We’re getting to an end game here, and so the counts will come fast and furious at this point. I think that it’s good to look at the count right when the CBO numbers have been released as a good baseline for the future.
So here was the last whip count. Changes since then:
• Mike Arcuri, a lean no, has told colleagues he’s a No on the bill. He voted Yes last time. In addition, I have enough information to make John Barrow a No.
• Dan Lipinski claims that Bart Stupak has 12 members, including him, switching to No on the bill because of the abortion funding language, but I think it’s a bluff. I think there are certainly some, like Stupak, Jerry Costello (who I’m putting in the confirmed Stupak bloc), Lipinski, and Joe Donnelly, but others might be conflicted. Steve Driehaus says he’s in the bloc, but gives himself a small out. Marcy Kaptur is straight-up lying about what the abortion language in the Senate bill would do, but she’s bringing up other points as well. So it’s completely unclear.
• In fact, I’m taking Kathy Dahlkemper off the confirmed Stupak board and into the Stupak-curious bloc. The anti-reform activists ran an ad in her district that claimed the bill would threaten Americans with cancer, basically. Dahlkemper’s parents both recently died of cancer and she is indignant about that. That could be the peg that puts her to yes. People change their votes for weird reasons.
• We’re apparently going to hear Harry Teague’s decision today.
• Utah doctors are making a major push to get Jim Matheson to Yes, and have gained some free media for their efforts.
• I mentioned the immigration restrictions before. It’s going to be a very tough vote for Luis Gutierrez, but I’m still not seeing him as a No.
• This list of labor targets on the Stupak bloc is interesting, but I’m thinking they’re flying as blind as the rest of us.
• Suzanne Kosmas, a former No, sounds more and more like a Yes. She’s a key get for leadership. Baron Hill sounded like a Yes coming out of the caucus meeting, too. In fact, I’ll take him off the board.
Where does that leave us? Arcuri and Costello and Barrow are No votes. Dahlkemper goes into the undecided category. Baron Hill’s a yes. We’re at 192-208, and with leaners, 205-210. I expect those leaners to get firmed up in the next few hours.
192 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.
178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.
24 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.
6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).
12 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
7 lean Yes:
Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.
Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire.
1 lean No:
19 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur.
6 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.
8 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean.
1 lean No:
Democrats need 24 of a combination of the 12 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 19 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 24 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 11 of the last 16 uncommitted.