With the HAMP program clearly failing, in fact beyond expectations, government officials have closed in on two strategies to react to the problems. First, they’ll try to bury the data, although Shahien Nasiripour won’t let them get away with it.
The Obama administration has revised its latest monthly report on its signature foreclosure-prevention plan, deleting a heavily-criticized performance metric used to measure whether assisted homeowners are re-defaulting on their taxpayer-financed mortgages [...]
In an otherwise bleak report on the state of the program — more homeowners have been bounced from HAMP than have received permanent relief — the re-default rate was seen as overwhelmingly positive.
But economists and Wall Street analysts weren’t impressed. In a Wednesday note to clients, Sandeep Bordia and Jasraj Vaidya of Barclays Capital wrote that the data was “misleading.” Celia Chen, an economist and specialist in housing for Moody’s Economy.com, said in an interview that the incredibly low re-default rate “just doesn’t sound right to me.”
The problem they identified had to do with how Treasury was calculating the rate. In the report, Treasury stated that a “HAMP permanent modification is canceled for nonpayment if it is more than 90 days delinquent.” To the Barclays Capital analysts, it appeared that Treasury was thus not including those homeowners with five-year modifications who were kicked out of the program. More than 8,600 homeowners have been bounced from HAMP.
The Barclays analysts said the move made the re-default rate look “too low” and “fail[s] to capture the full magnitude of re-defaults from these modifications.”
To their credit, Treasury deleted the re-default metric after it was proven false. A previous Administration might have just kept spinning the numbers. But honesty does nothing for the quality of the program, which grows worse.
The second thing that Treasury is doing, aside from re-jiggering data, is running an ad campaign:
In a move designed to encourage more at-risk borrowers to seek help with their mortgages, the U.S. Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development Wednesday announced the launch of a nationwide public advertising campaign to increase awareness about the government’s Making Home Affordable Program.
“We want to do all we can to help make sure that struggling homeowners know about these free resources for help,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement accompanying the announcement.
Sounds great! Let’s design a program that does almost nothing but gouge homeowners, increasing the amount of payments banks can glean from them without lowering their principal or putting them in a position to afford the mortgage, and then promote that program heavily.
If the program helped people in any way, an ad campaign would make sense. Instead, this helps only those banks and lenders with toxic mortgages on their books, allowing them to “extend and pretend” at the expense of the borrower.
I have an idea for improving the program – improve the program.



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Asking a lender voluntarily to reduce the value of its assets – or to cut down on engineering punitive fees, fines and charges in its unreadable loan contracts – is like what? Asking Goldman to stop working for God and work for its customers? Asking Jamie Dimon, his peers, and a thousand traders to give up their bonuses voluntarily, to take one for the team so Congress won’t legislate it? Asking Rush and Glenn to cool it a bit, because their rhetoric is leading to mayhem, when they think doing so would lower their ratings or lower their incomes ten per cent?
Puhleeze. An administration that asks for voluntary cooperation from people chosen for their predatory instincts and claims that it will get, is asking for the moon. It knows mortgage lenders, mortgage holders, trustees, brokers and agents won’t cough up.
Which means it doesn’t want or expect that cooperation. It wants to keep things the way they are and hope this will all blow over. That seems rather too well to define the Obama style of leadership.
Fixed it.
White House says, “What’s two plus two?”
Treasury says, “Well what would you like for it to be?”
Acknowledged
Um…Yup.
Seriously. There is hardly any ink/pixels spilled about OIRA/Sunstein in a legislative climate that is shrieking about regulation.
Call me crazy, but I think Sunstein is producing the equivalents to the Addington and Yoo memos as regards policy and regulation. There’s that certain smell.
And that’s when the economy is riding high, never mind in this economic environment. Fact is, the fees, fines and charges are goosing earnings, while the bullshit valuations of mortgage assets are making the balance sheets and capital positions look far better than they actually are. Sooner or later, something has gotta give. From my perspective, it makes far more sense to cram down the mortgages and take the hit up front, than to wait and watch houses, neighborhoods, cities, etc. crumble due to neglect, vandalism, etc. This ain’t exactly brain surgery.
The way this mortgage crisis has been handled has been wrong on so many levels that the mind reels. Just…Epic Fail.
Hey! David the guy on MSNBC who likes to spout how much of a progressive he is,the one that has radio show & talks about the middle class every 15 minutes…..oh yeah Ed Shultz,why not send him a link to your post & ask him how come he is not talking about this on his MSNBC show.
Think they are trying to cover the incompetence of the WH……bet ya they are.
Who do you think you are, Atrios? That ‘extend and pretend’ needs a Blue Cherub link…
This is really more of a Dylan Ratigan thing
Those fees, fines and charges, about $40 billion a year industry wide, are their profits. Renegotiating loans down from book to market – assuming in the welter of securitized assets one could identify and get the right people together to authorize it – to help out struggling family homeowners is Not.On.The.Cards. Lenders would only do it after kicking, screaming and being dragged to the table, and only after being given a legislative fait accompli, via changes in the bankruptcy code, that would give them a lot less should they fail voluntarily to renegotiate.
The administration and Congress are fond of bragging about “market” forces, but ignore the “forces” half of that phrase. Enterprises act when failure to act is more expensive than not acting. They don’t respond when a politician gives them a wink, wink, nudge, nudge request pretty please to help out. They ignore the stick that isn’t there and keep demanding more carrots. They usually get them, consumers be damned.
The housing depression will last for a decade or more. This is by design. The Fed has been working with the banks to withhold inventory so prices do not fall too fast or too far. That way the banks can manage their write-downs without slipping into insolvency. Capital impairment at the banks means no credit expansion in the near-term. The economy will continue to contract, unemployment will remain high, and deflation will push down wages and prices. Everyone will pay for the mortgage-backed securities scam that was created by the banks.
From the Wall Street Journal:
“How much should we worry about a new leg down in the housing market? If the number of foreclosed homes piling up at banks is any indication, there’s ample reason for concern.
As of March, banks had an inventory of about 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20 per cent from a year earlier, according to estimates from LPS Applied Analytics. Another 4.8 million mortgage holders were at least 60 days behind on their payments or in the foreclosure process, meaning their homes were well on their way to the inventory pile. That “shadow inventory” was up 30 per cent from a year earlier.
Based on the rate at which banks have been selling those foreclosed homes over the past few months, all that inventory, real and shadow, would take 103 months to unload. That’s nearly nine years. Of course, banks could pick up the pace of sales, but the added supply of distressed homes would weigh heavily on prices — and thus boost their losses.” (“Number of the Week: 103 Months to Clear Housing Inventory”, Mark Whitehouse Wall Street Journal)
A 9-year backlog of homes. No wonder the yield on the 10-year Treasury is under 3 per cent. The country is in a Depression.
Mike Whitney