NPR’s Fresh Air had a compelling show yesterday with New York Times science reporter Henry Fountain. He had a hand in several of their articles showing the negligence at work in building the Deepwater Horizon rig. When asked if a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling, since blocked by a district court judge in Louisiana, is enough, Fountain had an interesting response. He said that when you look at disasters from NASA over the years like the Space Shuttle Challenger or the Apollo I mission, they usually grounded themselves for a couple years to figure out what was wrong. That showed a commitment to their astronauts and to use federal dollars toward the safest possible purpose. In the world of deepwater drilling, precisely the opposite calculus is made. It’s all about doing the same job for less money, and the consequences be damned. Here’s how Fountain summed up:
“One of the things I learned is that this particular well that had the blowout wasn’t really unusual. … But one of the things is, it really goes back to our need for oil, and not just for cars but for pretty much everything — plastics, fertilizers and society,” he says. “And the problem is, is that the easy oil has basically been gotten: the oil from land, the oil from shallow offshore wells. So going forward, we’re going to have more of these wells drilled in extreme conditions. So, in a way, there’s potential for more disaster in the future, and it seems to me that if there were ever an argument for pursuing alternative energies, the argument is being made now — in a pretty hard way, but it’s being made.”
Go listen to the whole program. And in between, you can read this story from Steve LeVine. Anywhere that BP could have cut corners, they did it. BP systemically violated the industry standard practice in just about everything they did on the Deepwater Horizon rig. LeVine provides a flowchart of all the things that collectively had to go wrong to come up with an uncontrolled blowout at the scale that we see in the Gulf. There’s no way for it to happen unless it was planned – not in a malicious sense, but planned in the sense that BP would studiously take cost-cutting steps in practically every case, valuing money over safety.
As you see, the chain of events starts with many moving parts, then cascades out of control — the seals on the head of the well; the tubular casing that’s inserted into well as it’s drilled; the cement used to seal the well and keep the natural gas under control; the “mud,” a thick, complex, chemical-laced concoction used to lubricate and keep underground pressure from bursting to the surface.
Then comes a row of ORs: Do you have a failure to follow correct procedures when doubt is cast on your control of the pressure from the reservoir? If the wellhead seal fails, do fluids from below reach the actual rig 5,000 feet above the ocean floor?
Then come some ANDs. If the fluids do reach the rig, and there is a source of ignition to cause an explosion, you get the blowout and fire.
They used cheaper seals, cheaper well casing, cheaper cement, seawater instead of mud, one blind shear ram instead of two, etc., etc.
Where this becomes consequential going forward for BP is in the arguments of the other owners of the rig, who are asserting “gross negligence” on the part of the main owner to absolve themselves of liability.
Halliburton, a project contractor, says it followed instructions from the well owner, a group led by BP. Transocean, which leased the rig to BP, says it was liable only for surface spills — not those emanating from the sea bottom. Anadarko Petroleum, a venture partner, implies that it may be off the hook because BP likely engaged in “gross negligence or willful misconduct.” Schlumberger, another contractor, says it is figuring out if it is contractually insulated from liability.
“The responsibility for this event will be debated for some time, and there is a lot of confusion around where liabilities begin and end,” said Bart Nash, a spokesman for the London-based Lloyd’s marketplace, whose insurance syndicates face hundreds of millions of dollars of losses from the catastrophe.
But little of this matters in the big picture, because I cannot accept that Andarko as a majority owner would have somehow acted differently. The premium in deepwater drilling really does seem to me to be faster, cheaper, more. Safer doesn’t enter the equation.




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Mother Earth will be fine
Humans, animals, and plant life as we know it, not so much.
Id10ts abound as the Dude abides.
When can you make enough money and be happy with that amount? Is any amount of money worth more than anything else in the world?
Was reading this morning that there’s a storm working it’s way toward the Gulf and the scientists are watching it very closely. Said they might advise that rigs be evacuated.
We are seeing the malevolence of big business, especially oil, and its partner the US government at work. They consider the environment as nothing more than a nuisance political constituency, to be out maneuvered.
Personally, I think the biggest betrayal has been by the US government.
Big stupid greedy dicks do what they do and don’t pretend otherwise.
The government at least pretends to represent the welfare of the land and the people. Where is all the research and recommended plans that should have been done by the government and in place in preparation for an industrial created environmental disaster? One wonders who has the plan for a nuclear plant meltdown?
These disasters will be repeated, no matter rules and regs. If we are determined to play with the tools of ignorance we need to be prepared to deal with the consequences.
Beyond all of that this should have been declared a national disaster the day Obama stopped believing BP, assuming he has. Would that not have resolved the issue of Obama’s power to declare the moratorium?
What a bunch of incompetent amateurs!
Oh, my. A potential hurricane?
Yep.
With thanks to Yves Smith who point this out on Econned, in engineering & nature, it is inefficiencies, like redundancies, backup systems, etc., that make the systems stable, or at least recoverable from instabilities with less than catastrophic consequences. In economics, the WHOLE drive is for efficiency uber alles, which makes them inherently unstable. Of course, unstable systems aren’t efficient in the end, since the small savings from interim efficiencies are quickly offset by the huge cost of system failure.
Here’s a nice link for following hurricanes.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Sadly, a hurricane is bound to strike between now and whenever the Keystone Kops Drilling and Cleanup Unit finishes up its, ahem, work. Not a surprise but disturbing all the same.
I find Jeff Master’s blog and the models over at tropical weatherunderground very useful:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201093_model.html
I see a kind of Wizard of OZ scenario with a cyclone coming through and all the workers drawn up into the funnel, still going about their tasks: pulling in shrimpnets full of turtles and incinerating them, working the joy stick for the the ROV, pointing out the silver lining to the assembled cameras, and so on.
Excellent point. Who has the plans for the nuclear meltdown? Have they been reviewed (ACTUALLY reviewed, not rubber-stamp reviewed) by the government on the same scale as the offshore drilling plans were reviewed? (Walruses in the Gulf? Please!)
Looks to me like the lack of competence of Gov’t oversight has been assured by those who have been screaming the loudest that gov’t shouldn’t be involved in the first place. We should be asking “where else” have we been blindfolded and hobbled in our intent to verify that the dangerous activities that impact us all are being run in as safe a manner as possible?
thanks David – found Steve Levine via twitter just yesterday – most excellent.
What is interesting to me is that one can always do cost cutting, you just have to be smart about it in a way that cells in a spreadsheet can not advise.
The aviation industry has adopted an approach to error management that many hospitals are slowly adopting. I see benefits for the petroleum industry.
Interestingly, it starts out by first asserting, then getting all involved, to admit they make mistakes. That seems to be the biggest hurdle because once one admits mistakes then a process to design and engage error trapping can begin. NASA uses similar techniques in a field that has lots of potentially expensive uncertainty.
Any complex system with big potential downsides can be designed to operate that way.
From April 29:
That’s an official designation, per the article. Don’t know whether any higher designation exists, or would explicitly allow a moratorium declaration, but it really would surprise me for the administration to get tripped up by something that obvious.
Emend: Besides, it would have been mentioned in the strange ruling, or would have been the correction that was now being pursued.
I would add that a part of the formula is accepting not only will individuals make mistakes, no system is fail safe and system wide failures will occur. The consequences and repair, if possible, must be a part of the calculation and decision to proceed or abort the project.
And they have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to do this. If you worked for any Oil Company you’d be doing the same.
The comments from the rest of the industry, “Oh, we wouldn’t do…” are just CYA. Show us the proof that all in the Oil business don’t cut costs to the bone, as BP in the Gulf, Shell in the Niger Delta, and Chevron in South America show.
We know the consequences of leaving it up to private industry, especially those who are potential perpetrators.
My area is medicine and I was most concerned at the ineptitude of the government agencies in dealing with the swine flu epidemic. Fortunate the bug has so far been barely virulent and no extensive harm done. I fear it would have been quite different if th e opposite were the case.
The aviation industry is only safe if measured by passenger miles per incident, where it is safer than driving. If it’s measured by incident by takeoffs and landings, it become much less safer than driving.
Their safety is lies, damn lies and statistics. I’ve had to discuss with the flight crew why a particular DC10 flight out of Phoenix was unsafe (there was a huge leak in the cabin pressurization system), unnoticed until I pointed it out.
This is of course why essential services, in particular those that involve some risk, should not be left to the for profit market place
It’s back to effective supervision by the Government, which eventually gets back to regulatory capture and campaign financing.
The US Government is totally corrupt, as Kerry said accidentally-on-purpose to a open mike in his presidential campaign. The need for money is based on the election calendar and election expenses make it necessarily so. Those with money like it the way it is.
The hurricane season this year is projected to be 230% of normal. …sigh
That sounds like a great idea! Let’s take all the rigs out of the Gulf. /s
On problem. The evacuation will involve the deepwater horizon. BP wants 5 days warning to shut down and it will take 5 days to restart. They estimate 2wk minimum of the well gushing without recovery of oil.
That bottom row of nodes is really something or other. In particular, has it not been reported that by the time BP was ordering the removal of mud from an unbalanced column, clear indications of all four of the other conditions was present (even though the “ORs” say that not all were required for a blowout to become likely)?
We really need to know whether BP decisionmakers, even if they were really just the on-site people which I’m not sure I believe, were blinkered enough to stand anywhere along this disaster tree and fail to see by how much the costs to their firm at the end exceeded the shillings they were avoiding by ordering what they did; or whether they were dunderheaded enough not to realize that every time they tripped over the next “Or” or “And,” the ultimate disaster became more likely than it had just been. The first, at least, might respond to a regulatory (full costs) approach. The second just makes me want to throw up my hands.
They don’t want their on-site people to be too smart or think beyond the money. Just as the Republicans don’t want competent conscientious inspectors or effective regulations.
BP operates the way our government has wanted them to.
I lived in Philadelphia during the Three Mile Island meltdown in 1979. At the time, both state & federal govts were clueless. It was only by accident that the radioactive plume floated northeast over the Adirondacks (and Albany, NY) instead of over heavily populated east coast. IIRC, the NRC did not even admit that any “melt” occurred until a year later.
Nowadays, the NRC is hardly more on the ball than 30 years ago. It is the state legislature in Vermont, not the federal govt or NRC, which is threatening to delicense Vermont Yankee in 2012 because of radioactive tritium and other fission byproducts leaking into the ground water on the plant site. Vermont’s utility regulator has apparently already rejected an application to renew Vermont Yankee’s license. Is it just coincidence, or bad voodoo, that the owner of Vermont Yankee is headquartered in New Orleans?
Meanwhile, there is STILL no “permanent” storage for spent nuclear fuel rods for any nukes anywhere in the country, they are all collected in cooling pools at their respective reactors ….. Waiting …..
David, that JPG you linked to is one hell of a risk-analysis diagram. Have not seen anything similar in the two months we have been watching this movie. Would sure love to see more detailed risk evaluations like it. In particular, anything in custody of BP or Transocean or Halliburton showing similar knowledge of possible cascade of errors might be enough for criminal convictions of the corporations.
But don’t we see this all the time everywhere these days with all kinds of projects? What about that Boston Big Dig ceiling collapse disaster, where the contractor used inferior epoxy:
http://www.huliq.com/26955/bostons-big-dig-tunnel-ceiling-collapse-whose-fault
All industry everywhere seeks to skimp and cut corners. Most of building in CA during the height of the real estate boom is crap – the developers cut corners every way possible, and a lot of the construction is shoddy and already looking shabby and messy.
No one ever can make enough money, and everyone’s always looking for ways to cut corners and costs.
The issues get highlighted when there as huge as Deepwater Horizon or even the Big Dig. When there’s loss of life and/or an environmental disaster of epic proportions.
All this running around trying to duck blame is the biggest problem. In reading through some of the comments here, I feel like Tony Hayward and his fat-cat cronies need to go to a 12 Step Program. The first step: Admit I have a PROBLEM. Everyone (including our politicians) are all trying to avoid the First Step in admitting that there’s a huge giant elephant in the living room: there’s been an epic fail at the MMS regulatroy agency, along with an ethical, morals fail by BP to really ensure the safety of their operations.
I’d love to see some kind of 12 Step Program (or something!!!) that these people would go to and actually DO, but I sure won’t hold my breath. It really is the American way anymore to cut corners as much as possible and just hold your breath and hope the crummy shoddy work doesn’t blow up in your face… as it did in the Gulf. Conservatives, in particular (albeit Democratic politicians are no better), seem to see it as some of sort of necessity or badge of honor to see how much you can get away with in terms of screwing the system, cutting costs, etc. And then when caught out: run around denying any responsibility… and getting mad at trial lawyers.
ugh
And to the extent that admitting mistakes is the very very last thing a corporation facing such huge liability can do, our legal system has created a system of perverse incentives that foreclose this extremely sensible approach exactly in the instances where it could be doing the most good. Sort of a Godels Theorem for accountability.
CBS network news top story tonight was “fierce storm” that might reach the site of the oil volcano. No prediction of pathway yet. Multiple guesses at possible pathway shown in CBS graphic included only one reaching disaster site. Weather guy said zone of uncertainty was 600 miles wide at this time but didn’t show it graphically.
NHC plot of pathway of “Tropical Depression One” shows it would NOT aim at the disaster site and would NOT reach the Louisiana-Alabama coast by 8 PM next Wednesday.
The BP Regional Oil Spill Response Plan, which covers the Macondo well and all other BP deep ocean drilling in the Gulf was approved November 14, 2008. Just another parting gift from the Cheney administration. (It includes aerial and subsurface application of Corexit dispersant.)