Lots of people are emailing me to ask about Stephen Lynch, the Massachusetts Democrat who Politico claims will flip from Yes to No on the health care bill. Lynch has not shown on on any of my previous whip counts. The Boston Herald, a conservative paper in Lynch’s district, got him to say this as well:

Even one of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s floor whips, U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch, says a proposed parliamentary move to pass health-care reform would be “disingenuous” and harm the credibility of Congress.

In a sign of how tough it’s been for Pelosi to round up votes for the massive bill, Lynch – a South Boston Democrat who supported a House reform package last year – said he’ll probably vote against a key Senate version of the legislation, unless unexpected major changes are made soon.

Lynch, who serves as one of Pelosi’s key vote counters, said he also can’t support a proposed “deem and pass” procedure that would allow Democrats to vote to strip out controversial portions of the Senate bill and then “deem” that the entire package has passed without a second, direct vote.

“It’s disingenuous,” said Lynch, who considers unfair a Senate provision to tack a surcharge on higher-end health plans. “It would really call into question the credibility of the House.”

I don’t think deem and pass is really Lynch’s problem. More to the point, he hates the excise tax, which gets a mention in that last paragraph. And even though this bill delays it until 2018, he doesn’t find it fair to potentially tax the middle class to pay for health care.

This is as close as anyone in the Democratic caucus has come in opposing the bill from the left. Very few if any other Democrats are basing their No vote on the excise tax. Labor has not only supported the bill, but has whipped for it and spent lots of money to try and get it across the line. And they’re OK with the latest changes to the excise tax. If Lynch were pressured from labor, I think he would consent.

However, don’t underestimate the lingering effects of the Scott Brown election on members of the Democratic caucus in Massachusetts. They saw first-hand how the health care bill affected their constituents. And they may be more sensitive than anyone to allowing it to go forward.

I don’t know if this is enough to make me think Lynch will vote no. But it does show the tremendous difficulties Speaker Pelosi has in getting to 216.

UPDATE: On the other hand, Betty Sutton has announced her support. And Heath Shuler pronounced himself undecided. And I may have to take Allen Boyd off the board, too. More in a bit.

UPDATE II: Lynch will meet with the President today. He really sounds serious about this.