Research 2000 finds the trend line in favor of Bill Halter in the Arkansas Senate race, with Halter gaining to within a single-digit deficit with Blanche Lincoln, 43-35. An earlier poll by the same outfit had Lincoln in front by 13 points, 44-31. Importantly, Lincoln stands well below the 50% threshold needed to move on to the general election. If no candidate gets 50% in the primary, the race moves to a runoff between the top two candidates. DC Morrison, a Zell Miller-like conservative, is in the primary and will probably take enough votes to force a runoff.

Markos Moulitsas, whose Daily Kos commissioned the poll, notes that Halter still polls better than Lincoln in all general election matchups against the Republican candidates, including Rep. John Boozman, the likely favorite. Halter trails Boozman 47-42, while Lincoln trails 52-42.

The changes from two weeks ago were minor, but all of them trended the same way: Lincoln lost ground on every single Republican, Halter gained ground on ever single Republican, and even leads two of them. As a result, Halter is a significantly better general election candidate for the Democrats. In fact, Halter is statistically tied with every Republican, as even the Boozman matchup is within the margin of error.

The likely GOP nominee is still Rep. Boozman, and Halter has already cut into that deficit; while Lincoln trails Boozman by 10, with zero chance to make up that deficit as a well-known and disliked incumbent, Halter still has plenty of room to make up ground. And against the 10-year DC incumbent congressman, Halter can run a populist, anti-DC campaign, the kind that will be getting the most traction this November.

Halter’s favorability ratings are the best in the field. His campaign touted the poll to supporters and the press.

Lincoln’s Ag Committee bill on derivatives hits the spotlight just as her primary campaign heats up. So far, the implications of that has been to move the bill to the left. But we shall see the outcome of that approach on the Senate floor. And this keeps her away from campaigning in Arkansas in what is becoming a tight primary.