UPDATE: CNN says Stupak’s not quite a Yes yet. I’ll throw the numbers at the bottom including what we know about Brian Baird. Here’s the press release on that.

Reuters is now confirming that Bart Stupak will vote for the health care bill. That’s the end of the line here. Stupak will bring along a number of his bloc with him, perhaps all of it. If everyone in my Stupak bloc votes for the bill, that would put Democrats at 215. And Brian Baird’s office just confirmed that he’s voting for the bill. That’s 216. And even if a couple more-Stupak-than-Stupak dead-enders hold out, some soft undecideds like Foster and Michaud are likely to come around.

Health care reform will pass today. The Senate bill will become law of the land, and the reconciliation sidecar will go to the Senate, where Democrats have assurances that they can muster 50 votes to pass. Mitch McConnell claims the Republicans will gum up the works during the reconciliation deliberations, including making dozens of amendments and also using points of order to try and get the Parliamentarian to knock out pieces of the bill. If they succeed in deleting any one line, then the reconciliation bill would have to go back to the House for one final vote and passage.

We still don’t know what Stupak got from his vote, whether an executive order or other assurances. This has been a clarifying experience in terms of the anti-choice movement within the Democratic Party. The pro-choice movement has a lot of soul-searching to do, and must steel themselves for future fights.


Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (29):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
5 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
6 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
7 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
8 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
9 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
10 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
11 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
12 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
13 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
14 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
15 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
16 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
17 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
18 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
19 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
20 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
21 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
22 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
23 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
24 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
25 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
26 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
27 Space, Zack X R+7 1
28 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
29 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (3):
1 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
2 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
3 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (5):
1 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
2 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
3 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
4 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
5 Sanchez, Loretta X D+5 1
Stupak Block (9):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 207
Republican 178
TOTAL 207 9 8 0 207