A couple updates on the whip count:

• Dennis Cardoza seemed to say in the House Rules Committee that he would oppose the effort to “deem and pass” the bill with one vote:

Cardoza, a previously undecided lawmaker who’d voted to pass Democrats’ healthcare bill in November, said he would vote against the process his party plans to move forward on healthcare.

“I don’t believe it’s smart of us to pass a bill this momentous with a deemed rule,” Cardoza said in a Rules Committee markup. “I want to make the announcement in the committee right now that I don’t support that, and won’t support a rule that does it that way.”

He won’t support the rule in the Rules Committee, or on the floor? There’s a HUGE difference. You have to wonder if he would oppose the entire bill for procedural reasons, although there are other issues with Cardoza. He will have a tougher re-election race than usual this year; Mike Berryhill, part of a political family in California’s Central Valley (two of his siblings are in the state legislature) is running against him. Apparently some money for Central Valley hospitals that was in the House bill got excised in the Senate. So he could be serious, and I think you have to make him undecided now.

• Similarly, I have enough evidence to question whether Kurt Schrader is a firm yes. Schrader was one of the last members to jump on the House bill in November, and he looks to be a holdout again.

• However, Lincoln Davis, previously a firm no, has been unclear enough that you probably have to put him in the undecided category.

• I’m also keeping an eye on Jim Cooper, Loretta Sanchez and Jim Costa, but believe they will end up Yes votes. Also, Bruce Braley jumped on the Medicare reimbursement issue, but apparently that bloc has received assurances on that, and will not have it impact their vote. Ron Kind (D-WI) will hold a press conference on this particular issue at 2:30 ET, right before the Obama meeting at 2:45 ET. UPDATE: A Braley spokesman writes in to say that he has been at the forefront of the Medicare geo disparity issue for a while. I wasn’t connoting, or trying to connote, that he was a Johnny-come-lately to the issue. Just that he renewed his attention to it in recent days.

So that puts us at 202 Yes, 205 No, with 10 in the Stupak bloc and 14 undecided. Theoretically, if Pelosi picked up every single one of those 14 undecideds, she’d have exactly 216. But that would be a very surprising scenario. That’s why she’s still working with the Stupak bloc on this executive order, clarifying no public funding for abortion, which is apparently getting a blessing from the pro-choice side of the caucus.

The numbers on the flip.


 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (27):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
10 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
11 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
12 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
13 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
14 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
15 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
16 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
17 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
18 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
19 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
20 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
21 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
22 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
23 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
24 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
25 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
26 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
27 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
3 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
4 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
5 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (9):
1 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
2 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
3 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
4 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
5 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
6 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
7 Space, Zack X R+7 1
8 Cardoza, Dennia X D+4 1
9 Schrader, Kurt X D+1 1
Stupak Block (10):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
10 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 202
Republican 178
TOTAL 205 10 14 0 202