A major development: Chris Carney (D-PA) will vote yes on the health care bill. Carney was sort of part of the Stupak bloc, but wasn’t on the list of Democrats who co-sponsored Bart Stupak’s ultimately failed amendment.

Carney was present at a meeting between Speaker Pelosi and three anti-choice Democrats (Carney, Kathy Dahlkemper and Steve Driehaus). The fact that he came out of this and decided to vote Yes bodes well for the Democratic leadership.

UPDATE: Carney’s statement.

In addition, Jim Costa and Henry Cuellar decided to lend their support to the bill, but I already had them in the count as Yes votes (Cuellar actually announced yesterday, I believe).

Seeing fellow Californian Costa come home, and with Dennis Cardoza’s main complaint, the deem and pass strategy, rendered moot by the House leadership going away from that path, I think we can confidently put Cardoza down as a Yes, too. UPDATE: That’s confirmed.

UPDATE: Jerry McNerney is a confirmed list, he just went out to his list and said he would support reform.

The new count is 204 Yes, 205 No, with now 12 undecided and 10 assumed in the Stupak bloc.

The numbers:


 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (27):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
10 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
11 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
12 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
13 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
14 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
15 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
16 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
17 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
18 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
19 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
20 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
21 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
22 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
23 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
24 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
25 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
26 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
27 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
3 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
4 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
5 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (7):
1 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
2 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
3 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
4 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
5 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
6 Space, Zack X R+7 1
7 Schrader, Kurt X D+1 1
Stupak Block (10):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
10 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 204
Republican 178
TOTAL 205 10 12 0 204