Over 25,000 ballots remain uncounted in the Alaska Republican primary for US Senate, where Tea Party candidate Joe Miller leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski by about 1,688 votes. That makes it at least possible for Murkowski to overtake Miller. Conflicting reports show that those uncounted ballots would either hurt or help Murkowski’s bid, depending on who you believe.

The possibility exists for a three-way race, if Miller (or for that matter, if Murkowski) prevails. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams will be the Democratic candidate, but Murkowski could run a write in campaign or take the Libertarian Party ballot line to get into the race. Polls show she would be competitive if she did so. However, the Libertarian Party in Alaska appears to have closed the door on one of these options.

The Executive Committee of the Alaska Libertarian Party held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss the contested primary results in the Republican Senate primary. All 5 board members met in an undisclosed location in northeast Anchorage to hammer out a decision as to how to move forward [...]

On Sunday morning, over coffee and donuts, the ExComm voted unanimously, 5 to 0 to deny the Senator the ballot line. There was no malice intended. ALP Chair Kohlhaas has repeatedly stated that she is a nice lady, and the ALP was flattered by the offer.

Now, the bigger question to me is whether the ALP would give their position to Miller, if Murkowski won out. You can see in the fuller post why that would almost certainly happen.

Without a ballot line, Murkowski would have to run as a write-in candidate, a long shot at best, although she does have decent favorables in the state.

It looks to me like McAdams and Miller will end up in the general election battle. The only question is whether Murkowski joins them as the Republican nominee, a write-in, or not at all.