This is the first major news of the day. Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog from the Florida panhandle, will vote for the health care bill.

U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, who voted against national health care last November, said today he will vote for the new bill when it comes to the House floor.

The Monticello Democrat said he studied the revised bill and the Congressional Budget Office report on its costs and benefits. He said “it’s not perfect” but that the package meets the four criteria he set forth in a series of 16 meetings across the 2nd Congressional District last summer.

The backstory here is that Boyd already faces a primary challenge from Al Lawson, a state Senator, and Lawson was hammering Boyd over this vote. He would have made it his entire campaign, and could have been successful.

Boyd is the first true undecided vote to flip in favor of the health care bill. That’s significant. It makes the count 197-208, and 205-211 with leaners. Democrats need more no to yes flips to evade the Stupak bloc and pass the bill without changes to the abortion language; how many is unclear. But getting Boyd is a pretty big victory for the leadership.

UPDATE: Here’s my best stab at analysis on this. If you add in all the Yes votes from last time who aren’t part of the Stupak bloc (including Carney, who probably is on the Stupak fence), you can get to 213. That would include: Carney, Foster, Kanjorski, Bean, Mollohan, Mitchell, Ortiz, Owe

The numbers…

Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (30):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
3 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
4 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
5 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
6 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
7 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
8 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
9 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
13 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
14 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
15 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
16 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
17 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
18 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
19 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
20 Space, Zack X R+7 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 195
Republican 177
TOTAL 208 3 15 8 197