Jerry Costello, long thought to be part of the Stupak abortion bloc, appeared to endorse a No vote on health care reform with his local paper. Costello has consistently said that he opposes the Senate bill as written, but this was stronger than most of his previous statements:

But thus far, Costello, an 11-term Democrat from Belleville, is planning to vote ‘no’ on the Senate version of health-care reform if and when that vote takes place, a top aide, David Gillies, confirmed this morning.

Costello was one of the 220 House members who voted for the House version of health-care reform in November. Last week, he was undecided on Senate legislation that might come up for a vote Friday or Saturday.

But Costello decided to oppose the Senate bill because of the cost, what he regards as the insufficient curbs on abortion funding and the state-specific provisions added to win votes in Nebraska, Louisiana and Florida.

Costello’s aide added that the Congressman would be undecided on the set of reconciliation fixes, making this a curious statement. The state-specific provisions would be removed by the reconciliation fix, and through the deem and pass strategy there would not be two separate votes. In fact, I’d call the tactic “The Costello Solution” and not the Slaughter Solution, because it’s been tailor-made for him and other wavering Democrats like him, who just don’t have the fortitude to vote on a separate Senate bill even if they immediately thereafter vote to improve it and eliminate what they consider to be its worst elements.

Let’s be clear: Republicans are being ridiculous, about deem and pass, a tactic used as recently as today, on the jobs bill. But while that extended whine has been effective in delegitimizing the perfectly normal procedure (a core tenet of Republican political practice), it may be used anyway for legislators just like Costello.

However, the abortion language was always going to be a problem for the Illinois lawmaker, and this is a fairly clear sign that he has returned to the Stupak bloc and out of the “Stupak-curious” realm. So add another no vote to the big board. With leaners, you’re at 205-210, with Democrats able to lose only 5 of the remaining uncommitted 16:

Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Brad Ellsworth, Henry Cuellar, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Jason Altmire, Marcy Kaptur, Melissa Bean.

Foster, Mitchell and Bean are the most gettable of those left, but the rest are going to be very tricky. And if any of the lean Yes votes changes, then it gets much more difficult.