start out being highly inclined to favor the homeowner.
But onto health care. Way I see it, the question is whether this country is willing to see people go without care. I think that’s a worthwhile question to ask and to answer. If we’re going to say that health care is like, say, food, and we’ll have a basic entitlement because we don’t want people starving in the land o’plenty, then we’ve got to pay for it one way or the other.
Where I fall down on that one is where I do on Social Security. The government runs a forced savings plan to avoid people being totally destitute in old age. It’s a floor, and it’s not a real grand one either, but it’s something. That’s the way it ought to be with health care. If you can’t pay, then you get a basic level of care that ain’t too grand but will do the job.
If you want more than that, then you pay more. That’s how Medicare pretty much works now, so if I were running the show we’d just have Medicare for All. If you want more than Medicare, you step up with your wallet and get a better plan.
What the Democrats are about to pass is a real joke, and they know it. All I can think is that it’s a foot in the door, so as the ridiculousness of this soon-to-be law becomes evident, future Congresses will be compelled to fix it. This won’t be elegant, and in fact it will be messy as hell. That’s the best-case scenario as I see it.
One benefit of having most of the system government run is that government can then, if it so chooses, really crack down on the outrageous profiteering by Big Health. A private system won’t do that, because the demand for health care’s components is inelastic. You need regulation in these areas; even Adam Smith realized that complete laissez-fare doesn’t work.
Full disclosure, I’m a pro-choice pacifist hippie socialist vegetarian who’d like to take your guns and your meat away. I’d be happy to help pay for your health insurance, however, because I don’t want your tuberculosis-ridden ass hocking a loogie at me when I’m sitting next to you on that bus you’re riding to avoid paying for car insurance. You do know that public transportation is heavily subsidized with tax dollars, don’t you? You better hope that hypocrisy and idiocy are not pre-existing conditions.
May the probability tables (as opposed to God, who I don’t believe in) save us from the vegetarians.
If all I cared about was saving myself a buck I’d say please pass this so I wouldn’t have to buy my kid a policy or that the Feds. would have to subsidize it, but I don’t care about the $$. This BILL is the most un-American piece of crap I’ve ever seen suggested and whats worse is the way its being shoved down all our throats. The Gopers want nothing to do with it but for all the wrong reasons. The Dems. have become fascists because they are either idiots or they were never really Democrats to start with. What is happening to this country?
Hold on there, Social Security is not a private company. With this plan we are forced to enrich insurance companies who then will transfer some of that money to the coffers of the elected officials. You really think that flush with more campaign contributions the politicians will fix this. Of course they will, their current and past actions have instilled the utmost confidence in me that they will perform. NOT!
Go back and read what I actually wrote, as opposed to what you seem to think I wrote.
If this HMO wealthcare bill passes, the only Democrat I’ll end up supporting is Kucinich. I’m a swing voter between the Democrats and the Greens, and the Democrats are pushing me hard towards the Greens.