Paul Krugman is a bit too polite with this comment, methinks:
I’m saddened but not really surprised by Robert Rubin’s declaration that we don’t need more stimulus. It has seemed to me from early on in this crisis that Rubin and his disciples wanted to believe that this world crisis was something like the 1997-98 Asian crisis, and amenable to similar solutions.
For what the Committee to Save The World did in the Asian crisis was … not much. Some emergency loans to ease liquidity problems, some declarations that they were highly confident, a bit of interest-rate cutting; and once the panic was over, things recovered pretty much on their own.
Hence the view that fiscal stimulus was just an insurance policy, that the big thing was to stop the economy’s headlong descent, and then unemployment would come down mostly of its own accord.
If he took this a step further, he would add that Rubin and company happened to be around when technology advanced to the point that the Internet boom could take flight. The circumstances around that – heck, the establishment of the Internet – have something to do with good government, but human curiosity and the usual trajectory of communications tools and networking did a lot of the heavy lifting. A Dole Administration may have allowed the telecoms to take control of the Internet from the outset, but they also might have been as blissfully unaware of the VC money pouring into the pockets of anyone with a clever name for a dot-com as everyone else, and as happy to see that create jobs as the Clinton economic team was.
I’m not saying the Internet was fated to turn out the way it did, or that it necessarily would have led to economic growth. And I’m not saying the Clinton economic team had nothing to do with the creation of 23 million jobs during its tenure (while also setting the stage for the eventual financial crisis, it must be told). But surely they faced a far less daunting time than we did at the end of 2008. I remember hearing Bill Clinton say that the new Administration “can’t do things the way we did it,” and that’s right. But that hasn’t seemed to hit home with the neoliberals who are, as we now know, basically in charge of the Obama economic team.
So we get too-small stimulus packages, even before Congress gets their hands on them. And we get this rhetorical emphasis on deficit reduction, which started at the end of 2009, actually, in leaked trial balloons about the State of the Union, and which has fueled all the deficit talk from that point forward, to the extent that even no-brainer actions like extending unemployment during a time of crisis becomes agonizing. This stems completely from a worldview that says, essentially, protect the banks, and let nature take its course. Now we have banks making record profits, but nature has been cruel to everyone without a Wall Street address. And the Robert Rubins of the world don’t have the imagination, or the desire, to think of what to do in that situation.
Nelson Schwartz actually addressed this over the weekend.
Americans have almost always taken growth for granted. Recessions kick in, financial crises erupt, yet these events have generally been thought of as the exception, a temporary departure from an otherwise steady upward progression [...]
The “new normal,” as it has come to be called on Wall Street, academia and CNBC, envisions an economy in which growth is too slow to bring down the unemployment rate, while the government is forced to intervene ever more forcefully in a struggling private sector. Stocks and bonds yield paltry returns, with better opportunities available for investors overseas.
If that sounds like the last three years, it should. Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, who run the world’s largest bond fund, Pimco, and coined the phrase in this context, think the new normal has already begun and will last at least another three to five years.
The new normal challenges the optimism that’s been at the root of American success for decades, if not centuries. And if it is here, the new normal could force Democrats and Republicans to rethink their traditional approach to unemployment and other social problems.
But I don’t see any rethinking going on yet. Robert Rubin, the intellectual godfather of mainstream Democratic Party economics, values “market confidence” over stimulus. This is magical thinking. But hey, Goldman Sachs had a good year, so I guess everything’s as if 1999 never left.





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Of course Rubin would say that! The rich are doing just fine, thank you.
Robert Rubin should be in prison.
Rethinking? That implies our pols have done some thinking.
If they are still listening to Rubin, they are following the George Custer of free markets to a massacre at the midterms.
The unemployed are in a vengeful mood and they will vote for anyone who promises change. The candidate doesn’t even have to promise jobs, just something different than the status quo.
Says everything you need to know about Obama that he surrounds himself with Wall Street whores like Rubin, Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, etc. But this is the face of today’s neoliberal Democratic Party. The New Dealers are turning in their graves.
The right is more then happy to pt. fingers @ who they’d like the people to blame and it’s the usual suspects. My guess is the low info voters ( most of them) will take the bait or just stay home this fall. In any event the Congress is likely going to become much more purple to red soon and that will spell a hard turn to the right by Obama. It will also mean the end of his one term Presidency.
Some of us saw that long before the inauguration.
As a footnote, don’t forget O’s $9 billion gift to his campaign contributor, nuke power giant Excelon.
I think Molly Ivins wrote a book about that, sumptin bout dancin with them what brung ya.
Can we get a Democrat for president in 2012?
I mean, I just thought I’d ask.
What “situation?”
The banks are making record profits.
Nature is taking its course.
/s
No.
This has been another episode of simple….
Banks may be making profits, but they still have mountains of unrealized liabilities on their books. They have crushed every effort to protect homeowners, and the impact of refusing to permit more stimulus will be to continue the losses in that sector as people are out of work for longer and longer periods.
There is nothing to drive recovery and we keep dumping money into wars.
Good morning all.
Is there a commercial real estate bubble collapse on the way this year? Early next year?
I’m OK with Bill C. saying we can’t do it like we did in the 90′s, but leads to remember why we were in that shape then and why we are not….REPUBLICANS! So now we are going to sit back and let those guys tell us what do to…I DON’T THINK SO!
We just need a Clinton to clean up after a Bush…we have the wrong Potus…this Potus is a REPUBLICAN in sheep’s clothing and that’s why its not fixed!
How many misguided and wrongheaded policies do you have to espouse before you lose all credibility in the public discourse?
Nope, a sitting president is going to get renominated.
That is the way it goes.
2012-16 is going to be bad years for us all.
I hope the Republicans can hold off the teaparty enough to run a sane candidate. But I will not vote for Obama again. The more success he has, the more others will imitate him and his back stabbing.
5,642.
Clinton was just as corporatist as Obama, he just didn’t have a recession going on, so people paid less attention.
Do keep in mind that Rubin thought it a very good idea – one good enough to push a couple million of his own money into – to go partners with at least one Bernie Madoff’s sons.
You can look it up.
Nice work as usual, David, but you buried the lede:
If FDR’s people had cared this little, they too would have been looking for work.
Clinton raised taxes on the rich. He would not have done this if he were a corporatist.
538 has a great post up on taxing millionaire folks
“In 2007, essentially the last non-recession year (although technically the recession began in December that year), there was $1,244 billion ($1.24 trillion) in taxable income reported from 390,820 filers earning $1 million or more. However, a millionaires’ tax bracket would affect marginal income only, so we have to subtract out the income below $1 million earned by these filers, which is $391 billion. That leaves a pool of $853 billion per year from which to draw taxes. If you taxed it at 3 percent, you’d bring in $26 billion per year, or $256 billion over ten years. If you taxed income above $1 million at 5 percent, you’d produce $43 billion per year, or $427 billion every ten years.
If you were interested in instituting a further tax bracket above and beyond this at say $5 million in income, you’d have a basis of $436 billion in marginal taxable income from which to draw. A 3 percent levy there would produce $13 billion per year, or $131 billion per ten years, in revenue. A 5 percent levy would raise $22 billion per year, or $218 billion per decade.
Let’s say we go with the plan of taxing marginal income above $1 million at 3 percent, and marginal income above $5 million at an additional 3 percent. That would produce a theoretical $39 billion per year.”
Hoover in the tax act of 1932 set the top rate at 63% – seems we should revisit that rate – and 63 less 35, or 28, which divided by 3 is about 9 – so the take would be 9 times the above – perhaps 3.5 trillion over 10 years – and end of deficit problem.
Lots of yammering about Rubin’s comments on “The Morning Joe Noise Machine” this morning Watching that dogshit freak show is worse than “Fox & Friends”… if that’s even possible. I can only take it in short bursts, after which I have to mute the sound and change the channel, not necessarily in that order.
Does anybody remember Obama criticizing the Clinton Admin as being too close to Wall Street during the primaries. I remember loving that speech so much. He was lying, like he was with evrything else, but still.
I’m sure NAFTA was more than enough to take away the sting of paying a few more tax dollars.
Thanks for this thread!
To put this into a stark contrast, consider this:
Neo-Liberals versus Hispanics and Native Americans?
When it comes to unemployment, Rubin’s “market forces” ideology dissipated the ‘value’ found in Jobs. And given that a lack of jobs has become a frequent occurence, expecting the Neo-liberals to “shill” for Jobs is not going to happen, but they will shill for Wall Street.
Now that the dearth of well-paid jobs are obviously unavailable, the unemployment crisis will be visiting the Hispanic and the Native American, with considerable severity. Thus, Obama’s unwillingness to even consider On-The-Job Training Contracts for those who are, or who have run out of unemployment benefits, demonstrates that Obama’s “accountability” moment has yet to arrive, and perhaps, in 2012, when these voters have an even more developed ‘considered’ value at the ballot box?
Consequently, there is very little in the way of amnesia, when the premise of “Democrats are worthless!” is always within reach and can be used justify just about anything that the Democrats, and Obama included, refuse to do to benefit the “general welfare” systemic in America.
And Pelosi calling the Democrats back to vote on a Jobs Bill that is certainly impotent, just adds more to the mountain of “disgust” among the Hispanics and Native Americans to her existing Legacy. To wit, she should know better, and said sadly on my part, the Democrats refuse to acknowledge the many successes achieved via Jobs and OJT. And with everyone enamored with the latest technology, looking back to the success of a prior generation, demonstrates for me, at least, that Pelosi, Reid, and Obama are starting to stink up the room, and for the like-mineded among us, it’s time we opened up the windows at the White House and Congress.
Now, I’m done with my rant.
Jaango
David Dayen has a new post up: The War on Public Employees
In my state (Connecticut) the banks have a picnic. The Appellate Court says “the mortgage follows the note” so a plaintiff doesn’t even have to show it has title to the mortgage. It should be a defense that the banks were paid for their toxic mortgages so it is inequitable to collect again from the homeowner. That won’t fly because the banks are so deep in the hole, paying off their toxic assets won’t do it.
It’s your last line that says it all. We can’t stop the wars and the military industrial complex. We can’t change course or slam on the brakes which means we can’t avoid the wall ahead.
Yes, thank you.
Clinton = Reagan Lite. (And for that matter, not so lite.)
Just remember that the Clintons told us that Rubin was the best SOT since Alexander Hamilton. Now that Citigroup has paid a small fine (was it 75mm) for overvaluing assets on its balance sheet without admitting any wrongdoing, Rubin would like to re-emerge but for what purpose? Rubin remains a defendant on at least one shareholders’ suit. This was the guy who was on the watch when Citgroup assets dropped from 800 billion to 200 billion. He is a member of a protected class.
That’s the unforgivable crime…. leaving unemployment unacceptably high.
Bush and Clinton both did many things which I did not a agree with but they did not leave unemployment sky high and call it normal.
Sure, both Clinton and Bush ran bubbles which kept employment up. But at the end of the day, people had jobs. Neither of those men challenged the core idea of full employment.
Obama, Summers, Geithner and Rubin, these men challenge the very idea of a full employment economy. They are of the “let people eat in the long run” mindset and must be removed if we are to maintain even a shred of humanity within our economic system.
My idea of a “new normal” would require a RICO suit resulting in a lot of these men making future contributions to the economy from behind bars. We can’t live with them but we most certainly can live without them.
I think the only way that’ll happen is if Obama goes the way of Richard Nixon.
What are 2.5 more years of neoliberal high unemployment going to do to the nation? Can the jobless even survive that long?
There was a recession going on when Clinton took office. It was dated by the NBER as starting and ending July 1990 – Mar 1991. There was a slight oil price shock among other demand factors.
NAFTA negotiations started in 1986. It was a done deal by the time Clinton put his signature on it in 1993. Clinton actually added clauses to protect American workers before he sent the final treaty to the House of Representatives. It basically forced both Canada (not a problem) and Mexico to adhere to US practices on the environment and labor. That’s how the CEC got initiated.
Thanks for the heads up on the new post
Meanwhile reading that Hoover’s response included a war on Mexicans in this country – toss the Mexicans out and folks have jobs again – does sound familiar doesn’t it? Hoover began his program under then current law as an enforcement with at least 345,839 people going to Mexico from 1930 to 1935, with 1931 as the peak year, per a 1936 dispatch from the U.S. Consulate General in Mexico City. Some say a million – others say 2 million – left, by order or voluntarily, by 1939, with Mexico not objecting, with 60% estimated to be children born in the US and therefore citizens who would be allowed to live here but only after they were adults. FDR did not stop the enforcement although he did de-emphasize it.
How much did the US dependence on foreign fossil fuels increase under the Clintons?
Ask people who choose to drive SUVS and huge trucks with huge engines that question. When consumers choose to be energy efficient, it will happen. There was a boom in drilling the Gulf of Mexico by the mid to late 1990s and then there was also the rise of the Canadian Tar sands during that period. It all goes into one market that sells the commodity and all comes to us via that market–foreign or not. I’m not sure what your point is about that anyway other than just to spout some CDS.
“huge trucks with huge engines”. I guess there are huge trucks with small engines in your imaginary world. The point is the Clintons failed to excercise any initiative to develop non-combustion engines and new battery technology. It was business as usual under the Clintons and increased dependence on foreign fossil fuels. The rise in dependence on foreign fossil fuels under the Clintons was government directed and led.