Lots of information, it’s coming fast and furious now. By the way, of course Democratic leaders say they’re five votes away; that’s been their entire strategy this whole time, to assume inevitability to get people on board. I prefer to count the votes rather than be swayed by anonymous sources.
• There’s the Stephen Lynch situation. He just voted to table the GOP resolution to block “deem and pass” after whining about it all day. And he’s meeting with Obama tonight. And he’s on the AFL-CIO target list. I suspect he gets to yes, but at this stage, I’m putting him down as a lean No. Especially after this outburst:
“There’s a difference between compromise and surrender, right? And this is a complete surrender of all the things that people thought were important to health care reform,” Lynch told reporters. When asked what might cause him to vote for the bill, Lynch said: “There’s one thing. If they put reform back in the health reform bill, that would change my position.”
• Speaking of that AFL-CIO target list, here are the names:
Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkepmer.
Cardoza and Costa will come around, I’m confident of that. Charlie Wilson appeared at a ceremony talking about the benefits of the bill this week. He’s not a problem. Oberstar already proclaimed himself a yes. Michaud, however, voted with Republicans on the deem and pass rule today. I think we have to throw him in the undecided category. Everyone else there is to be expected.
• Joseph Cao got a personal request from the President to re-read the Senate bill’s abortion language, and he will do so. I assume that, like last time, Cao won’t vote Yes until passage is secured. So there’s no reason to take him off of No at this point.
• Luis Gutierrez, after all that, just announced his support. Glad I didn’t fall for that head fake. So ridiculous. UPDATE: the full Hispanic Caucus announced their support.
• Betty Sutton, a lean Yes, will support the bill.
• No vote Heath Shuler gave himself an out to eventually support the bill, but it was a pretty small one if you ask me. I say he’s a No.
• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s opposition hardens. However, based on Allen Boyd’s vote on deem and pass today, and some things that I’ve heard, I’m moving him back into the undecided category.
• The Stupak amendment is all that’s holding up Brad Ellsworth.
OK, so then Lynch is a lean No, Michaud has to be moved into undecided, Boyd goes back to undecided along with Cao (although Cao’s a lean no). Add it up and it’s 191-206; with leaners, 203-210, with 18 undecided. Democrats would need 13 of the 18.
Full numbers:
Definite YES:
191 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.
Definite NO:
177 Republicans
Definite NO:
29 Democrats.
23 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.
6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).
13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
7 lean Yes:
Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.
5 undecided:
Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.
1 lean No:
Glenn Nye.
20 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.
5 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.
9 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.
3 lean No:
Marion Berry, Joseph Cao, Stephen Lynch.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 33. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 18 uncommitted.
The numbers:
| Tuesday, 3/16/2010 | Voted | Retiring | Stupak | PVI | No | Leaning No | Unknown | Leaning Yes | Yes | ||
| Aye | Nay | ||||||||||
| Definite No (30): | |||||||||||
| 1 | Adler, John | X | R+1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Barrow, John | X | D+2 | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | Boren, Dan | X | R+14 | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Boucher, Rick | X | R+11 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Bright, Bobby | X | R+16 | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Chandler, Ben | X | R+9 | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Childers, Travis | X | R+14 | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Davis, Artur | X | D+18 | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Davis, Lincoln | X | R+14 | 1 | |||||||
| 10 | Edwards, Chet | X | R+20 | 1 | |||||||
| 11 | Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie | X | R+9 | 1 | |||||||
| 12 | Holden, Tim | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 13 | Kissell, Larry | X | R+2 | 1 | |||||||
| 14 | Kratovil, Frank | X | R+13 | 1 | |||||||
| 15 | Marshall, Jim | X | R+10 | 1 | |||||||
| 16 | McIntyre, Mike | X | R+3 | 1 | |||||||
| 17 | McMahon, Michael | X | R+4 | 1 | |||||||
| 18 | Melancon, Charlie | X | R | R+12 | 1 | ||||||
| 19 | Minnick, Walt | X | R+18 | 1 | |||||||
| 20 | Peterson, Collin | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 21 | Ross, Mike | X | R+7 | 1 | |||||||
| 22 | Shuler, Heath | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 23 | Skelton, Ike | X | R+14 | 1 | |||||||
| 24 | Taylor, Gene | X | R+20 | 1 | |||||||
| 25 | Arcuri, Mike | X | R+1 | 1 | |||||||
| 26 | Costello, Jerry | X | S | D+3 | 1 | ||||||
| 27 | Donnelly, Joe | X | S | R+4 | 1 | ||||||
| 28 | Driehaus, Steve | X | S | D+1 | 1 | ||||||
| 29 | Lipinski, Dan | X | S | D+11 | 1 | ||||||
| 30 | Stupak, Bart | X | S | R+3 | 1 | ||||||
| Potential No-Yes Flips (10): | |||||||||||
| 1 | Altmire, Jason | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Baird, Brian | X | R | D+0 | 1 | ||||||
| 3 | Boccieri, John | X | R+4 |
1 |
|||||||
| 4 | Boyd, Allen | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Kosmas, Suzanne | X | R+4 | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Matheson, Jim | X | R+15 | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Murphy, Scott | X | D+2 | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Nye, Glenn | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Tanner, John | X | R | R+6 | 1 | ||||||
| 10 | Teague, Harry | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| Potential Yes-No Flips (23): | |||||||||||
| 1 | Bean, Melissa | X | R+1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Berry, Marion | X | S | R+8 | 1 | ||||||
| 3 | Cao, Joseph | X | S | D+18 | 1 | ||||||
| 4 | Carney, Chris | X | R+8 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Cuellar, Henry | X | S | D+0 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 | Dahlkemper, Kathy | X | S | R+3 | 1 | ||||||
| 7 | Ellsworth, Brad | X | S | R+9 | 1 | ||||||
| 8 | Foster, Bill | X | R+1 | 1 | |||||||
| 9 | Hill, Baron | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 10 | Kanjorski, Paul | X | D+4 | 1 | |||||||
| 11 | Kaptur, Marcy | X | S | D+10 | 1 | ||||||
| 12 | Kirkpatrick, Ann | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 13 | Lynch, Stephen | X | D+8 | 1 | |||||||
| 14 | Michaud, Mike | X | D+5 | 1 | |||||||
| 15 | Mitchell, Harry | X | R+5 | 1 | |||||||
| 16 | Mollohan, Alan | X | R+9 | 1 | |||||||
| 17 | Ortiz, Solomon | X | R+2 | 1 | |||||||
| 18 | Owens, Bill | X | R+1 | 1 | |||||||
| 19 | Perriello, Tom | X | R+5 | 1 | |||||||
| 20 | Pomeroy, Earl | X | R+10 | 1 | |||||||
| 21 | Rahall, Nick | X | R+6 | 1 | |||||||
| 22 | Space, Zack | X | R+7 | 1 | |||||||
| 23 | Titus, Dina | X | D+2 | 1 | |||||||
| Committed Votes | |||||||||||
| Democratic | 193 | ||||||||||
| Republican | 177 | ||||||||||
| TOTAL | 207 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 193 | ||||||





155 Comments


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About FDL News Desk
Bart Gordon no to yes. (CNN)
Do you have a link to your spreadsheet for all members of Congress, or just the ones you think are potentially wishy washy?
Just got off the telephone with Harry Mitchell’s office (AZ-05). I asked if his no vote on H RES 1190 (republicans effort to block deem and pass) was an indication of how he felt about HCR. No, the Congressman would vote the merits of the HCR legislation. I was also told that because the final version of reconciliation had not been released a decision had not been made.
Nice to see he’s getting some attention from the White House and the Speaker (he’s pictured with the Speaker on the front page of her site) though. It’d be nice to see the President campaigning here in the fall.
It took multiple attempts to get through. Apparently the ditto heads are out in force.
I have been watching web sites on the HC bills like a maniac for 72 hours, (actually more like an addict) but no more. Any fool can see where this is heading. The fiscally conservative democrats now have a fig leaf’s worth of cover by the spins their laughable leadership put on the absurdly tentative CBO report this morning. (Absolutely no mechanism for price controls ha ha ah) Stupak will make another deal last minute on abortion funding in the reconciliation measure (that really isn’t) that releases his 6-12 vote block, pisses off the left, and guarantees passage via the Slaughter option with room to spare. When the HC Dominatrix gives Arcuri a pass three days before the vote, you know it is in the bag. Three points, then I swear I am off this stuff for good.
1. I am a strong GOPer from a NE state (which makes me a moderate democrat everywhere else) but I am very impressed by your blogs’ coverage and vote tallying. I looked them all over. RCP; Politco; Roll Call, etc. etc. etc.) and yours was by far the most up do date and incisive. Other than the locofoco rants, it was quite accurate. On the other hand, like most left-wingers you may not have a real job and have as much time to waste everyday as I did the last three.
2. Your carping on liberal Congress people who sold out on the public option and (anticipating your plaintive renderings on Sunday) when the abortion language gets re-inserted into the package is the ultimate in naïveté. The dems who have sold out and will again come from Northeast states or DOJ gerrymandered minority districts down south. The only political threat they face is from the left. And who on that far side is going to challenge an incumbent for giving in to the House leadership to save the Obama presidency – anyone who does will be looked upon as a rambunctious fool. The old “Happy Warrior” phenotype in your party’s left wing has a long storied history precisely because it is so politically advantageous to become one.
3. Rahm is a prodigy, if you take genius to mean selling out your peeps. But then, he studied at the feet of a master.
Thanks to you and your party for giving my party the US Congress for at least a decade to come.
On that last sentence, at least, baystaterep is right on.
Not that it matters, in the long run. :-)
OK, now I really wonder just what the WH is bribing with. The WH is certainly very familiar with bribes, being the recipients of many, so I can only assume they have this down to a fine art. WTF are they promising?
So are we down to the “Speaker will give you a blowjob for your vote” stage yet?
This man’s views is why we need to get the Kossacks out of the left.
Because we can’t refute him until we show some balls on the left.
Interesting interpretation. If most GOPers are operating on those assumptions all may not be lost.. There is no left left beyond a few blogs
A mistake the conservatives have made is in basing their attacks on Obama as communist and worse. Obama and his crowd are Conservatives.
As long as Obama is still inviting people to the White House, the aura of inevitability they’ve been pushing is completely fake.
I completely agree!
Otherwise, it seems clear that Kucinich’s “cave-in” was intended (by WH/Obama/Raum?) to be some sort of tipping point that would give cover to other Dems, who would then fold their tents and go home… after they vote for the bill.
Pick off the furthest out of the outliers first and just work your way in.
Conservatives say Obama is a “communist” while Goldman Sachs and banks are in control of his administration. LOL!
Isn’t the fact that Obama is delaying the trip until June, indicative of the fact that passage, if it ever occurs, is going to take at least 2 months to occur?
Who even knows anymore with this guy?
One thing you haters can’t do is give them “incentives” like the President can. You are going to lose, you’ve already lost. Deal with it.
I must be misreading the whip count, so could someone clue me in to its meaning? I see the No number growing despite the Kucinich and other democrats’ switching from No to Yes. It does seem that FDL is rooting for the bill to fail, but what’s with the screwy representation of the prospective vote count?
GObama! The Noes are dropping like flies!
There’s a saying about “counting chickens” that comes to mind. Plus the “inevitability” meme worked so well for Hillary Clinton.
Just saying…
No conservative I know calls Obama a communist.
Don’t be a fool.
Really, had a look at those Tea-Bagger signs lately?
I don’t doubt Ellsworth will do it if they make him, but they throw the Indiana senate seat to the GOP at that point if he’s their candidate.
Not that I think he could win having voted for China free trade, but still.
LOL. You are clueless.
This bill is a disaster.
The hardest hit by this plan won’t be those earning more than $250,000 a year—the group, the group that needs to “pay their fair share.” It will be families whose combined annual income is around $100,000 who could be crushed under this plan.
These folks will be too “rich” to qualify for ObamaCare’s subsidies, but probably too poor to easily afford the pricey insurance that the president’s plan forces them to buy.
Many of these $100K families will be obliged to buy a policy costing an average of $14,700 for the mid-level, “silver” health plan, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. After income taxes, they’ll be spending almost a quarter of their net income for health insurance.
When you get this close to a vote, it’s futile to count votes. It will pass, just deal with it. Everything is process with you folks isn’t it? The inevitability meme……there is a little more to their tactics than just saying it is going to pass, arm twisting, promises, handouts. That’s the way Washington has worked for many years and will unfortunately continue to work for many to come. I’m glad it is working in my favor this time. You haters should all check yourselves into institutions right now before the rush.
Your charm is only exceeded by your sense of superiority.
Let us begin:
First, you wrote
I then pointed out Tea-Baggers do it all the time. As for your numbers, I suspect they have as much to do with reality as you reply to me has to do with what I wrote.
As peeved as people are at the Dems and they are make no mistake. The only people americans are even more peeved at and less trusting of is the cons. You people have NO plans for the country, NO ideas to rectify the complete and utter mess your “so called leadership” took this country in, and NO possibility of taking back either house in the next election. In fact I would like to thank you and the repukes for taking this country from a surplus to the brink of disaster and then some in only 8 long ass years.
Good one Kelly, beat the rush, really. Go now….you will feel so much better. You wouldn’t want any of this now would you?
1. CUTS THE DEFICIT Cuts the deficit by $130 billion in the first ten years (2010 – 2019). Cuts the deficit by $1.2 trillion in the second ten years.
2. REINS IN WASTEFUL MEDICARE COSTS AND EXTENDS THE SOLVENCY OF MEDICARE; CLOSES THE PRESCRIPTION DRUG DONUT HOLE Reduces annual growth in Medicare expenditures by 1.4 percentage points per year—while improving benefits and lowering costs for seniors. Extends Medicare’s solvency by at least 9 years.
3. EXPANDS AND IMPROVES HEALTH COVERAGE FOR MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES Expands health insurance coverage to 32 million Americans Helps guarantee that 95 percent of Americans will be covered.
4. IS FULLY PAID FOR Is fully paid for – costs $940 billion over a decade. (Americans spend nearly $2.5 trillion each year on health care now and nearly two-thirds of the bill’s cost is paid for by reducing health care costs).
Don’t know where you get the part about “haters” – that’s silly. When you go into a store to buy something do you say “I want the cheapest product you have but I want to spend the most money for it?” I doubt that you do but that’s what this health insurance bill is. I hope you don’t have to use it.
Chicago trained.
I know most of you commenters are republicans, but for you few progressives who drank Jane’s Kool-aid, America is not a socialist country and unfortunately won’t be any time soon. Captitalism is driven by profits, sorry to inform you of it. Yes, health insurance companies will continue to make profit, once again, we are a capitalist nation, that’s what happens. Since we are stuck with capitalism for a while, if not forever, we need to get what we can for the people and passing a bill that takes away any profit is not going to happen. The glass is half full, folks. And President Obama is about to get a major win, which I believe is what most of you really don’t want to happen, I don’t think you really care about any of my relatives who are going to immediately benefit from this bill. You are not progressive if you see punishing health care companies as a higher priority than covering people with pre-existing conditions, children, portability, subsidies…..
Really, if you few progressives commenting here are so frustrated, their are a few socialist countries left, I think. I know I’ve thought about moving to one of them, especially during Bush’s terms. Go on, you’ll be much happier in a real socialist country instead of the imaginary one in your head. I wish our country was socialist, but I know we currently aren’t.
You aren’t under the impression this bill will reduce Health Care expenditure from 2.5T to 940B a year are you?
I’ve been lurking here for years, my friend, and you’re going have to do a little better than that.
As an ardent supporter of the Democratic Party how would you respond to the following Republican talking points:
1. Would you approve reductions to Medicare and Social Security?
2. Would you approve new taxes on consumption (regressive taxation)?
3. Would you consider adjusting taxes of the top 5% bracket to Reagan Administration levels, or maybe JFK’s?
4. Would you approve privatization of Public Education?
5. Would you approve of an attack on Iran, understanding that an attack by Israel directly implicates the US?
PO would cut deficit more. Also cutting Military spending in half wouldn’t hurt either. That’s what Real Liberals support.
Remains to be seen. I do not see how the Part D insurance premiums are going to go down, for starters.
That’s the rub; covered, not necessarily served. The coverage is mandated but not the care. Institutionalizing payments to a middleman insurer is not the same as receiving actual care.
Blatantly, there are no cost controls and no rate regulatory process.
Also, it forces women’s repro rights backward in time.
REAL LIBERALS support Single Payer, and failing that, the PO, not this corporate-serving travesty.
Those are CBO’s numbers that were just released. If you don’t believe them, you don’t believe them.
I’m under the impression he hasn’t read the bill. His relatives are at least 4 years out from getting any help unless they are 200% under the poverty level.
It’s really ridiculous to claim that I’m cooking the books somehow, when this is about the MOST OPTIMISTIC WHIP COUNT OUT THERE, including The Hill, Hotline, RCP, etc. I don’t jump at ghosts (never had Gutierrez as a no) and I clearly explain every single piece of my reasoning. The fact is that there really are about 211 confirmed No votes at this point. There’s still a path to victory – in fact, developments are making it more likely – but every single change in the whip count is fully accounted for. I don’t know what more I can do for you on this.
No, clearly they should be rewarded for their efforts, as you believe, all on the backs of the middle class to boot.
no. It means that June was the next open date on the schedule.
Doing nothing Kelly means people will die. Are you cool with that?
Do you remember how CBO scored Medicare Part D?
Given the dates that this kicks in, there’s roughly about 180,000 who are going to die.
You cool with that?
How’s about a link?
answers
1. It depends. The question is very vague, all else being equal, NO. If other measures helped to supplement those cuts. YES
2. No to consumption tax, but I am in favor of a Value Added Tax. It is complicated but after learning about it, it makes a lot of sense.
3. YES, I think the top rates should be returned to pre-Reagan levels. Millionaires are doing just fine, I’m not real worried about them getting by.
4. NO to privatization of education, it’s a terrible idea. I lean socialist, so hell not to privatization.
5. NO to an attack on Iran by us or Israel. Israel needs a smack down in my opinion.
How did I do?
Millions left uncovered also means people will die, I guess you’re okay with that.
Or under the age of 18. I believe most of the stuff for kids kicks in right away.
I’m talking about pre-existing conditions, not poor relatives. I have a couple of nieces with bad health who can’t get insurance. It’s bleeding their parents, my brother and his wife, dry. This will immediately benefit them. What do say to that tbsa?
I guess you are saying if some have to die, they should all die, huh? some is way better than nothing. And really, don’t you people understand that if we don’t pass something, we aren’t going to have another chance for many years? Do you? Answer this question please. I’ve asked it on here before and not one person has the balls to answer it.
no I’m not cool with that. But if we do nothing, how many more will die?
great!
should Obama begin making cuts and privatizing #1, will you still love him?
and should he attack from the right on all the subsequent issues, is there a point at which you’d tell him to fuck off, and if so then where do you draw the line?
Then there’s something wrong with your logic. If you believe that it reduces costs from 2.5T to 940B, how is it that it only saves 130B for the first ten year? Then only 1.2T for the next ten? Look at your numbers, a reduction from 2.5T to 940B is 1.06T a year, no, times 10 is 10.6T over the first ten years, right?
Because it’s a false construct.
Particularly when one of the memes is “we’ll fix it later.”
If there’s a “later” for the “fix” there’s both a now AND a later for doing it correctly.
http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0310/CBO_numbers.html
“When you get this close to a vote, it’s futile to count votes. It will pass, just deal with it.”
This makes no sense. If it is sooo close, why would it be automatically guaranteed to pass?
And I will say it again. How is needing to get 11 of 16 undecided votes a sure-fire thing?
I’m sorry about your brother’s family and I hope this bill helps them, if it passes. But they may pay a huge price for the coverage and get jerked around by the insurance company. I hope not.
That’s why this is not a good argument.
One amount of people dying is ok, another amount is not ok.
I’m not going to speculate about scare tactics and suppositions. Have you been watching FOX News or something? What is your source for this speculation, your own head?
particularly when Medicare for all -defended by Reps and baggers alike,-would have been easily offered up for a vote.
You have reproductive rights.
It is called not having sex.
Benefit them how? The insurance companies only have to offer these policies up to 70% of the cost, right? So if they can afford 30% plus the premiums, then God Bless, otherwise, I’m sorry, this is just going to slow the bleed, but bleed they will. All the while, we haters were trying to screw everyone into paying at most 10% of their income period.
these are a legitimate questions. I do not watch any fucking News other then BBC always with much suspicion. All my sources are on the internet.
Everybody who knows me here, please join my hearty laughter! LOL!
but Kelly, I said the exact opposite. NO people dying is alright! Answer my question about the chance of getting anything better? Answer it? Do you think in an election year after the last 14 months of this bill, that they are going to start again. NO freakin way, so all those marginal benefits won’t happen. Prices will continue to rise and insurance companies will make much more money if this doesn’t pass. YOU ARE SIDING WITH THE INSURANCE COMPANIES. Wake up!
Fair enough, but re-read it, it doesn’t say costs are going to go down to 940B from 2.5T.
That was a good laugh.:)
Not doubting your counts, but one additional thing you could do is to show the current whip counts for the othr major sources, just as a means of a comparison.
Also, I have asked others here, but gotten no answer so far:
If you need 11 of 16 (68.8%) remaining hotly contested votes and have only been collecting 45-50% of the vote so far, how can you say that passage is likely to inevitable?
I’m certain most here would give you an answer to the questions I posed to you. Your refusal makes you seem like a hopeless and gutless ‘bamabot.
Prices are still going to rise. Any savings come from prices not rising as fast as they would with out the bill, not from an actual reduction in current costs.
I am in no way siding with slime bag insurance companies.
And the point about getting anything better? That is clearly in the lap of Obama, Reid and Pelosi, and particularly Obama.
We have what he wants, and so you’re right there will not be anything better.
Institutionalizing mandated payments to corporations for no guarantee of cost or benefits is something I am flat unwilling to support, no matter how you care to characterize it.
Trying, but failing. The senate is conservative, did you not know that? We have Ben Nelson, Mary Landieu, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman…..you are just plain naive if you think the current senate could pass anything more progressive. And I guess that’s what the whole Hamsher gang is deluded by, you all can’t seem to comprehend the reality of the current makeup of the senate. Naivete……and it’s quite futile trying to argue with you folks because you can’t even answer one simple question about how you would pass anything better.
I’m still chuckling. heh.
People with pre-existing conditions should definitely be REFUSED coverage!!!
An analogy is flood insurance. If you get insurance BEFORE the flood, then the insurance company will pay for all or most of your flood damages.
If you wait until the flood actually occurs, then you get REJECTED.
Why shouldn’t health care be the same way?
David’s been kicking serious ass with this thing, don’t cry you don’t like it. It’s free to you live on the internet.
good.
I am totally against giving free people EVEN MORE things for free, when they could easily just work harder to be able to afford it.
Yea, you clever name callers, if I don’t agree with you about something I”m some sort of “bot”. Name calling, isn’t that usually a republican thing? Grow up, you aren’t in middle school anymore.
“We have Ben Nelson, Mary Landieu, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman”
What remains is still a majority so what is your point? Bush shoved his wet dreams down our throats with 50+Dick.
So, what’s stopping the Dems?
We really, really want to know!
I didn’t ask for your agreement, I asked for a commitment to principles, either way. Since you have none, much as our Prez, you are a ‘bamabot in my book. The choice was yours.
Fuck that, man, we were all here, we watched the whole disgusting dance. Now you want to come here and scold people, like we didn’t ‘understand’? Lmao, go ahead if it makes you happy.
Well you named 4 Senators, we only ever needed 50, so were are the other 7 conservative no votes coming from?
Sigh, the “people will die” argument.
“realliberal” jim, think long-term then. More people will die without a public option. Even with a public option, more people will die because we didn’t go single-payer. See how that works?
I’m biting my nails! Not!
20% unemployment and killing the other guy with a job to get one to support oneself is a crime. What’s your solution to this quandary?
they are blinded by faith.
???????
I was showing him how he could improve the page. It is great to begin with.
And my point was that getting 11 of 16 seems like a 20% spike in their vote acquisition to this point.
And these are 16 tough votes to get.
I was asking for his opinion on why some of these commenters think this is LIKELY?
Thanks for the page!
It’s the inevitability meme
where the hell did you get a 20% unemployment figure?
I thought it was ~9.5-10%?
Sorry. I’ve been amazed by David’s work on this thing. Didn’t mean to be a dick.
Are you saying the commenters are trying to make it seem inevitable?
LOL
Grow up!
Answer my question?
“LOL
Grow up!”
Awesome!
Somebody should learn what a Captive Market is and it’s effect on prices to see that they are on the side insurance companies and are further empowering insurance companies with their support of this bill.
U-6 @ 16.9 is getting close enough for a hell of a lot of American families. You ignore the fact that when when a worker looses his job, his whole family suffers.
I’m fine resting with 9.5 % – what’s your argument again?
It is ok.
I am amazed as well.
I even went back to read all of the other updates, upon discovering the feature on Monday.
But by looking at all the updates, the numbers have not budged much net-wise, and what has moved, is on a 1:1 ratio.
So if you need 25 of 34 to pass, you are then going to eventually need 16 of 16 and then 15 of 14, upon which it will fail by double-digits.
How is that close?
We need 60, remember, and I put a “…..” meaning there are more, I guess I assumed you knew there were more centrist democrats, I’m sorry I should have listed them all for you.
The reason you’re here is that you need to convince us you’re not a sellout sucker who just got screwed. The suspicion is creeping in and you don’t like the feeling, so you gotta do something. I’m amused by you, so desperate and angry.
: )
I do not think I posted towards you, but someone else posted that “this may be our only chance for a generation to pass it,” upon which I responded, “Good! I am tired of poor people getting EVEN MORE stuff for free, when they could just work harder to be able to afford it.”
Plus, with the exception of this champion88 person, he is obviously arguing with LIBERALS, not Republicans.
That should be acknowledged imo.
No we don’t need 60, what do you think this reconciliation thing is about? Which is what could have always been done.
I know you all have your heads stuck in the sand and don’t believe that the democrats are going to fix the bill in the next year or three through reconciliation, which is the only way we’re going to get anything done after the midterms, especially with you “progressives” LOL, attacking our democratic president.
I’m sure in the next 3 years as things improve with the health care plan, you all will find some other reasons to hate President Obama because he is a pragmatist and sees making incremental change as way better than taking our ball and going home, handing the white house to the republicans again and possibly the congress.Then you all will really have something to bitch about.
There are all kinds of things going on that we don’t know, part of the strategy for passage is to keep everyone guessing even after you have the votes. So there’s an undercurrent aside from just David’s counts.
I’m sitting here with a smile on my face, I’m not angry at all. I’m pretty sure this bill is going to pass, why would I be angry.
OK, I’ll bite. I just said that, in the long-term, health care “reform” without a public option, and even more-so without single payer, will result in more deaths. If we’re going to play the (rather juvenile) “how many will die?” game, then you are opting for more deaths with the current bill.
And, BTW, fucknoclass was simply setting up a thought experiment so that you could perhaps empathize with how we feel when one of our core values are compromised. He simply asked how you would feel if one of your articulated values were thrown under the bus by your President.
Reconciliation can’t do anything to change how insurance companies operate, it’s all budget based. Those are the limitations of reconciliation.
not for long, buddy. Once reality comes crushing upon your household it will wipe that smile off your face with a slap that will send you reeling in self disgust.
That wasn’t my question. How are you going to get a bill to pass with single payer or PO? HOW? Which centrist democrats are you going to sway?
Ooooo, drama. I like drama. You guys really do think the sky is falling don’t you. Have you been listening to Michelle Bachman and Glenn Beck? Really, watch Rachel and Keith, they are much better.
You sound pretty angry, Jim.
: )
Odd, they seem to be using it to pass some sort of health care thingy as we speak, no? If they can use it now, for what you admit, has no effect on insurance companies, then why didn’t they use it for the House bill? The House Bill which was more generous and saved more money to boot.
You’re not tracking the process correctly.
Now that 60 votes aren’t needed, the argument that the PO needed 60 is and was bogus.
Funny, I’m a sellout sucker. I see you fighting against this bill as a sellout to insurance companies, they would be much better off without this bill. Much better off, who is the sellout? You are.
answer the questions, or go find some balls, brains, – both.
Well, I’m not going to be able to, and… OMG, how many will die if I can’t?!!!!11!!
/s
can you hear me, seriously, I have a smile plastered on my face.
these fucks don’t even process the reality they wake up to every glorious fucking day! Hopeless!
Insurance companies would be better off with out this bill, are you kidding? They just got 30 some million new customers, paid for by taxing the middle class, with out having to reduce their costs at all.
Really? Are you a sociopath or something? This is not a funny topic.
Oh, here it comes, try to drive away the guy who is making you look like a fool.
I answered all questions posed to me, you still haven’t answered mine, but I really didn’t expect it.
Here is Wellpoint’s stock chart for today, Jim. Market down, Wellpoint up like a rocket (top right).
http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&q=wlp
Still smiling, Jim?
: )
No you didn’t. Here’s fuckno’s question again (from #49):
Give it a shot – you’ll be taken more seriously. (And I apologize for the sociopath remark – I just thought it was strange that you thought it would be a good thing to be smiling during this discussion…)
But they have to cover sick people, you know, the ones who actually file claims that they then have to pay. Did you hear the recent story of a software program that automatically audited anyone who was diagnosed with HIV and then cancelled their policy? That’s the type of thing that has to stop.
So are you ignoring the whole fact that sick people balance out the healthy people, we make the pool bigger with healthy people having insurance and paying premiums so those who are sick can get care?
You all focus on this narrow mandate idea without looking at the bigger picture. You demonize corporations (which generally deserve it), but you use that like Republicans use the work “terror”……scare people, it’s very much a republican tactic you FDLers are using. How do you sleep at night? Next to Newt Gingrich. :) I’m still smiling!!!
I love you all and hope you benefit from this health care bill and live a long healthy happy life. I”m going to be raising my glass to you all on Saturday night or maybe Sunday and saying Cheers. Peace, Love and Understanding.
Bye, Jim.
Stephen Lynch was single payer and is a No
He was a yes in Nov so this has to hurt the count.
It looks like “pro-life” move on the way to a Senate challenge of Senator Brown. I do not think he has a chance in the primary – but an interesting move.
They said they were 4 votes away from a win – guess now that is 5 votes away!
I did answer the question by saying it’s speculation, what good is it answer pure speculation?
I don’t think he will do those things and if he does do something that makes me not like him, I won’t vote for him next time. But if the opponent is Sarah Palin or Mike Pence or Joe Scarborough…….then you know what, I might vote for him. Call me a sellout, but I didn’t like living through the Bush years and really don’t want to repeat them. Do you?
Good night all, I really do love you all and wish you the best. Seriously.
As evidenced by your snears and hostility, your disingenousness is unbecoming.
Obamabot thanks you for your service.
: )
It seems to me that we are screwed whether this bill passes or not. If it fails we get nothing and if it passes we may have a national nightmare, complete with mandates. IMO
You ain’t lyin, but we’ve done what we could do.
Fair enough. But you have to understand that this health care debacle really hurts some of us in the ways that you admit fucknoclass’ hypotheticals would. That’s really what this is about. This corporate sellout is a real heart-breaker. It is forcing ugliness upon our nation, because the best route is now painfully to let the health system just break, fail, and implode – and yes, with the concomitant deaths which we all anguish over – so that maybe sanity will prevail at some point, and we actually could do the right thing with single-payer.
This bill is a torment.
It may never happen, and we now know an awful lot of things about those who claim they represent us. Good to know these things.
Yes, my friend – and it is so saddening. The late HS Thompson said decades ago, and I forget which essay, that “the fix is in.” He was probably right, but yesterday was the first day that I thought it was in concrete. And I’m a pretty cynical guy…
Yesterday sucked. But tomorrow may not, no matter how it looks. Sorry to be trite.
: )
Thanks for that. Really.
Welcome, it’s nice to be ‘around’ people who aren’t nuts…
But we will be soon. The bill is out according to the NYT – about 153 pages long. I don’t want to read it yet. Just ate.
Good grief! I can’t believe you were ever a stockbroker… surely, you must be very experienced with caucuses?
Buzzkill!! Just kidding, Twain – I know you’re one of the sane ones…
That’s why it should be health care and not insurance. It is stupid to call it insurance and try to apply a for profit business model to it.
It is a human right. Every human should receive respect and succor for his suffering. It is a responsibility of the community of man.
Those who see it as a commodity as you describe are not civilized and are just plain mean. .
Yeah.
” ..I didn’t like living through the Bush years”
there is no marked difference. That’s the problem.
Come the inevitable woodshedding the Dems are going to receive in November, think you will wonder how many of the “base” you personally convinced to stay away from the ballot box by rubbing their noses in it? How many you tipped over the edge? Do you have any idea how enjoyable that night will be for us? So what, you got a bill passed (maybe) that you don’t give two shits about outside of it being a win for your hero. You think that win will delay your rightful drubbing in November, or 2012.
We’ll have the last laugh.
I take it another of Moulitsas’ creepy little minions has shown up to harass and goad us. As obnoxious as they can be, this web site and all of us as individuals would be much better off if we just don’t take the bait with these people who show up to do what “realliberaljim” was doing tonight. I’ll follow the notion “be the change you want to see” and make a point of not responding to these figures who show up when it becomes clear who they are and what they are up to. You can too. Remember: they are just following the Chimpanzee Imperative. This means that they are pack animals who deem themselves as a group superior if they perceive themselves in the majority and declared “right” by an authority figures, and therefore they can abuse those they perceive as in the minority and so “wrong”. We don’t have to respond like angry bulls to the red cape waved by Kos’ munchkins following the Chimpanzee Imperative.
No matter what happens with this piece of crap bill by 2014 when it kicks in it will be an asterisk in history. 24 states will have referendums on their ballots to opt out of the mandate. The number will likely go up from there. The Democrats will get spanked big-time in 2010, and we will have a new president in 2012.
By the way the way health care is set up right now it is unsustainable. Within five to 10 years at most it will collapse as more and more people can’t afford it. This drives prices even higher and become self-sustaining toward collapse.you have won nothing.
Stephen Lynch strong ‘no’ on health bill despite talk with President Obama
http://bostonherald.com/business/healthcare/view.bg?articleid=1240756&srvc=business&position=3
Thanks for the response, and I apologize for sounding accusative. Not my intention. It is just that I have not been commenting here in the past five months, and I have seen the general timbre toward health care reform take a turn to the right, or hard left, as it were. So much progressive disappointment that this bill is not all that we want it to be, was a good prod for democrats succumbing to the centrist line of crap, but that is over…this is the bill we have.
It was within that context that I was puzzled by the pessimistic whip count, which I was up front about not fully understanding. I appreciate your work D-day (this is the former D-Day, right??), and will heed your judicious count herafter.
Thanks,
Styve
So true. Forcing (yet more) ugliness upon all of us. Another round, or ten.
Wow, the “real” liberals are telling us to move to a socialist country.
I follow the whip count here with great interest….why?….Because I know that, (with healthcare reform) if there’s ANY “count” that will be to the right of Fox News’ whip, we’ll find it here. Let’s face it, the majority here REALLY want to see this bill fail. With that kind of incentive, I would be very surprised to see the whip count showing 216 “ayes” until sometime AFTER the House votes.
your number 3. those 30 million are the people forced to buy insurance. And if our elected officials really think the mandate is so wonderful why do they use code saying 30 million more americans will be insured rather than saying we are mandating 30 million people buy private insurance and when they can not afford it, do you think they are going to buy it? I know a family of 4 paying $14,000 a year for insurance. Who can afford that? there is nothing to hold down costs. The testimony of the insurance CEO’s said “the reason for raising their costs 39% in CA was that the senate bill did not do enough to force people into their plans.” so they are just going to keep raising premiums with nothing to control them. Do you really think you have enough tax dollars to subsidize those CEO’s and their profits?
you call yourself a real liberal and you have not yet figured out, Obama is a Republican?
you do know that Rachel and Keith are both on the same corporate media channel that sold us on the war and profited from it? The same corporate media that gets a great deal of profit from the pharma ads. You need to turn the corporate media off. try watching Amy Goodman, if you can handle the truth.
It was AHIP & Pharma who controlled whole show last year with executive branch and Senate playing by their setup. Even though I read reports of it I was under the false impression these meetings were to convince them of the viability of public option and on how it will be good for their long-term sustainability.
This bill will destroy long term economic strength of our country while enriching a select few in the process since the productivity pot will shrink slowly. Most of the congress reps please do remember if you vote yes your grand-children too might suffer at hands of future AHIP executives misusing these mandates besides rest of your countrymen and you will be left with guilty feeling for rest of your life for this vote.
Now I waiting for Mission Accomplished Banner on this Health care reform(scam). I do not want any more reform bills from this congress and administration.
I am waiting for next elections to exercise my vote in favor of GREEN party to clear my conscience for the bad vote I made in last elections.
Hi batStaterep, hopefully the next decade around you will finish the job that you started the last time around- destroying the country.
In regards to the “people are going to die who don’t have health insurance”,
argument.
Lets pass a plan requiring everyone in the united states to spend every moment of their lives thinking/researching/practicing medicine. Surely we will save lives.
Durr Durr
You people focus on where the resources are going and not where they otherwise might have gone.
Draining money from middle class families will hinder their ambitions in life, and sap their incentive to work. It will take away the rewards of hard work and eliminate much of the possibility of them saving up to create small businesses or having a reason to strive to innovate.
Always saying that there are lives out there to be saved so we can steal to save them inevitably leads to the collapse of the entire society as failure is subsidized. But on the way to collapse there has to be increasing inefficiency and less productivity which overall means more poverty, and eventually more death.
Technology brings our standard of living up every year but it is in spite of, not because of, all attempts at destroying incentive.
You can count the lives saved now but you can’t count the lives lost to an overall lack of economic progress an innovation.
So, as before, I propose the obviously stupid bill that no doubt you all must support by your own idiotic logic or lack thereof:
Hereby all americans are required to do nothing but care for the sick/dying, study medicine, or become doctors.
I’m sure none of you can see anything wrong with that because THINK OF ALL THE LIVES SAVED!
And before someone tells me my plan is stupid and will never work…
If you are against my plan you obviously want people to die.