OK, the jury orientation is over, and I’m sitting in the sparkling jury assembly room with excellent working WiFi. Big ups for public services! If I’m just hanging out all day, this should proceed normally.
I wanted to hit this background meeting that Treasury had with a group of bloggers and reporters this week. That was the source of the Mike Allen nonsense, but Shahien Nasiripour has written the most extensive recording of that session, and it’s the stuff on foreclosures and HAMP, not necessarily Social Security, that interests me.
According to this retelling, Treasury defended the mortgage program they set up to prevent foreclosures, which hasn’t met any of the Administration’s initial goals, by saying that homeowners benefited from temporarily low monthly payments and some foreclosures, which were inevitable, were delayed. Here are some of the meatier parts of the brief:
The official touted the ever-growing pipeline of homes likely to enter foreclosure as a success in the administration’s fight to stem the rising tide of home foreclosures. It’s taking longer for homes to enter foreclosure, and it’s taking longer to evict homeowners once they enter foreclosure. The so-called “shadow inventory” of homes — those with severely delinquent mortgages, in foreclosure or already repossessed that have not yet been put on the market — has significantly grown since the administration took office and is estimated to range from 5 to 7 million homes. Through June, borrowers in foreclosure have been delinquent for an average of 461 days before being evicted from their homes, according to Jacksonville, Fla.-based data provider Lender Processing Services.
That’s a good thing, the official said, because it gives the market time to absorb these homes gradually — without leading to a dramatic drop in home prices. While analysts disagree — prices will decline when those homes flood the market, which many, like Mark Hanson, a housing industry analyst based in California, believe to be a virtual certainty — the official pointed to the futures market where traders are betting that home prices will remain stable through the fall of 2014.
This is literally incredible to me. The Treasury official is saying that extend and pretend – squeezing a few more payments to the banks out of borrowers before letting them succumb to the predations of their lenders – is a positive. That can only be told from the perspective of a wealthy homeowner looking at their property values. For the struggling borrower, that’s a disaster on a number of levels.
First, they’re sinking more money into their underwater homes with the hope that they can reach an affordable solution with their lender, a solution which this official implicitly admits IS NOT COMING. Second, the official is incorrect, at least according to information I’ve been told by borrowers (I should have the first of these reports next week, but other profiles are out there). When a borrower accepts a temporary modification, they are still on the hook for the higher payment if they get bounced from the program. The Treasury official thinks it’s a good thing that they had lower payments for a short period of time, but if they get denied a permanent mod, THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE for the difference between the temporary mod and the actual payment, and the bank can foreclose on them at any time for failure to pay that difference, which after several months can add up. This puts tremendous leverage on the side of the banks. To this Treasury guy, that’s a good thing.
Here’s some more:
In February 2009, President Obama vowed in front of an audience gathered at Dobson High School in Mesa, Ariz., that the administration’s signature effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program, would “enable as many as three to four million homeowners to modify the terms of their mortgages to avoid foreclosure.” The $75 billion initiative — $50 billion from the bank bailout, $25 billion from government-owned Fannie and Freddie — was designed to induce lenders, servicers and investors to modify distressed mortgages through a series of cash incentives [...]
The program has been nearly universally panned by housing consultants, Wall Street analysts, economists, and homeowner advocates. But the official was adamant that it was the best option available.
The administration knew they’d only reach a fraction of those needing help, the official claimed, and that millions of homeowners would ultimately lose their homes to foreclosures the administration chose not to prevent. Taxpayer money was on the line, and the administration couldn’t justify spending the amount of money it thought would be necessary to save those homes, the official said.
Nevertheless, HAMP remains the best option — even though it’s reaching fewer borrowers than forecast. Other programs, the official noted, would have been either too expensive or unfair. Homeowners who consciously bought more homes than they could afford shouldn’t be bailed out.
That’s just bullshit. The Administration said very specifically that they would reach 3-4 million borrowers with this program. This Treasury official is acknowledging that they lied, and that the impact was always going to be about 10% of that number. And, he says, that’s a good thing, because homeowners who bought too much home shouldn’t be rescued. What about bankers that bought too much mortgage-backed security?
He says that the program, if it tried to help more borrowers, would be too expensive. But the Special Inspector General for TARP has shown that, of the $75 billion earmarked specifically for this program, only $250 million has been spent. They haven’t even tried to make this program work at all.
As for the official’s statement that 1.2 million homeowners got a temporary modification, “what was essentially a tax cut of more than $500 a month — all without cost to the taxpayer,” again this neglects the fact that the tax cut was TEMPORARY, and the borrower would be on the hook for the whole amount in a lump sum months later if they were denied their modification. That’s, um, why it was at no cost to the taxpayer. Because it was a mirage, and the cost has not been borne by the lender or the investor. That’s a flat-out lie. Either that or a lot of lenders are lying to their customers (which is plausible too).
The Treasury official said that lowering the principal on the mortgages, or allowing bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of the mortgage, were solution that were “either too expensive or Congress wouldn’t have supported it.” As for “too expensive,” tell that to the Cleveland Fed, whose research fully supports cramdown, and notes that it ends up rebalancing the power relationship between the lender and the borrower, rather than leading to a bunch of bankruptcy judges to write down mortgages. As for “Congress wouldn’t have supported it,” that’s your fucking job to work with them, and the Administration frankly didn’t lift a finger when cramdown failed in the Senate.
The whole tone of this absolutely infuriates and disgusts me. “Hey, we gave the losers a chance, what do you want from us,” is generally the attitude. Well, we want a foreclosure aid program that isn’t set up like a predatory lending scheme, and that doesn’t give all power to the banks to decide at their discretion whether to help people. And we want the money appropriated to the program to actually be used. And we want primary mortgages to be treated like everything else in bankruptcy. And we want something, just something, that isn’t done entirely in service to the banks.
I’m glad for my blood pressure that I wasn’t at this thing.
UPDATE: Mike Konczal, from a different blogger meeting at Treasury, adds this tidbit: Treasury expects the entire $50 billion of TARP money scheduled for HAMP (the other $25B comes from Fannie and Freddie) to be spent, despite only $250 million having been spent so far. I agree with Mike: “I didn’t believe it; we will see.”




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I can see it now . . .
Judge:
And there you have it.
Outfuckingstanding.
Would sooooo love to hear O himself respond to that.
These Treasury guys are pond scum. And the fish rots from the head. I know I’m mixing metaphors, but I’m trying not to run afoul of the moderators.
It’s hard for me to put into words the level of contempt I have for this administration. I wish the very worst for them.
I don’t think you sound very bipartisan. Work on it.
Every program that Treasury has come up with on housing has been small and unhelpful to homeowners. Their only purpose has ever been to support home prices so that bank balance sheets look better.
I am relieved for your BP David Dayen – and appreciate your continued coverage.
The banksters’ rationale: We have this outstanding loan. The borrowers want the payments to go down by X percent. We get a little sugar from the Feds if we let this happen. That’s Option 1.
Or, Option 2, we can let these people dig themselves a massive hole, have them keep paying money on an underwater property that’ll take years if not decades to recover in booked value, then BOOM, foreclose on the whole mess, rack up a huge pile of fees which we can extract in bankruptcy court and drain these people dry — then end up in addition with a massive immediate tax write-off in place of (by comparison) a tiny long-term revenue stream, AND a property which we own outright and can immediately flip back onto the market for whatever it’s worth now.
There’s not a financier, banker, or investor who, lacking a soul as many of them do, would not immediately jump at Option #2. Especially since what they all want isn’t long-term investments, but a big pile of cash they can use right now to go gamble on the stocks and commodities markets.
I keep saying that programs to help people are measured in the millions. Aid to Corporations is measured in billions.
To Banks, in the tens of billions (or worse).
Obama has continued to distribute peanuts to the people and make a big deal about how he’s doing something (either personally or through his people).
And we hear — why aren’t people more satisfied with O’s achievements???
This is literally incredible to me. The Treasury official is saying that extend and pretend – squeezing a few more payments to the banks out of borrowers before letting them succumb to the predations of their lenders – is a positive.
It is for them, its for the banks. Helps them get more money and plan better. They dont give a crap which ant owns the debt.
Here Here!! But we know it will neveah happen.. The f***in rich corporatist are in charge and peasants mean nothing to them except a source of money to be ripped from our grasp! They Know they can and Will get away with it….
sorry state of affairs we are all in…we be fucked fucked I say FUCKED!
Thank you, David, for your report.
Meanwhile, from “Yet Another Judge Clues In to Foreclosure Fraud” by Cynthia Kouril:
[..]
This “failed to establish the right to payments” is really getting my attention …
David
#1 Meredith Whiney expects home prices to fall by 10 percent between now and January 1st.
#2 The latest information I have on foreclosures for 2010 is that it will total over 3.8 million.
#3 Existing home sales are plunging after the $8,000 tax credit disappeared. July existing home sales are expected to drop in the neighborhood of 20 percent when they are released on tuesday.
#4 In Phoenix existing home sale prices have seen a 13 percent drop since the tax credit disappeared.
#5 Baby boomers and others(35 to 55) are reaching into their retirement funds to fund everyday expenses.
#6 Baby boomers peak earning year was in 2005-2006. For the next 30 years they will sell their houses at a rate of one San Francisco a year to fund their retirement.
#7 When George Bush announced the Ownership Society on May 17, 2002 he did it with the knowledge that the demographics, fraud and MERs system were destined to create a disaster. That was the idea!
#8 HAMP was a fraud from day one.
#9 I left the democratic party the day John Kerry rolled over for fellow bonesman George Bush.
#10 I cursed the democratic party the day Nancy Pelosi refused to consider impeaching George W. Bush.
#11 I refuse to vote.
I would love to know the name of this “Treasury Official”.
#12 Don’t complain about the results you get.
FIFY
Banks are taking their sweet time about foreclosing, too: they let the
victimforeclosed homeowner stay in the house, which saves the bank money because they don’t need to hire a caretaker to keep it from being vanadalized (and to keep it looking nice outside), and if they can wait longer, well, the market might turn around and they’ll get more money for the house.I was lurking on Blue Texan’s site, and read a thread on Harry Reid where a couple of Obots where spouting the same lame bullshit that we have to support the “lesser of two evils” and “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”. What Obama and Reid and the other weak sisters in the Democratic Party don’t get is that they were elected and given majorities in both Houses of Congress to effect real change – not this bullshit lip service as evidenced by HAMP, or watered down Fin-Reg, or corporate friendly HCR. What they also don’t get is that it wouldn’t matter so much to us if they got a new bill signed unto law or not: what matters is that they actually fight for the values they claim to believe in. If they tried for real reform and failed, I could support that and I would have their back. I think most of us here would. Instead they make cosmetic changes that don’t address the problems, won’t help anyone who needs it, and like HAMP and HCR, will actually make things worse in the long run. All the while pretending in their great Kabuki drama that they did everything they could to get what we wanted and why can’t we be more grateful and behave like good little children. Fuck them, and fuck anyone who still believes this lesser of two evils gibberish. It’s way past time for Democrats to start acting like Democrats- and not repubs who wear earth tones. If we can’t rid the Democratic Party of these DLC and New-Dem DINO’s then it’s time to leave the party and let it become as relevant as the Whigs.
Homeowners who consciously bought more homes than they could afford shouldn’t be bailed out.
The research I’ve been doing on FHA and HUD loans here in my hell hole has turned up, as I see it, a large enough percentage of out and out fraud in some of these mortgages. From the bank to the broker-appraiser-settlement company and even the borrower.
It doesn’t make sense to me that a single 30 something would get a 99% loan on an obviously inflated property to less than a year later have the property default if they were approved for the loan. I’m also finding the government backs the shitty primary loan dollar for dollar and then resells the property for less than 50% of what they(we/taxpayer) paid. In those cases I don’t think the borrower ever had any intention of covering the monthly payments. Questions, questions….what were the incentives? Obviously for the bank and the broker it’s the commissions, for the appraiser, et al it’s the fees, for the borrower? Only a full AG investigation would find that out. I don’t see every one of these loans and borrowers who are under water being of the most honest and scrupulous kind. This is not to blame the fraudulent borrower or to paint all borrowers with that brush. Having worked in the RE field for over 30 years for a long time the mortgage industry had a program that worked, that weeded out the unqualified, and then it didn’t and when the rules changed the crooks in suits (remember the Savings and Loan crisis?) walked through the door. With more than enough dimwits willing to take the sales pitch and sign on the bottom line taking their “windfall” excess from the too big to afford loan spending it to then finding their only choice was to just walk away.
A lot of fraud that the state AG’s and Holder’s FBI should be putting people in jail for, but that’s looking backward and also the reason Elizabeth Warren won’t be appointed to head the Consumer Agency as I believe she knows this has gone on.
Obama on taking office, IMO, was handed a giant pile of financial crap and if we were to find out just how bad it is would, because we seldom pay attention, blame him and the Democrats and put the people who were mostly responsible back in charge. For now we get this carnival side show which we obviously aren’t fooled by.
Some homes – purchased many years ago under a completely different mortgage system – are in foreclosure through no fault of the homeowner who ended upside down, too.
Too many are quite ready to blame the homeowners for taking out unrealistic loans to buy ridiculously priced properties at the top of the market. Well, *maybe* some of those people are responsible for their plight, but not everyone is.
Where I presently live, my landlady’s house – purchased over 13 years ago – is coming perilously close to being upside down. In the coming months, she could well end up in that position. Any investment is a risk, for sure, but the other side of the story here is that a percentage of home owners didn’t invest unrealistically or unwisely, but they’re still in this boat.
I’m glad that I don’t own a home. I have long been concerned about situations like this.
HAMP is despicable. Caveat emptor come November and the voting booth. I fail to see how anything could be *worse.*
But banks and insurance companies that bought more “assets” than they could afford should be bailed out? Once again: Pond Scum.
These clowns and crooks can’t have it both ways. They all — to a person — say there was no way the bubble could have been foreseen. This scumbag Geithner says NO ONE saw it coming. That means that the vast majority of folks who supposedly “bought more house than they could afford” would have been fine if the rise in prices — the bubble that Timmy didn’t see coming — would have continued. But it didn’t.
And asshole Geithner has NO trouble bailing out the banks who never saw it coming — but not the homeowners?
This “bought more house than they could afford” bullshit is obnoxious. The homeowners were no more irresponsible than the bankers. But Timmy is willing to cover their bad bets, but not those of the real victims.
I referred this to one of my clients, a BK attorney in SoCal. He’s very smart. We’ll discuss Monday after he’s done his research.
The problem with cramdown is it unfairly favors one of two homeowners who paid the exact same price for the exact same house. The one that can’t make the payment gets a government mandated price break. Then when it comes time to sell, the one that couldn’t make the payment makes a bigger profit than the one that made the payment. I don’t give a damn who gave what to which bank or which bank did what to whom, that is not right. If you want cramdown the only way to make it fair is to give it to every homeowner whether they are upside down, rightside up, or paid off in which case you write them a check. If fraud was committed in the mortgage process and can be proved, that’s a different issue. But to give cramdown just because someone can’t make the payment they agreed to make, is not in any way fair to those who are making the agreed upon payment.
I think your unicorn is hungry. Seriously, you’d pick McCain and Palin to run the country because you are upset with DINOS? Really?
Works for me.
Was HAMP, and other programs ostensibly set up to help ordinary people, entirely cynical window dressing? Were these projects designed to give the impression of concern and help while actually doing nothing? There are economic commentators who have openly opined that foreclosure/resale is the best way to do clear off the litter of the real estate implosion.
Obama really does love to suck that banker dick, doesn’t he? I can’t wait for his starry-eyed minions to start calling for money. At this point, I really don’t give a flying fuck if he loses. A Republican would be worse? Not fucking likely.
The problem with cramdown– There isn’t. The bankers “lose”? So fucking what? Your neighbor isn’t “punished”? So fucking what?
I am on my way out the door so don’t have time to find the necessary link, but as I understood cram down, I believe it was going to be made sort of fair to homeowners and banks. Let’s say 2 people buy a house for 200K. Both houses go underwater and person A can not keep up with the payment.
Cram down reduces the principle to 150K and person’s A payments. If both go to sell at 250K 10 years later, person A pays the 50K to the bank — essentially paying off the cram down and the pockets the additional 50K, same as person B that could pay the entire time.
Now Person B would still be paying more interest but person B would also benefit from peron A’s house not going into foreclosure and reducing the value of the home. And person B would lose money if the house had to be sold ahead of getting back above the principle owed, but we sink or swim together and I would rather swim and help drag my fellow American’s along that fall on hard times. Most did not buy a house on speculation but to enjoy owning property.
How many would own a house but for the income tax deduction on the interest? It just wouldn’t make sense.
You are correct about that one! If you can not put down half, it probably is not worth it in the long run. Found that out the hard way when I bought a rental property in which I lived on one of the 4 floors — it was money into a sink hole despite having over 20% down.
I own again but have over 1/2 down and just a condo in the city where I plan to retire in 20 years — unless Congress continues to sit on its hands and delivers us into a Japan style economy. Then I may go bankrupt!
The way I would put it is “It just wouldn’t be possible”. I think more than a few homeowners are realizing that it doesn’t really make sense.
Excellent boil-down
When faced with options like that why would they help their client(?) the family with a mortgage underwater. My mortgage holder, contacted my wife and I praising us for our credit, or regular payments and asked if we would be interested in them lowering our mortgage payments?
Suspecting a bait and switch, what they really wanted was for us to raise our monthly payments and therefore we would qualify for a quicker payout. When I asked about any improvements on the principle they, curiously weren’t interested. So much for the rewards for staying current. I suppose I needn’t explain that our mortgage holder received countless TAXPAYERS DOLLARS… to ease their own burdens.
How nice for them.
Maybe if people had other escapes they won’t need liquidation.
“Equity Warrants”.
Because of negative equity, about 15 million potential home buyers are “locked-out” of today’s housing market and are ineligible for re-financing their present mortgage.
Proposal- 1) The underwater homeowner could–without bank approval–put their home on the market and accept any reasonable offer. To cover the loan payoff shortage, an Equity Warrant (e.g. IOU) would be issued granting the holder a 2nd lien against the future equity of any home the issuer subsequently owns (within the next 5, 10, or perhaps 20 years). When the term of the warrant expires, and is called, the holder of the warrant would convert the warrant to a traditional 2nd mortgage. If at the expiration of the warrant, the warrant issuer still doesn’t have enough equity to settle the debt, a promissory note could fill the gap.
2) Likewise, in a refinancing scenario, the negative equity could be reconciled with an Equity Warrant.
–For the bank it’s an even exchange of a “less than” fully collateralized mortgage for an un-collateralized IOU. The positive benefit is the elimination of a potential default which would likely cost substantially more than excepting the warrant, even if it expires worthless.
–For the homeowner it’s an escape, trading a bad situation for a potentially better situation.
–For the housing market it’s a potential new buyer.
–No taxpayer money needed.