Markos released a poll showing Bill Halter in excellent position in Arkansas. He leads Blanche Lincoln in their June 8 runoff 47-44.
Lincoln seems stuck in the mid 40s, as she has for weeks. Halter scooped up all the undecideds during the first round primary, and continues that trend in the runoff period. All the negative ads from all sides continue to do little to dent both candidates’ favorability ratings.
There is a huge gender gap, with Halter winning women 51-39, while Lincoln wins men 49-43. African Americans continue to poll strongly for Halter, and he wins this key demographic 58-28. Lincoln has a slight edge among white voters, 47-45.
Lincoln has two problems – she needs to actually attract more Democratic voters, which she has appeared unable to do thus far, and she needs to have motivated supporters turn out for her again, which defies the logic of where the motivated voters are in this primary. If numbers like these persist, I’d guess Lincoln may change her tune on holding another debate. Or maybe she won’t, since Halter destroyed her in the last one.
As for the general election, the R2K/Daily Kos poll shows a better general election outlook for Halter than Lincoln against John Boozman, though neither look rosy. Boozman, the Republican House member, leads Lincoln 58-38, but leads Halter 53-42. Lincoln’s negatives among the full electorate at quite high (37/58), suggesting she has no shot at re-election. Halter represents at least a small chance, especially if he gets a boost from winning the primary.
UPDATE: Halter has outraised Lincoln in the weeks leading up to the runoff, too. His campaign reports $777,000 raised between April 29-May 19, from 10,000 contributors (average contribution: $37). Nearly half of Lincoln’s $552,000 in that period came from PACs.