Here’s the last one. We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine if all those No-Yes flippers can offset the Stupak bloc, and if enough of them can get peeled off, that’s basically what it’s come down to. But there still may be some surprises.

• Like Stephen Lynch (D-MA), who emerged from his meeting with President Obama still unconvinced of the merits of the bill, and still firm in his intention to vote No:

After emerging from a 40-minute Oval Office meeting with Obama and a White House aide, Lynch (D-South Boston) said he was not persuaded and made it official: “I am firmly a ‘no’ vote.” [...]

“The president was courteous and generous with his time,” said Lynch, noting a White House aide explained how various changes made the bill attractive. “The president asked me if there was anything he could do that I should tell him, and I told him, ‘I have been over this bill and I still wasn’t satisfied.’ ”

Apparently his offices are getting swamped today. I wouldn’t discount the role of Massachusetts in all of this, by the way, both the Scott Brown election and the fact that reform offers much less to them given their current system. But regardless, I think you have to move him to No (I had him lean No).

• John Boccieri will hold a press conference this morning, I’m hearing at around 10:40am ET, to announce his vote. He’s a lean Yes in my count, but would be another flipper, who voted No the first time around.

• This count will reflect the decisions of Betsy Markey, Bart Gordon and Travis Childers, which I reported on yesterday.

• Famed secessionist Rick Perry is getting involved in the vote by hosting a conference call with district residents of “undecided” Texas congressmen. Two of them are actually undecided – Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz – but I’m not thinking this will sway them.

• Marcy Kaptur spends a whole interview with the Toledo Blade talking about the abortion language, then says abortion “should not be the issue that predominates in any health insurance debate.” Well, thanks for helping with that, Marcy. She’s becoming incoherent.

• Bart Stupak’s a No, but if he says he’s a No he won’t get on television anymore, so he claims to be open to a deal. There may be a last-minute deal on the table where Stupak gets an annual up-or-down vote on abortion funding, but that an “if all else fails” scenario, and I think there would be too much resistance to it in the caucus.

• The Washington Post reports that Mike Arcuri and Zack Space are both “lean No” votes. Arcuri was a No in my count after a separate report yesterday; Space was undecided. Back in January, Space said he opposed any comprehensive bill. I still think he’s gettable, but will monitor.

• Allen Boyd told reporters he’s undecided and would give an answer in the morning.

• Scott Murphy seemed somewhat unenthused by the CBO analysis. “The issue of cost control goes beyond just deficit spending. To have true health care reform, we need to decrease the amount our families and small businesses spend on health care,” he said. He’s still undecided (I have him lean Yes based on prior statements, but I’m rethinking that).

• Chris Carney’s statement upon release of the bill, on the other hand, was more positive.

So if you add that all up, I have a count of 193-208, with leaners 203-211. I expect that to change rapidly today – we could know Boccieri and Boyd in a matter of minutes.

The numbers on the flip:

Definite YES:
193 Democrats, including 3 who voted No last time, in November (Dennis Kucinich, Bart Gordon, Betsy Markey).

Definite NO:
177 Republicans

Definite NO:
31 Democrats.

24 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow, Travis Childers.

7 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
Stephen Lynch, Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).

11 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

5 lean Yes:
John Tanner, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Scott Murphy.

5 undecided:
Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.

1 lean No:
Glenn Nye.

20 potential Yes-No flip votes:

5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.

5 lean Yes:
Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

9 other undecided Democrats:
Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.

3 lean No:
Marion Berry, Joseph Cao.

Democrats need 23 of a combination of the 11 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 23 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 17 uncommitted.

The numbers…

Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (30):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
3 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
4 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
5 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
6 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
7 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
8 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
9 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
13 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
14 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
15 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
16 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
17 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
18 Perriello, Tom X R+5 1
19 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
20 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
21 Space, Zack X R+7 1
22 Titus, Dina X D+2 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 193
Republican 177
TOTAL 208 3 17 9 194