UPDATE: Looks like there’s a deal. That would wrap this up. Stay tuned.

Bart Stupak has scheduled his third press conference in less than a day, presumably to announce the state of play on health care and the abortion language. The first two press events were cancelled, so that’s always a possibility here.

Stupak just told reporters on Capitol Hill that there was no deal yet on an executive order, though he was working with the White House on that. In that interview Stupak says he has “pretty close to 8 members” whose vote hinges on this deal. I have nine members in my Stupak bloc, so I’m wondering who’s not a party to the deal. Actually, my guess is that Jerry Costello and Dan Lipinski aren’t party to the deal – they’re no on the bill no matter what, it seems to me.

In other developments, Jim Cooper seems to be joining the undecided party. I had been watching Cooper but expecting him to go along with the vote in the end, but a holdout at this late date has to go into undecided territory. So put him on the board and call it 208 yes, 209 no, with 5 undecideds. If you throw Lipinski and Costello onto the no side, it’s 208-211.

UPDATE: Stephen Lynch is still getting lobbied hard (Secretary of State Clinton just gave him a call), and given the closeness of the count and the precariousness of the Stupak deal, you can imagine why.


Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (31):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
5 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
6 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
7 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
8 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
9 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
10 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
11 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
12 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
13 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
14 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
15 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
16 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
17 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
18 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
19 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
20 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
21 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
22 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
23 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
24 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
25 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
26 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
27 Space, Zack X R+7 1
28 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
29 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
30 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
31 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (1):
1 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (4):
1 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
2 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
3 Sanchez, Loretta X D+5 1
4 Cooper, Jim X D+3 1
Stupak Block (9):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 208
Republican 178
TOTAL 209 9 5 0 208