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For a late Sunday afternoon right before I’m headed out to a concert, this seems like an excellent launching point for discussion from John Quiggin:
I’ve been too absorbed by my book projects and by Australian politics (of which more soon) to pay a lot of attention to the forthcoming US elections, but it seems to be widely projected that the Republicans could regain control of the House of Representatives. What surprises me is that no-one has drawn the obvious inference as to what will follow, namely a shutdown of the US government.
It seems obvious to me that a shutdown will happen – the Republicans of today are both more extreme and more disciplined than last time they were in a position to shut down the government, and they did it then. And they hate Obama at least as much now as they hated Clinton in 1995 (maybe not quite as much as they hated him by 2000, but they are getting there faster this time).
The 1995 shutdown ended really badly for the Republicans, because they had to endure the blame for creating it. This was early on in the Gingrich days, and maybe the right-wing noise machine wasn’t fully formed enough to deal with the blowback. Then again, the Democrats weren’t exactly well-represented on television at the time, either.
So there are two questions: will Republicans bother to try this, and who will succeed? Quiggin seems sure that they would give it a shot, and he makes some excellent points. Heck, they’re blocking unemployment benefits right now, so I don’t think anything’s beyond the pale. The only possible restraining element would be that past history. But if they see a way to pin government dysfunction on the President, they’ll go for it. I think there’s more infrastructure on the Democratic side to deal with this, but also less sympathy inside the elite media. So the outcome wouldn’t be entirely clear-cut. I could absolutely see the President accede to some crazy demand to get the House Republicans to stand down, with the teabaggers cheering them on. But it is a risk for the GOP.
What’s more likely is that Darrell Issa will drive a bunch of meaningless scandals about White House Christmas cards and the travel office and where Obama gets a haircut into endless Oversight Committee hearings, all designed to take a nick out of the President and lead to some dastardly offense suitable for impeachment.
Thoughts?
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I don’t think so. Like you said, the Gingrich revolution didn’t go so well. Republicans are trying to fire up their base with relentless obstructionism, because turnout is key this fall. After that I expect them to switch tactics and try to engineer some sort of “October Surprise” to put Obama on the defensive in 2012. But if the economy’s booming in 2012 there won’t be much Republicans can do.
If a minority Republican party can stop the Democrats from implementing thier policies then couldn’t a minority Democrat party stop the Republicans from implementing thier policies?
That would be impolite.
The Republicans won’t shut down the government. They enjoy lying, stealing, treason and murder just as much as Democrats.
GOP will stage a Senate Shut down with them just shy of the majority in both chambers. Result will be Democrats will take the full blame for a government shut down because they still hold the majorities.
Come on, of course they will try this. If there is one thing you can depend on a republican to do is continue to repeat and repeat and repeat old policies…..Tax cuts, increase the deficit, unpaid for programs (think SSC, tax cut for the rich, Medicare drugs) and deregulation. And after shutting down the government again, they will elect Palin/Gingrich, Palin will quit after 3 months so she can become the 21st century Shakespeare, and Gingrich will become president.
Many, many, independents and Tea Party activists would welcome the notion if it were to lead to entitlement reform and repealing of some, if not all of HCR. Progressives would find independent support of defunding and bringing an end to the wars as well.
Disaffected voters now feel that Washington is ‘ruled’ by a class of insider elites who do not govern in their best interests. Despite all the rhetoric about Dems fighting for Main Street over Wall Street, their actions expose the vacuity of their words. The GOP has done no better, basically opting to be the kindling for the brushfire of government expansion, runaway spending and soaring deficits that threaten individual economic freedom and subsidize failure.
The problem is the establishment. The ‘ruling class’ that seek power and enrichment for themselves and their ‘cronies.’ Until disaffected progressives, align with anti-establishment independents and Tea Party activists the ‘ruling class’ can keep the will of the people at bay.
Disaffected Republicans who were upset with Bush for his expansion of government and excessive spending were not effective at pulling Bush, and subsequently McCain away from becoming “Democrat-lite.” So is true with progressives trying to work within the system to enact policies more to their liking.
As conservative pundit John Hinderaker writes:
“There have been several occasions when the American people have voted for smaller government; most notably in 1972, 1980 and 1994. But it really doesn’t matter. You can vote for limited government, but you can’t get it; the political class won’t let you. This is not to assert the silly proposition that there is no major difference between Democrats and Republicans. The fiscal disaster that we have witnessed since the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007 proves the contrary. But still: experience shows that voting for Republicans hasn’t been enough to offset the power of the political class. . . . It remains to be seen whether the American people can finally break the grip of a political class that remains determined to run their lives and misappropriate trillions of dollars of their wealth. It will be, I think, a close-run thing. In the meantime, there is no mystery as to why most Americans do not regard the federal government as legitimate in Jeffersonian terms.”
Pushback against the ‘ruling class’, and old school progressivism, is crystallizing in the run up to November elections and the Dems and GOP establishment are anxious. Dems have more to lose because they are in the majority now, but old school tools of the GOP establishment feel the heat too.
If not to persuade, but perhaps attempt to refute, I hope you will consider reading:
http://spectator.org/archives/2010/07/16/americas-ruling-class-and-the/print
http://american.com/archive/2010/july/the-return-of-the-jeffersonian-vision-and-the-rejection-of-progressivism