We know that the US-Mexico border where the President just sent 1,200 National Guard troops has actually experienced a drop in crime over the last several years. We know that the stories of rampant lawlessness due to undocumented immigration are overblown and often flat wrong. What we did not know until a recent report from the University of Colorado is that cities with higher levels of immigration are actually safer places to live.
A new study by sociologist Tim Wadsworth of the University of Colorado at Boulder carefully evaluates the various factors behind the statistics that show a massive drop in crime during the 1990s at a time when immigration rose dramatically. In a peer-reviewed paper appearing in the June 2010 issue of Social Science Quarterly, Wadsworth argues not only that “cities with the largest increases in immigration between 1990 and 2000 experienced the largest decreases in homicide and robbery,” which we knew, but that after considering all the other explanations, rising immigration “was partially responsible.”
To deny that reality and ignore its implications is likely to make life more dangerous all over America, diverting resources away from the fight against violent crime and breaking down the hard-won trust between cops and the communities where they work. Several police chiefs tried to make exactly this point Wednesday on a visit to Washington to talk about the Arizona law, due to take effect in July, and the bad precedent it sets. “This is not a law that increases public safety. This is a bill that makes it much harder for us to do our jobs,” said Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck. “Crime will go up if this becomes law in Arizona or in any other state.”
Common sense rests on the side of law enforcement on this one. Forcing immigrations, even legal ones, into the shadows out of fear of being hassled or deported necessarily reduces tools for law enforcement in carrying out their activities. Aside from the man-hours taken away from preventing violent crimes by checking immigration status, it puts a barrier up between an entire class of citizens and law enforcement. That’s just terrible public policy.
Undocumented immigrants, according to FBI crime statistics, are much more likely to be victims of violent crime than perpetrators. And the incidence of crimes in, for example, Arizona, over the last two years, when a radical crime wave was supposed to be hitting the border, has declined. Declined.
Christopher Dickey concludes:
So, yes, there are pretty compelling data to support the argument that immigrants as such—even presumably “illegal” immigrants—do not make cities more dangerous to live in. But what mechanism about such immigration makes cities safer? Robert J. Sampson, head of the sociology department at Harvard, has suggested that, among other things, immigrants move into neighborhoods abandoned by locals and help prevent them from turning into urban wastelands. They often have tighter family structures and mutual support networks, all of which actually serve to stabilize urban environments. As Sampson told me back in 2007, “If you want to be safe, move to an immigrant city.” [...]
Wadsworth’s research and the recent FBI data reinforce the judgment that the vast majority of immigrants make our cities safer, especially when police know how to work with them, not against them. To blame all immigrants for the crimes committed by a few, and give the cops the job of chasing them for immigration offenses instead of focusing resources on catching the real bad guys, is simply nuts.
Indeed.




34 Comments

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I have to chuckle when I hear the conservative columnists start their ‘newer’ rant and called “immigration-reform lite”.
Of course, there is much contention when immigration reform crops up, and especially when one finds hundreds of thousands of people out marching in the streets. Consequently, conservatives hide under their desks knowning full well that conservatives don’t any political issues that have the emotional impact that brings their acolytes out into the street in protest of Obama’s policies.
Moreover, America’s new cultural war is not about gays and abortion but about diplomats and enemy combatants. Thusly, how will the Republicans define brown people born here in the USA as “enemy combatants”?
And it’s for this reason that Chicanos are voicing their concerns in the direction that citizens born here in the United States and repatriated to the nations of origin of their parents, is just another starting place to raise the flag on America’s Moral Mountain. And as such, the Right cannot bring itself to take the first step in the direction of the Moral Mountain.
Consequently, establishing a substantive immigration reform regimen should be an “easy do” for Democrats. And if Obama cannot establish a ‘discipline program’ for wayward Democrats, he will lose in 2012.
Jaango
Without a cross-lagged study, it’s just as likely that immigrants choose cities with less crime. Haven’t read the article, tho’, so maybe it has multiple measures over time.
Facts are, and have never been, a bar to upholding the idiocy of the pols or the immediacy of their wishes.
Logic much? First of all I question the study, as someone who has lived in high immigration neighborhoods there is plenty of gang and drug related violence especially if the jobs turn scarce. The 90s were low crime, people had jobs.
Secondly when first arriving, Immigrants first go to places with jobs.
A more apt correlation is when people have jobs they don’t have time or need for as much crime.
Even then it needs a real scientific study.
This one sounds completely cherry picked. I’m a liberal and I don’t want to see sloppy logic and suspect studies in support of my point of view. Leave fox news like studies to the conservatives.
Typo? Forcing immigrations, even legal ones,
Do you mean immigrants?
The other issue is that when and if large numbers of Mexicans are forced out of our neighborhoods, the houses empty out and the businesses, leaving lots of room for vandalism, property destruction and all the attendant problems of abandoned areas. The tax base shrinks significantly, and we lose cultural diversity.
All of this seems simple to understand. What do we gain when we engage in the politics of persecution?
Immigrants go where the work is but if they were causing crimes why would they bother to go where the work is?
I have nothing against the immigrants personally, but were a bit low on jobs these days can we really be allowing a flood of illegal immigrants to further dilute a flooded job market? I have carpenter and mason friends that can’t find work because all the companies hire illegals @ half the going rate. Some are thinking of dime-ing these companies out to Homeland Security.
Hispanic’s population in a state is compared to the population of other groups in the state. Compared to those populations we go to prison less.
Does anyone want to argue state population numbers and the numbers of different groups going to prison?
Maybe we should factor in class and money Immigrant Hispanics unlike say Jon McCain’s wife can’t avoid prison when they get busted for forging Tylenol 3 drug prescriptions.
When you consider drug prescriptions can be renewed the total amount of pills she took suggests more than personal use it suggests she was dealing enough to get my entire high school high.
But of course her crimes and others like hers are not added in the total because she never went to prison.
Yet Jon McCain thinks we are causing crimes!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/11/AR2008091103928_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008091103947&s_pos=
Remove us as workers replace us with Native Americans and the crime rate will go up.
Sure go after the companies I want the evil bosses put away but if you can give the workers a 10 minute heads up. Chances are the companies have fake SS numbers if they even have them at all.
The bosses say I didn’t know we say your entire crew speaks spanish and it never occurred to you to check?
the studies that have been done show about half the undocumented immigrants using fake social security numbers and half are completely paid under the table (no taxes), which means their pay is so low that the employer is still better off not even deducting it as a taxed expense.
Yup, blue collar construction workers who have to be paid at least minimum wage can’t compete against that.
Plus all those jobs the immigrants had will follow them to Mexico unless of course we get tariffs which I am cool with.
But Mexico in order to avoid rebellion will have to give all those immigrants back their old jobs as farmers and that means Mexico brings back corn tariffs.
In other words American corn farmers will need more tax payer cash, and crops that must be picked by hand will go sky high because American workers will demand more cash to do the job.
All those Americans whose jobs are dependent on Hispanic workers they will disappear or move to Mexico.
Jim White is upstairs!
Grim Milestone in Headstones as Afghanistan War Becomes America’s Longest
I am for Immigrants to have the right to be paid the same as Americans so they don’t drive down wages.
Yes there is market supply and demand factors but they are helped by the fact that immigrants have to take what ever crappy job they can get.
The right to work legal makes it easier to find a better paying job.
Crime is still low even with the recession. I am surprised that there hasn’t been more discussion about that in general.
Thanks for covering this topic David now can we get the supposedly Liberal Media to ask Jon McCain why he lies about immigrants so much?
A U.S Senator has a Staff thats paid big bucks but they could not fact check his speech?
I say if a blogger can find the real facts in 5 minutes on google then a U.S Senator who lies about said facts did so intentionally he should be censored and his entire staff fired and banned from all government, lobbying or employment with companies that do business with the government jobs!
The same goes for Fox News they are a News organization with an FCC license and a trained news staff if they can’t get the facts right they should also be fired.
My theory every over aggressive crime prone male for the last 8 years joined the army.
How many undocumented workers do #12 and others know personally? It may be that some work at below minimum wage in sume places, but not around here. Those I know hold fake SS cards, are union members, pay Social Security and Medicare taxes and federal and state income tax, and will never see a penny of what they’ve paid into those sytems.
They can’t get driver’s licenses, so they are careful never to run a stop sign or rear-end anyone on an icy road, let alone get caught for a crime. Domestic violence is unheard of because all a wife has to do is call the police on her husband (and vice versa, I assume) and he’s sent home, to be separated from his children probably forever.
It takes 14 years to get a work permit when applying from Mexico, so that’s really not an option. Until we fix the system and make it possible for workers to come here legally, the status quo will continue.
Eli is upstairs!
The New Disasters
I think you are missing my point, which was purely one of what sort of conclusions are supported by a given set of data.
If all one has is a correlation between X (more immigrants) and Y (lower crime rates), even if it is really a partial correlation with lots of covariates, then you don’t have any evidence about the direction of causation. The most straight-forward way to get evidence on directionality of causation is a cross-lagged study. (This is undergrad methods logic.) If they don’t have multiple measures lagged over time, then one should be very cautious about inferring the direction of the relationship.
Now, you can, of course, as you have done, bring in ancillary arguments as to why one direction is more plausible than another, but that’s a very slippery slope. If you can’t come up with an equally plausible story for the opposite direction, this usually means you aren’t trying hard enough, not that the opposite direction can’t be correct.
everyone knows that more guns and less brown-skinned people makes us safer
right?
I was just at the court house for jury duty. They post all the cases pending on bulletin boards. Traffic, crime etc. I’d say the list was easily 90% Hispanic.
Maybe with traffic that indicates a police bias, I don’t know but you can get a feet for Los Angeles homicide numbers here:
http://projects.latimes.com/homicide-report/map/
Ahhh, the “dueling” crime stats. Of course, this is an old Argumentation, that doesn’t hold water.
Take, for example, one has to look at the specific crime, such as rape to see who is the victim and measure against all victims. Thus, that ‘attacker’ has to be measured against all attackers. The same could be said about domestic violence, and so forth.
However, there is an inherent bias built into the crime stat functionality, especially here in Arizona. With the ‘new’ legislation, any Undocumented Immigrant is now a ‘criminal’ because a current civil violation will ramped up to the status of ‘criminal trespass’ under the new law. This means that a civil violation is now a criminal violation of a Felony4 and which is equivalent to a misdemeanor. And of course, of infamous sheriff of the pink skivvies will be able to claim that his arrest stats have skyrocketed into the stratophere, since his prediliction is to pursue Undocumented Immigrants.
However, the more important Fact-friendly approach is to measure the negative impact against the Middle Class and the Economically Disadvantaged. Thus, white collar crime does more damange to the affected middle class than does a single Undocument Immigrant or a group Undocumented Immigrants can possibly do, even on a combined or on their best day. And of course, there is no study, to my knowledge, ever been conducted on the negative impact of white collar crime versus the criminal behavior of an Undocumented Immigrant. Now, why is that?
Jaango
No such study is needed. The FBI and academics already estimate the effect of both types of crime on non-victims (via increased insurance rates, etc). Go look it up, if you really care. Or don’t look it up and just continue to ask questions that appear to be designed to suggest some creepy motives of various people, including the Feds. I don’t really care other than finding it annoying that you didn’t bother to check whether the study you asked for already existed (in some form).
Just for sh*ts and g*ggles, let me tell you a story that @24 reminds me of.
I sat through a town-hall-like meeting in San Diego in 1992, listening for literally 15 minutes while this middle-class guy ranted at the cop on the panel about the police “wasting time” giving out speeding tickets when there are “real criminals” out there robbing houses [sic] and murdering people. When he finally shut up, everyone looked at the cop, expected some whiny defense. The cop took a sip of water and said something like this:
“the crime that is most likely to cost you money or take your life is speeding.”
It took a moment or two for that to soak in. Then the ranter did something I didn’t expect. He said: “oh.” And then: “thanks.” And the meeting ended.
I grew up in a county where all the names and faces except mine were white at the court house.
Look they made a claim we cause crime we respond with the best evidence we have that they are full of it. Now yes evidence on directionality of causation in a cross-lagged study would be great find one or ask for funding for one.
But until those explaining why come in we are left with a simple conclusion immigrants commit less crime.
The Anti Immigrant groups said we commit more crime . They are wrong, they are lying and no I really do not think they care about being wrong or lying.
They care even less to know why.
Two (final) reactions to this.
1) I, personally, agree with you. I believe what you believe.
but
2) What “they” have said has no effect on what should be said about a set of data. The strength of an argument doesn’t get better because you’re arguing with wingnuts/idiots. The strength of an argument depends only on the data. If Wadsworth even suggested that a unlagged correlation between immigration and low crime implies that immigration reduces crime, then he went way beyond what his data actually support. And, when I have my Methods professor hat on, it doesn’t matter very much whether a person said something they shouldn’t because they’re biased or poorly trained; they’re wrong either way. (Of course, I can fix the latter in one semester. No-one has yet come up with a fix for being a biased wingnut/idiot.)
Two points to make.
First, when the Rancher Krentz was killed, local law enforcement immediately blamed it on a “mexican” and soon followed by the media with their constant updates that interrupted regular programming. In contrast, the Spanish-speaking people in Douglas, Arizona spoke out and said it was a dispute among the drug growers with Krentz being an innocent victim. And that’s the “local” take which doesn’t add to academic empricism. As such, personal experience is either discounted or rejected.
Second, the white supremecists have hooked up with the drug cartels, and these ‘new’ mules, normally, do not get caught since they operate in the shadows and thusly, do their agitation through this self-financing mechanism. So, if one listens to the media outlets, it’s the ‘brown’ that makes the news when caught. Now, by any stretch of empricism, this empiricism does not exist, or is so skewed not to reflect reality but does gain traction in white America.
And finally, as to the nativists/anti-immigrationists, being Fact-friendly is non-existent. But what manifestly exists is their story-line for the “emotionalism” for what they are marketing and selling to the likeminded clones.
Consequently, we are talking ‘crime stats’ and the nativists are talking “emotionalism’ and thusly, we are talking past each other, and as evidenced by the latest two-pieces of legislation that has made recent national headlines. This legislation is premised on this “emotionalism” with the proponents on the Right, having easily dismissed any substantive facts.
Jaango
New FBI Data from 2008-2009 shows murder rates dropped 7.2% to a 45 year low.
Gun sales soared in period 2008-2009.
More guns = less crime.
Unfortunately this practice is rampant in my area right now. Again, I understand the desire of these people to work and live but they are here illegally and this makes a difference. So many Americans need work right now any work and it’s wrong for companies to exploit these people knowing where they’re from.
The cities on the border like Phoenix disagree with over 500,000 illegals. Phoenix people have had to deal with increased crime every year just try living there, you’re not safe anywhere not local library, mall, your own home.
Frankly, Sherrif Joe should deport these illegals to Colorado, San Fransisco, LA, etc. Let them deal with the crime, tax increase, the continuous marches. Reminds you of the anti-abortion marches from outside states into the little state of Vermont. Locals end up hating these people who are constantly having their marches.
sues,
I live in Arizona, so, permit me to have some fun at your expense.
There are two Arizonans in today’s America. First, is the “documented” immigrant, and are the recently arrived Americans into Arizona and whom were fleeing African Americans or what is commonly referred to as “white flight”.
In contrast, is the “undocumented” and which passess for anyone who is not white.
Consequently, if Senator Pearce and Governor Jan Brewer can find a legal justification for “designating” the “undocumented” as “enemy combatants”, obviously, the next Gitmo will be ‘designated’ as Alcatraz.
Lest we conveniently forget, the majority of the “documented” bought in to Bush and Cheney’s “propaganda pollution” and inevitably, turned the majority of white America into a society for the criminally stupid.
Now, can you imagine an America where Native Americans, African Americans, Latinos, and Economically Disadvantaged Whites are not serving in our Armed Forces. If so, we would both be of the opinion that the Wealthy, would quickly surrender their citizenship and depart for better climes. And if the rich won’t permit their sons and daughters to serve in the Armed Forces, we have an America and where “egalitarianism” no longer exists, the cheap price of camouflage paint will assuage the conflicted.
Therefore, you have lost sight of the ‘bigger picture’ in which you inadvertly rejected and cavalierly dismissed this elgalitarianism in favor of pursuing the ‘undocumented’, And that is America’s shame.
Jaango