Banks have been delaying putting many houses into foreclosure. So the overhang in supply is even larger. Meanwhile the MERS disaster lurks out there over everything. Meredith Whitney has been saying recently that prices have another 10% to fall. I would say at least that much. I hate to keep writing “As many of us have been saying for a long time” but you have to understand all of these deteriorating fundamentals have been around for years now. The housing bubble blew up 3 years ago. Those of us who have been watching this stuff know that all the major economic fault lines have either been left unaddressed or ineffectively addressed. When housing prices go back to the vicinity of what they were in 2001, that is pre-bubble, we will know we have a major, and probably defensible, bottom. (Really bad economic conditions could send prices even through this floor, but that’s another story.) HAMP and other stupid/malicious programs like it mean nothing. They aren’t even good PR.

It is interesting that you mention 2001 as the ‘pre-bubble’ point. I just received my county assessment and in one year the assessment dropped 33% and the assessement is exactly the same as it was in 2001. In my area homes are not selling and the offered for sale homes are scarce. I doubt if the bottom is here yet.

I never thought I would agree with Boehner, but Geithner and Summers need to be fired! They have protected banks profits above all else for the past year and a half. Just last week, they tried to spin HAMP as a success because it helped “stabilized the system” (i.e., protected the banks). Someone needs to tell them that HAMP was supposed to help homeowners! Not help the bank, the banks had their bailout. They need to be replaced by people who will do thing to stop the downward spiral in the housing market–like cramming down mortgages through fannie and freddie.

Edit: for clarification, I don’t agree with Boehner on anything else he said today, just that one point.

Who coulda anticipated.

My favorite part of the report, which I heard on cnbc this morning, is that 30% were all-cash purchasers, aka rich vultures. That pretty much captures the fundamentals of the current U.S. economy.

Summers & Geithener are too stoopid to even be sensible enough to have the deer-in-the-headlights look.

MERS?

Sorry for my ignorance.

Mortgage Electronic Registry System

As usual, expectations are out of whack with all 74 analysts/econmists/witch doctors surveyed by Bloomberg guessing a higher number than what was actually reported. Traditional models simply don’t work in our non-gaussian economy.

Money McBags has more at http://www.whengeniusprevailed.com

As the working and middle class continue to be decimated one can almost hear Rahm Emmanuel say “let them eat eggs.”

I agree, the price of houses needs to fall. Further, there will be weak demand until the ecomomy recovers, ie unemployment goes down. But I do not expect houses to ever recover the prices they once held two or three years ago. I am not sure what the bottom is, it may be 2001 prices or it may be lower. It is no longer a good long term investment and I’m not sure anyone knows how far it needs to go yet. HAMP was simply a program long before its time and was doomed to fail from day one.

Thanks.

I have NO problem with this particular “crash”. Housing has been so overpriced it’s ridiculous. I live in Myrtle Beach, S.C., and you ought to see the shit (the NEW shit…) they were selling for 300K down here.

Complaining about the drop in houseing prices is like weeping for the poor realtors who are no longer making a killing.

Same thing as using oil prices as a yardstick for economic well-being. It’s nothing but fatcat propaganda.

If Obama could arrange for the pump price of a gallon of gas to drop to $1.25, it would be worth some seats in the mid-terms.

“HAMP and other stupid/malicious programs like it mean nothing”

Wow! well said Hugh.These programs were designed to help the bankters….ordinary Americans….well seems the WH don’t give a damn.

Has anyone ever seen this in Americans politics prior ?…..The Prez who had ridiculously high support from ordinary Americans….seem hell bent on putting his foot on the necks of the very people who went out of their way & campaigned for him to be Prez……I have never seen anything like it…except for where dictators rule….iT’S almost like he has disdain for poor & ordinary Americans…..remember he(Prez) said, he admires savvy businessmen,that would be the Wall Street criminals.

here’s another thing you didn’t mention david;

with lower housing prices comes lower assessment rates, less revenue for local governance means cutbacks galore

Status quo, McGarth. Protecting the ol’ status quo.

There are problems with the crash in housing prices, and it has a negative affect on some who will suffer or suffer more, which is unfortunate. But I also agree that the housing prices simply need to come down to earth, aka to something realistic, esp given that most citizens these days(excluding the greedheads in the top 5% or maybe just 3%) are probably seeing various reductions in pay checks and/or benefits.

Housing prices were absurb out west, esp NV and CA, and way too many houses were built on the notion that somehow there were loads of rubes out there to buy them. I’ve witnessed insane housing prices that just don’t make any sense for what one would get.

But I also disagree with lowering gasoline prices. The US taxpayer already pays to subsidize gas prices, so it seems cheap at the pump. The only way we might see our way forward to better public transporation systems is if citizens start realizing that our addiction to oil must change.

I heard some right wing nut (cavuto) say they didn’t think obama would run for a second term

man oh man do I hope that wing nut is correct

Yes, another unfortunate outcome, that is true.

Meanwhile, there’s an ad for ITT Technical School, touting their house design reading courses, so you can prepare for all the jobs in the construction industry. An educational institution with NO command of the obvious.

Have none of you ever heard of Chicken Little? The sky is not falling, real estate is now and has ever been cyclical, it runs in 10-15 year cycles. So by 2020 or sooner we’ll be back where we were in 2006. I read all this same stuff back in 1990-1995 after the last bust.

Also I have a friend in Denver (a carpenter) who finally got a job after 18 months so things may be looking up sooner than you think…

I play tennis in a park that had lighting till eleven o’clock in the summer, it costs 5 dollars an hour and it’s the only way most people can afford tennis

they cut that back to 10 and now that they cut staff they turn lights off indiscriminantly whenever there is nobody to man the signup booth

Nice for your friend, but chances are that’s a lagged influence of the stim. Once the stim wears off, which the existing home sales is a sign of, there is little left to sustain the recovery.

What about hot air?

Too much hot air caused the bubble, now burst, to begin with. *g*

I.E., been there, done that; several times, in fact.

Obama has turned out to be a rather interesting president… one hardly anyone likes with the exception of the non critical black voter who us thrilled that that barrier has been broken and given him a pass.

He surely fooled a whole bunch of folks who saw him as a later day FDR who would turn the power of the federal government to solve problems facing the people as opposed to promoting a healthy business environment. We thought everyone who was anyone has realized that trickle down – what good for biz is good for you was bogus. And in steps Obama and immediately throws billions at the top telling us without them we down here won’t see daylight. Was he a trojan horse candidate of the “establishment”? Hard to say. Was he bribed or bought out or threatened to do their bidding? Hard to say.

The bottom line is that Obama has been a terrible president. He left the Bush crooks go scott free, he let their odious “security state” policies remain because he wanted to look forward and not back, he gave the insurance industry a windfall disguised as health care which would benefit the people, he certainly didn’t get us out of Iraq, just basically declared it now not newsworthy, he escalated Afghanistan and opened up another illegal war in Pakistan, and he certainly has given the MIC a haircut in rather difficult times. He’s McCain or Bush lite or maybe not even lite! YUCK.

We was swept in with a slew of democrats and then went on about bipartisanism and his tribe of rival nonsense which gave the people nothing and gave the right every opportunity to block and progress. He locked out and ridiculed progressives and kept W appointees in the DOD etc. The voters are now pissed to sht and are about to throw out the dems promising even worse than what we have now.

I’ve screamed for term limits and would like to see them ALL tossed out… every last one of them. But that won’t happen.

And the economy is fall into the toilet with no end in sight.

Hiya, SanderO. Good summary.

How ya been?

fine I suppose, taking it like the rest of us… still have the boat.

Lots of sunny days this summer to use it, up until a couple of days ago. Hang in there.

one hardly anyone likes with the exception of the non critical black voter who us thrilled that that barrier has been broken and given him a pass.

Where do you get this from? You haven’t heard maxine waters complaining about Obummer not doing enough for the 16% unemployment in the black community? They support Dems because they are scared shitless about what happens if the rethugs take over – not because they are enamored of Obama.

That’s not reassuring. In my area, that was when the market started sliding downhill.

I hate to be in the same basket at that nut, but it should not surprise anyone. He may see the next time as all uphill and to help his party maybe he should bow out.

We are seeing similar stuff in CA with State & local parks either not being maintained at all, being closed, having shorter hours, having fees increased, etc. There have been a series of articles in some local papers about how cut-backs in Parks & Rec staff at various state & local levels have resulted in a range of problems, such as not enough staff to supervise boaters (often drinking too much) on weekends at busy lakes, and other such things.

Most citizens don’t care much right now, but as time goes by – and the parks start showing ever more signs of wear & tear (or get closed down completely) – *maybe* some will wake up. If there’s less housing tax monies collected due to falling prices, citizens are going to have to start deciding what’s important to pay for… which may mean the dreaded raising of taxes. Unfortunately everyone these days wants everything to be free.

Yep. Tired of hearing the “experts” say that housing prices need to rebound. No they don’t. It was a bubble. It sucks if you’re trying to sell, but for people like me who watched 800 sf crapshacks in LA rise 20 percent a year and fall back to “only” $500K, prices can keep going down.

Cyclical sure, but we had the mother of all RE bubbles. This is going to take a long time to shake out and that’s fine with me. Returning to 2006 levels by 2020 will happen only if there’s another bubble.

Yeah, cyclical was what happened here 1991-1997. From 2001 on it was “comical” followed by “criminal” then “biblical”. I could deal with 4X given the low interest rates but we’re still at 8-9X in LA, with 13+% unemployment, and that’s just bullshit.