Hawaii’s special election format presents unique challenges for Democrats. All candidates compete in a single election, with the winner taking the seat regardless of percentages. There are two high-profile Democrats in the race and one Republican, which raises the possibility of the Democrats splitting the vote and delivering the race to Charles Djou, the Republican.
This has led Democratic operatives to want to push one of the Democrats out and pave the way for a victory. However, they appear to have chosen the moderate LieberDem who is hated by the state political establishment.
Dem strategists have largely determined that ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) is the strongest candidate to run for the open House seat vacated by ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D). Case polls better than state Senate Pres. Colleen Hanabusa (D), sources say, and he doesn’t carry the same baggage she has.
But Case has baggage of his own, especially among Dem voters. During his 2 terms in Congress, Case had a largely centrist record. He said he would have voted to give George W. Bush the option to go into Iraq, a position at odds with Abercrombie and the state’s 2 Dem senators. He voted for the PATRIOT Act and voiced support for the prison at Guantanamo Bay.
The DCCC is clearly lending support to Case, finding top-level advertising and polling strategists for him, on the grounds that Hanabusa… is a political insider. I’m not going to untangle that pretzel logic, but Reid Wilson in his story sees it as a trade-off between Case’s centrism and the political pragmatism that sees him as the only viable option. I don’t understand that a bit. Case has a slightly higher name ID than Hanabusa, but she has the support of both political legends in the state, the two Senators, as well as most labor unions, and she leads in fundraising. What’s more, the district is not moderate or centrist in any respect.
So far, the DCCC has only released one ad in the race, which you see above. It attacks Djou as a Norquistian anti-taxer. But the signs of the D-Trip’s sympathies are unmistakable, and I don’t see Hanabusa – or her legion of backers – acquiescing to the national Democrats’ strategy.
A few months ago, it was put to me that Case and Djou would split the center-right vote, with Hanabusa winning the majority. That could still happen – I wouldn’t be at all surprised with the DCCC misreading the electorate. But their bigfooting into races should definitely cause some worry (especially because they’d have a free shot to pick off Djou in November, if he manages a fluke victory).




38 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
Rahm has always forced his candidates on us even if they were less popular with voters by placing local Party favorites in the race.
But pleasing the local political machine takes a back seat to knocking out a Progressive the local machine wants?
Two can play this game Rahm.
Evidently Van Hollen has his “run to the right!” campaign on. Blergh.
Hanabusa needs a moneybomb.
With deep respect: Why is anyone still listening to and/or believing anything Democrats say, regardless if they’re “progressive” or not? Haven’t we been down this road before? (And before? And before? And bef…)
You would have us vote Republican? Or for the Magical Unicorn party?
We really need a runoff system so that the “winner” is the person favored by voters and not just beneficiary of a split vote. Instant runoff voting, along with public campaign financing, would do wonders for democracy.
http://www.instantrunoff.com/
Of course, those polls are not cited, the supposed “baggage” is left undefined, and the source spouting this misinformation is anonymous.
Is Lanny Davis working for Case? :)
I agree that Hanabusa needs a moneybomb.
oh how nice it would be.
If this is a computer voting system throw it out. Paper Paper Paper ballots only, that have to be monitored to protect our votes from the Corporate overlords election thieves. The corporation SAIC has been secretly attempting to create a monopoly in the crooked computer voting business. NO COMPUTER VOTING EVER.
We should get more money to Hanabusa, and I think perhaps we should start some kind of “phone bomb”/mass calling to the DCCC to let them know we do not want their fingers on the scales for Case. We should get a couple of progressive HI blogs to support both actions, we need some of the calls to be coming from HI.
IRV allows voters to RANK their preferences, rather than just choosing one candidate. So if your first choice can’t win, your vote goes to the second choice automatically. This would put an end to the dreadful two party system, where voters have to choose between the lesser of corporate-owned evils or else “waste” their vote.
Oh, but I’ve been having minor fun sending searing emails to my D reps & sens over voting for HCR. It seems to be the only game in town.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has obviously “pushed” for the moderate – neo-liberal candidates because they will vote for the corporate interests first. President Obama is NOT a liberal or progressive, he is a corporate “new way” Democrat. This is exactly the type of candidate he wants in Congress. Expect to see this even more in the future as the public is told “it’s because we are a center – right country” (just remember who keeps saying it the most – the corporate run media).
To the best of my knowledge, there’s no such animal.
Djou’s already been running a fair number of ads, never once mentioning, of course, that he’s a Republican.
The horrid Republican governor is quite unpopular [closing down schools EVERY Friday to save money], so I’m sure he doesn’t want it disclosed that he’s a member of that party. His ads just tout the usual Republican talking points.
If it is at all possible, yes.
Short answer to your title question: if they can, yes they will.
I call ‘em neolibralists. With all the baggage the the suffix ‘ists’ embodies.
Of course, Rahm could be successful at getting Rs instead. Seems that’s their plan.
I agree. But, Rahm Emanuel is just a “scapegoat” for the President. They both want more corporate moderate neo-liberal Democrats or corporate Republicans in Congress. Then they can once again use the Clinton “triangulation” method again.
No one here is fooled into thinking that Rahm is off on his own. He’s just O’s cat’s paw, but he is the enforcer & therefore deserves to be singled out.
Thanks for reminding me again why I’m no longer a Democrat.
I bet Case’s ex-staff went to work at the DCCC and influenced them to back Ed.
Also, Ed has lotsa money and his brother, Steve (AOL founder) has lots more.
How about a moneybomb for Colleen?
Anyone still think liberals and progressives are welcome in the Democratic Party?
The ZOMG PALIN!!1 card is so played out. You keep your pro-wrestling politics and I’ll vote for any decent Green or independent on the ballot.
Neither major party is fit to receive a single leftist’s vote. So, don’t.
I’ll have what you’re having. And I’m not even a leftist — more leftish. If the Democrats were still a liberal party, rather than keeping a few token liberals around for show, I’d still be one.
Here’s a decent one, MM…! Volcanic Ash is pretty good too…! ;-)
The Hawaii dems are left with Sophies choice.
The R is unacceptable. No Question there.
But also remember this election is only for the remaining 9 months until the new Congress is sworn in as a result of the general election in Nov. ( 5 months)
Case is an R in all but name. Look at his record when he was in Congress. Part of the reason he ran for Senate was that the D’s were looking like the whole party would support a primary challenge to him. In fact I am surprised he hasn’t ran the whole ” the party has left me…” declared as an R and run for Gov. Except for the fact that Lingle has been a disaster and Neil Abercrombie would clean his clock.
Hanabusa is no prize either. Look at her during hearings, Unprepared, headline seeking and insulting towards witness’s that were not opposed to her.
Generally her reputation among those who have had to interact with her on a professional level is not good and Hawaii being a small tight knit state this is widely known.
If there were a capable D running this race would not be in question even with the extra D candinates.
It is sad that Mufi Hannaman ( D Mayor of Honolulu) is not running for Congress instead of primaring for Gov. Don’t care much for him either but he is politically more acceptable to the D’s then Case or Hanabusa. If he loses the primary for Gov. look for him to run in the general for this Congressional seat in the general later this year.
Hannaman is bit to much like his predessor Jeremy Harris who used questionable, and illegal, fundraising tactics to steamroll his way to the Democratic nomination and then was disqualified when his fundraising became a scandal. That is what led to 8 years of a R in the Gov. house ( Lingle)
A little short and abbreviated inside Hawaii politics that hopefully may explain the conundrum of the Hawaii D’s this year.
If not, it won’t be for lack of trying. This seems to be their ‘strategy’ nationwide.
The election will be 100% by mail. Thus, paper.
‘Will Washington Dems Screw Up a Special Election in Hawaii?’
No. They will not. Washington Dems will get what they want: either a Republican or a Republian.
Those will be our choices. Hey, it’s a free country, isn’t it? I fear the awful truth is that there is just no point in being Democrat anymore. As a former loyal foot soldier I never thought I would say that. But I just can’t fool myself any longer.
I agree with almost all of your observations about the characters running (ruining) Hawaii, especially re Case and Hanabusa. I would NOT send a moneybomb to Hanabusa. She doesn’t deserve it. Let the local Big Boys bail her out. Save your money for any genuine progressives you might find on the mainland. (NB, all current members of Progressive Caucus should be automatically disqualified for their disgraceful conduct on “HCR”.)
Mufi Hannemann is in a tight (but not yet formally declared) race for Governor against Neil Abercrombie, whose resignation has caused this special election. The primary for governor, and the primary for the full 2-year house term, are both set for the same time in September. Thus, if Mufi loses to Abercrombie for governor, he will not have a chance to run for the full house term.
[There's a possibility that the primary date might be moved to August, but the move would apply to both contests. The state won't have two primaries. As it is, Abercrombie is taking major heat for causing a special election to take place, costing the state somewhere on the order of $1 million.]
BTW, to another poster: Steve Case of Time-AOL fame is Ed’s cousin, not brother.
Will the Dems screw this up? Well, they screwed up Massachusetts, didn’t they? They lost Kennedy’s seat for frickin sake.
Rahm wants to one up himself by losing his boss’s home state. Rahm loves to alienate progressives, even if it means helping the Republicans, and so does his boss.
So can the Dems lose this special election? Yes, they can!
Sorry my oversight but you are right about the primary’s. Hopefully Mufi will reconsider and change his target. If I remember the law that was passed to stop Frank for running for Gov i don’t think he would have to resign the Mayors position.
Hannaman’s fundraising while not officially running for Gov. ( because he would have to resigh from his post as Mayor – a legacy from those who feared Fasi) is working a similar narrow edge that Jeremy Harris was working when he fell over the line and gave the state House to Lingle. Coupled with the Bishop Estate Scandal ( Broken Trust)
Though I still begrudge Niel’s vote on the Convention Center ( ancient Hawaiian Pol. History) when he was on the City Council, even as I understood why he did it, he still stands head and shoulders above his competitors.
With Danny Inouye aging and Akaka being a blank slate when Neil wins the Governors house after humbling Mufi ( if humility is possible for him), he will have an oppurtunity to rebuild and reinvigorate the state D’s.
And the next question should be “what poll? Show it to me.” And if nobody will, they’re just talking trash and nobody should print it.
Thanks, CT.
I don’t think it’s going to be too long until one or both of Hawaii’s Senate seats are up. Akaka, from what I hear, is not in good health, and Inouye is just OLD. [Actually, I think they're both the same age -- 84.]
One of the outrageous things about Hawaii’s Democrats is that they have no bench. Akaka and Inouye have been in office forever, and no one has ever been about to successfully challenge them.
So I look at all this with an eye to what will happen in the next few years if/when Inouye & Akaka die or retire.
CT, correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t there bad blood towards Case because he primaried Akaka, or at least threatened to?
I never realized Cast was Steve Case’s brother. Knew Steve Case was from Hawaii, but not that connection. Of course that means they have more money than God. But as far as I can tell, it’s the usual “rich guys like the corporate Dem, working folks like the other.” We’ve seen this movie before.
alan — I see your correction above about the relationship between the Cases. Thanks.
The Case’s, like Obama, are Punahou Grads.
Your right about the bench in Hawaii. Inouye is the last of the 442nd men who changed Hawaiian politics.
I beleive that when positions start to open up that a resevoir of talent will appear but it will skip at least 2 generations if not 3.
The Fify’s generation will be out of the running, the boomers will be at best borderline the X’ers were to uninterested in politics so we may get our first Milliunum politic leader from Hawaii.
There is ONE poll that I am aware of, from January that showed Case marginally ahead of Hanabusa. But that was before the various candidates announced and before Hanabusa gained the not-unexpected endorsements of Inouye and Akaka and two BIG public employee unions – ASCFME and the teachers’ union, plus several other unions as well.
Just like the DCCC to cherry-pick the polls that they like.
I couldn’t agree more. I’m not “moneybombing” (I hate that word) anyone who has a D or an R after his or her name. I’ll give money after they vote the right way on issues. When one or the other wins the primary, the corporations will step in and bribe them with all the money they could possibly need.
Right now, I’m saving my money for groups like the ACLU.
Re: Will Dems Screw Up Hawaii Special Election?
Yes.