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The long awaited CBO scores on the health care bill are out, though they haven’t showed up at the CBO’s website yet. The Hill describes them:
The comprehensive health reform legislation will cost $940 billion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Thursday.
The nonpartisan budget office told lawmakers that the health bill set for a vote this weekend would cut the deficit by $130 billion over the next decade, and $1.2 trillion in the second decade of the plan’s implementation.
That would certainly satisfy the requirements of reconciliation. Previously the bill cut the deficit by $118 billion in the first ten years and around $1 trillion in the next ten.
With this release, the House can then vote on the bill within 72 hours, as per their pledge to post the text and the CBO analysis in that period of time before a vote.
More when I have it.
UPDATE: Ezra Klein says the coverage estimates have been revised upwards, to 32 million more Americans covered by 2019.
UPDATE II: A Democratic source tells me that the text and CBO analysis won’t get online for a couple hours yet. But one more piece of the puzzle: the bill extends the solvency of Medicare by 9 years, and reduces the growth of Medicare expenditures in the 10-year budget window by 1.4 percentage points.
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That $940 billion number is a typo. It should have read $5 trillion.
This is very good, particularly since the CBO is estimating low because savings from areas such as preventive health can’t be known in advance.
Just think of how great the CBO report could have been if it scored Medicare for all (single payer; not the voluntary buy-in if you want it).
does this cost include the billions we americans will be forced to pay out of our unemployment checks?
I wonder if they took into consideration all the people that will die between now and when this takes affect, 180,000, therefore clearing out the sick.
Good news for the Dems and for taxpayers
No reason we can’t begin to work for it starting monday. Lets make it happen!
I Can’t wait to hear how Repigs will find ways to shoot it down. Get ready for the Wingnut Pretzel Logic.
pure fantasy these numbers. We will put a tax in place 8 years from now
So when year 2009 is compared to year 2015 after this Great Leap Sideways Health Insurance Reform takes place what is this deal worth on the street to the bottom half of Americans as measured by income and employment?
Ease of healthcare access?( not same as mandatory health insurance “coverage” as insurance is not care ) Better/Same/Worse
Knowable healthcare delivery no matter where,when,why or what?
Better/Same/Worse
Poor,unemployed,underemployed Americans get same access/delivery as well off,high household income/wealth, well paid employed Americans get?
The worst mandatory AHIP “health insurance” products deliver within 90 per cent range of what the best AHIP products deliver?
CBO scoring seems more like thirty day weather forecasting and with billions of dollars of profit at stake here in a HC system that is all about profit this CBO “scoring number” likely is more number hocus pocus with abra cadabra politics framing a given.
How does it look on the street? Who gets in on the average? Who does not?
Is healthcare available on real terms that works or just mandatory health insurance buyins that are worthless unless the copays and deducts can be met?
Enough with the macro-economic bullshit. How will the bill affect people’s premiums? When was the last time you saw a friend or relative depressed because of the state of the National deficit? Tell Americans how shit affects their pockets.
What is wrong with you? How dare you suggest people will die as a result of passing this bill. Show us how these folks WOULDNT die if we did nothing. Of course you will say we should have……., but this is reality. Shoulda, Coulda, woulda is no answer to my challenge.
Let the fall of the United States begin…
Heh, more like 10 year almanac.
Are you sure? TPM and other sites all say 940B over ten years.
I anxiously await the answers to your questions. The numbers appear to be good for the federal budget…what will the bill do to my budget?
Last night Rachel Maddow detailed all of the great things that will happen once the bill is passed . . she never mentioned premiums.
Nonesense.
I agree with you but Brace yourself for some critics.
The CBO says the bill will cut deficits by more than $100 billion – based on frontloaded taxation, Medicare double-counting and the like.
it is the truth… in 20 years this country will not be recognizable. It is called the law on unintended consequences… (or in Obama’s case it is quite intended).
I’ll be waiting for my $1000 hidden cost of covering the uninsured to be returned to my premiums as soon as this bill is signed.
You don’t have long to wait. The Official Republic Health Care Denial Strategy will be revealed in about an hour when Limpy Limbaugh starts bloviating.
But Jon — where are your poms poms? Be a cheerleader–not a sneerleader!
snark attack :-)
Actually I concur with you Jon — far too many variables between here and there and with all the for profit skims and takings that will be gamed into this reform by AHIP players,PhRMA,hosptitals,clinics and medical sub providers from hospital linen services to waiting room furniture makers and everything inbetween one sixth of the American economy just got bigger.
Pure Romper Room I see you…and you…and you too.
Now where is Lambchops?
Oh, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.
1. the waste fraud and abuse will never be found.
2. The doctor fix will add $250 billion back into the deal making it negative regarding the deficit.
3. People will figure out ways to avoid taxes, so that revenue won’t come.
4. With their new insurance, people will use more services than anticipated and the cost will be far higher than estimated.
Also, that further demand for services and goods will drive up the cost of services since the supply is limited somewhat.
Man, and that’s just without even trying.
Jon, have you ever done comparable estimates for single-payer?
What makes you think the CBO didn’t take these Fish into account. Besides they are too complex responses for the Rethuglicans or their audience.
Totally Laughable! Anyone in their right mind knows that these number were simply pulled out of a magical hat. Hell they are not even scoring the actual bill, so this tells us that if a phantom bill will cost 940 billion, the actual hardcore bill will triple that amount. These numbers are were drawn to gain the supporting votes of all the fence sitters…….How stupid do they think we are.
Don’t worry the Death Star will arrive and blow are planet into itsey bitsey tiny pieces long before that.
Who cares about the Republicans?
This fraudulent HCR POS is coming our way from Obama and his D Party hacks and sell outs.
This D Party run WH struck stinkpile deals with AHIP/PhRMA.
Republicans had nothing to do with that.
Simpleton R vs. D Party reasoning is useless here.
Our side got screwed by our side. Do the break down. Fact up.
Your not angry this morning, are you? ;-)
Ah come on, the emperor’s clothes are looking fabulous today! See that fine looking ass?
“The CBO denies that they have completed their analysis”
The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet our House Democrats are touting to the press – and spinning for partisan gain – numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by our own Majority. Totally abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost
WTF
Please provide your source for this Quote.
Maddow got worse last night via the TV screen — could not believe the crap she was telepromptering — strictly ballroom — doing the dance.
…an apology for the crankoff — please accept… :-)
…better days ahead … we can hope … no thanks to the asshats that are giving us this so called HCR when in fact it is AHIP/PhRMA Welfare Plus/ Trenched In Deep.
Where was this found?
Fox Nooz
The Obama plan had a medicare tax on capital gains, right?
You have to read the guidelines under which they make their estimates. They don’t take those fish into account. And besides, in the past I believe they have made reference to waste fraud and abuse figures being very shaky.
But, lets really look at it. Do you think that any politician is going to create a body which is truly “straight down the line?” I mean of any party. It is non-partisan, but the rules under which they operate dictates that they have to go under the assumptions and outlines given to them by the politicians.
For example, the state of New York (or city I am not sure which), raised taxes on a certain income band. If the CBO were doing it, they would have to score it as if those people did not change any tax strategies they were using, did not move out of the state or anything else. Just as it is.
That score would say, “Well it raises so much money.”
But, in reality, the people changed what they were doing, some moved, some did other things and the tax did not raise nearly as much money as projected.