Tweet
Dennis Kucinich’s reversal and decision to support the health care bill changes the dynamic around the vote, but the ultimate question of whether or not the bill will pass was always going to be decided by the right flank of the caucus.
Adding in Kucinich’s support, and Ann Kirkpatrick’s, to the last whip count puts the number at 193 yes, 205 no, and 208-208 with leaners. That leaves Democrats needing 8 of the final 15 uncommitted votes to come through. The group includes five who voted no last time, and 10 who voted yes. So theoretically, if nobody flips to no, the Democrats have the votes. Here are the final 15:
Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell.
That’s quite a conservative group, all on the right side of the caucus. I don’t think Kucinich’s announcement really sways any of them; Kirkpatrick, a freshman from a swing district, would actually do more. And as I’ve said repeatedly, it’s the Stupak bloc, or members from it who split off, who will ultimately be in the position to decide this thing.
In addition, if Jason Altmire finally ends his public hand-wringing and decides he can’t support the bill, or some of the lean Yes votes I have switch things up, the count tilts again. As one House Democrat said this week, “We have no bill, we have no date, and we have no (CBO) score.” Until that gets resolved, there are still a lot of variables here. Kucinich’s announcement gives Democrats momentum, without question. But it’s not yet a done deal.
…The main thing the Kucinich switch shows is how completely ridiculous it is for any media whip count or hyperventilating blog to include Luis Gutierrez or Michael Capuano as a No. It’s not realistic at all to expect liberals in Congress to carry out defiant stands; anyone who’s been paying attention for the past several years can attest to that. Gutierrez and Capuano will be on the bill, in the end. Book it.
12 Comments
Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
I had higher expectation of Gutierrez and Capuano than I did of Kucinich. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Get out the KY Jelly, Kucinich is on board! Today a Congressman tomorrow an Ambassador.
Play by play of corporate congressional Kabuki is like listeing to folks announce a WWE match.
We just had the scene were Kucinich grabs the mic and talks about how he is joining some allstar hero crew to take on the villain wrestlers even though he had vowed all along to stay out of it.
But the most important similairity; the outcome is predetermined.
Some good data here:
Workers’ share of health care costs
spiked 70% in 10 years, study finds
Fast-rising premiums have forced companies to shift more costs to employees.
LINK.
Ambassador vs. a flakey, obstructionist, grandstanding Congressman.
Why, that’s a good thing!
Harry Mitchell voted yes on the House bill just to keep the process moving forward. He said that he was looking forward to changes that the Senate might make to the bill, such as removing the government run public option. I suspect he will vote yes when push comes to shove.
Dear Dennis Kucinich,
Thanks so much for nothing. If this bill passes I (as will many others )will be forced to pay the penalty tax because I certainly don’t have the money to buy worthless health insurance, and subsidies aren’t going to be much help either. I’m so glad you have/have had/will continue to have lots of inexpensive health care with the aid of my tax dollars. Just too f***ing bad for those of us who pay (and will continue to pay and pay and pay) for yours, but won’t get any ourselves.
Where do you think all of those people who have lost/are losing jobs and homes are going to get the $$$$$$$$$ for this stinking hand out to the insurance companies?
I donated to you thru Act Blue; wish I could get my money back — I will need it for the penalty tax. I guess your word isn’t worth much. Don’t expect me to support you in any way ever again.
My guess is that he will fall into a lobby job where he makes as much in a month as he does now in a year.
You mean like Blanche Lincoln? Or is obstructionism OK when it’s done for corporate interests and/or the right wing?
Thing is, I can’t see where any of these DINOs vote for it. They have the example of Vic Snyder’s bailing out of a seat right after FDL/SUSA polling confirmed what he already knew from the DNC’s internal polls, plus the DCCC’s own Chris Van Hollen concurring with Martha Coakley’s campaign that the fatally-compromised Senate bill really hurt her — and is hurting other Capitol Hill Democratic races.
Thanks again for doing the whip count, BTW.
As someone who’s long supported Dennis in his presidential runs, and as a single payer proponent, I support his decision today. I know he hated to do it, but it’s not fair to blame him; blame Obama for coming to his district to apply pressure, after Obama gamed the whole deal from the start by making deals and never using his power for true reform. Remember who stood up on the floor last week to try to get us out of Afghanistan, nearly alone on the floor. When Dennis is up against his own President’s glib talk with no walk behind it, he did the responsible thing, he’s going to vote for a bill that will do slightly more good than harm in reigning in some of the worst abuses of the insurers. What it won’t do is keep costs down or drive the bastards out of business, and so the next step after passing this bill is to start all over again supporting further steps, like Rep. Grayson’s Medicare opt-in bill. That bill would siphon off the insurance companies’ ‘clients’ so fast their heads will spin on their way to the hell they’ve paved for themselves. Dennis is still the most progressive and principled Congressman we have, and he needs our support for having to act like an adult among a party of children.