I’m trying to get confirmation on this, but apparently Marcy Kaptur has flipped and will vote Yes, irrespective of the White House deal on an executive order about the abortion language. Kaptur was among the lowest hanging fruit of the Stupak bloc.

However, keep in mind that Stupak said there were 8 members in the room negotiating the deal with the White House today. I had 10 in my Stupak bloc. So Kaptur and one other member (Dahlkemper?) were probably separate from that. This helps the Democratic leadership, but was probably more expected than assumed.

This makes the count 205-209, with Sanchez and Boucher as No’s but being watched.

UPDATE: Solomon Ortiz, who I had as a holdout, will vote Yes. 206-209.

UPDATE II: The Kaptur yes is based on her own words to a local news station. So this is confirmed. Numbers below in a sec:

UPDATE III: Gerg Sargent has the quotes from Kaptur.


 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Stupak Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
Aye Nay
Definite No (31):
1 Adler, John X R+1 1
2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
9 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
10 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
11 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
12 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
13 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
14 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
15 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
16 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
17 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
18 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
19 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
20 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
21 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
22 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
23 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
24 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
25 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
26 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
27 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
28 Space, Zack X R+7 1
29 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
30 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
31 Sanchez, Loretta X D+5 1
Potential No-Yes Flips (3):
1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
2 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
3 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
Potential Yes-No Flips (4):
1 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
2 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
3 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
4 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
Stupak Block (9):
1 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
2 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
3 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
4 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
5 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
6 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
7 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
8 Mollohan, Alan X S R+9 1
9 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
Committed Votes
Democratic 206
Republican 178
TOTAL 209 9 7 0 206