Expect two of these a day, if not more, until the final vote.
The last whip count is here. Since then:
• The outcomes in the House Budget Committee were somewhat revelatory. Allen Boyd voted against reporting out the reconciliation bill: he moves from a lean No to a No. Marcy Katpur, Marion Berry, Bob Etheridge and Tim Bishop voted Yes. In fact, Etheridge and Bishop took leadership positions on some of the motions to instruct; Etheridge’s words were absolutely enough for me to take him off the board; he’s a Yes. Bishop and Kaptur become lean Yes votes. Berry is harder to figure; he just put forward his own alternative health care bill, which signaled to me that he was giving up on this process. And he’s expressed support for the Stupak bloc. I’ll move him from a firm No to lean No, but no further.
• John Adler (D-NJ) tells his local paper, the Courier Post of Cherry Hill, that he’s a firm No vote, citing cost controls. That’s firm.
• Chris Carney (D-PA) told a local paper that he could not support a bill allowing public funding of abortions, but deemed himself undecided on the bill. I’m putting him into the Stupak-curious bloc.
• Jerry Costello (D-IL), another member of the Stupak-curious bloc, says he opposes the Senate bill in its current form, but that evades the question, since the Senate bill in its current form is not on offer. This is why Nancy Pelosi will resort to a procedural measure where the House can vote on the reconciliation amendments and “deem the Senate bill passed.” It allows House members to avoid this thing where they oppose the Senate bill “in its current form.” That said, Costello still could oppose the bill on final passage; I’ll keep him at undecided.
• The President traveled with Dennis Kucinich to his home district aboard Air Force One today, and got exposed to some citizen lobbying during Obama’s speech:
At the event, Obama began by thanking local dignitaries. When got to Kucinich, someone in the crowd yelled, “Vote yes!” The president stopped and said, “Did you hear that, Dennis?” And the person in the crowd yelled again, “Vote yes!”
I don’t think it really threw Rep. Kucinich; he’s staked out his reasons, and they’re pretty clear. I’m keeping him at No.
• White House officials listed Bart Gordon and John Tanner as possible No-Yes flippers, which I fully expected. Another likely candidate to flip, the retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA), remains undecided. Nothing about Adam Smith (D-WA) in that article, who is not on my board, makes me think I should include him.
• Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) held a previously unreported one-on-one session with President Obama last week. She reportedly continued to bring the discussion back to NASA funding for her central Florida-area district. I’ll keep her at lean Yes, and don’t be surprised if she comes out soon as a supporter.
Where does that leave us? Adler and Boyd are No votes; Berry goes from No to lean No; Etheridge is a Yes; Bishop and Kaptur go to lean Yes. So we’re now at 191 Yes, 206 No. With leaners – there are now 13 Democrats in the lean Yes category, and 2 Republicans in lean No – you’re at 204-208.
The raw numbers on the flip:
191 Democrats, including Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Jason Altmire (D-PA), who voted No last time, in November.
178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.
23 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler.
5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus.
12 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
5 lean Yes:
Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey
Glenn Nye, John Tanner, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow.
22 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, *Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry.
8 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Tim Bishop, Baron Hill, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Marcy Kaptur.
9 other wary Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Ann Kirkpatrick, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy.
2 lean No:
Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 12 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 22 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 34. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 12 of the last 19 uncommitted.