Via Carla Axtman, Kurt Schrader (D-OR) will vote yes:

“In the coming days I plan to vote in favor of the healthcare bill before the U.S. House of Representatives because our nation and Oregon families cannot afford the status quo.
One of my chief concerns with healthcare reform has been its ability to lower costs for Oregon families, small businesses and our nation as a whole. While I believe there is more we can do, this bill makes real progress in bending the cost curve. It includes lower and more appropriate subsidies than earlier proposals. It rewards healthy lifestyles and encourages better healthy outcomes by including my comparative effectiveness research component.

We have also reached an agreement with Congressional leaders and the Administration to improve Medicare reimbursement rates for high quality care states like Oregon. It is time to move away from the old healthcare culture of just paying for quantity of care and instead focusing on quality of care. By focusing on quality of care we can attack the problem of overutilization that is the major driver of healthcare costs.

Schrader was a pretty necessary get for Pelosi. It doesn’t totally change the calculus: Democrats must limit the Stupak bloc to 6, and pick up 2 votes elsewhere, either from uncommitted members who voted No last time (Baird, L.Davis, Nye, Tanner) or from flipping some hard No vote.

UPDATE: Three others to watch, who I think will come around but who aren’t totally confirmed: Loretta Sanchez, Jim Cooper, and Ron Klein.

UPDATE: Cooper talking about history in the making, sounds like a Yes.

The numbers:


 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (29):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
10 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
11 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
12 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
13 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
14 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
15 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
16 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
17 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
18 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
19 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
20 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
21 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
22 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
23 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
24 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
25 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
26 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
27 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
28 Space, Zack X R+7 1
29 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (4):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
3 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
4 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (6):
1 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
2 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
3 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
4 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
5 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
Stupak Block (10):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
10 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 205
Republican 178
TOTAL 207 10 9 0 205