(see the update)

OK, so NRO has not always been right (understatement of the year), but they claim that Stupak told their sources that he’s “finished with Pelosi” and the enrollment corrections bill is dead. So I’ve taken a second look at the numbers to reflect what we know, and the challenge facing the Democratic leadership.

I’ve re-divided the whip count categories into Yes, No, Undecided, and Stupak. The thinking here is that if you haven’t decided by now, the day before the vote, you’re undecided. And the Stupak bloc should get its own category to more easily see the challenges of getting to 216.

So if you do that, you have 201 202 sure Yes votes, and 206 sure No votes (which includes all Republicans and 28 Democrats who have announced their intention to oppose). 13 12 members are still completely undecided. Four who voted No last time:

Brian Baird, Jim Matheson, Glenn Nye, John Tanner

And nine who voted Yes last time:

Melissa Bean, Chris Carney, Bill Foster, Paul Kanjorski, Solomon Ortiz, Bill Owens, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, Mike Michaud

(UPDATE: Bill Owens will vote Yes. So it’s down to 12 undecideds, from 13)

If Speaker Pelosi were to get every single one of these votes – and that’s a tall order – she would still need two members from the confirmed Stupak bloc. This confirmation comes from the names on the enrollment corrections bill from last night, and also Joe Donnelly and Jerry Costello, whose public statements leading up to the vote put them squarely in the Stupak camp. There’s some question as to whether Chris Carney belongs there as well, but his name didn’t appear on the list, and he’s wavered enough in public statements that I’ll keep him undecided. These are the Stupak 11:

Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Jerry Costello, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus, Marcy Kaptur, Dan Lipinski, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall

So if the deal is dead, Pelosi needs everyone in the first two categories and two from the Stupak bloc. If she can peel off more from the Stupak bloc, it gives her room with the undecideds. The only other option would be to try and flip one of the sure No votes, like Stephen Lynch or Mike Arcuri. Expect the two committee chairs voting No, Collin Peterson and Ike Skelton, to get a lot of attention.

Given those odds, you can see why she explored the Stupak deal. But pro-choice women apparently slapped it down so soundly, that the path of least resistance is now this agonizing trek to peel off enough votes to get to 216.

Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (28):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
26 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
27 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
28 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
3 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
4 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (4):
2 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
3 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
4 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
5 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
6 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
7 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
8 Space, Zack X R+7 1
Stupak Block (11):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Carney, Chris X S R+8 1
8 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
9 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
10 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
11 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 202
Republican 177
TOTAL 209 5 9 6 202